public async Task <PredictionResponse> Post(PredictionRequest request)
{
var year = DateTime.Now.Year;
var tasks = new Dictionary <int, AsyncUnaryCall <CalculatePredictionResponse> >();
var yearAverages = new Dictionary <int, double>();
for (int y = year; y >= year - 4; y--)
{
tasks.Add(y, agents[y % agents.Count].GetProbabilityAsync(request.ToAgentRequest(y)));
}
foreach (var task in tasks)
{
yearAverages.Add(task.Key, (await task.Value).Probability);
}
var expectation = calculator.GetAverageOfPreviousYears(yearAverages);
var recentCrimes = await statisticProvider.GetCrimesOneMonthBack();
var lastMonthData = calculator.FindDaysSinceLastCrime(CaseSimple.FromApiRequest(request), recentCrimes);
var probability = calculator.CalculateCrimeProbability(expectation, lastMonthData);
return(new PredictionResponse {
Probability = probability
});
}
public void PredictNextCrimeType(IEnumerable <CaseSimple> disctictScores, CaseSimple givenCase) => disctictScores .OrderBy(x => x.DistanceTo(givenCase)) .Take(15) .GroupBy(x => x.Type) .ToDictionary(grp => grp.Key, grp => grp.Count()) .OrderByDescending(x => x.Value) .First();
public override async Task <CalculatePredictionResponse> GetProbability(CalculatePredictionRequest request, ServerCallContext context)
{
Console.WriteLine("GetProbability average request recieved");
var dbData = await statisticProvider.CalculateAllCrimesByDistrctsByYear(request.Year);
var res = posCalculator.CalculateAverageCrimes(CaseSimple.FromAgentRequest(request), dbData);
return(new CalculatePredictionResponse()
{
Probability = res
});
}
public int FindDaysSinceLastCrime(CaseSimple given, IEnumerable <CaseSimple> lastMonthData)
{
var lastCase = lastMonthData.OrderBy(item => item.DistanceTo(given)).FirstOrDefault();
if (lastCase == null)
{
return(30);
}
var time = new DateTime(given.Year, given.Month, given.Date) - new DateTime(lastCase.Year, lastCase.Month, lastCase.Date);
return(time.Days);
}
/// <summary>
/// <para> The significance is a number between 0 and 1 </para>
/// <para> The closer the distance is to 0, the closer the significance is to 1 </para>
/// <para> Distances of 100 and above will have 0 significance </para>
/// </summary>
private double GetSignificance(CaseSimple first, CaseSimple second)
{
var distance = first.DistanceTo(second);
return((distance > 100) ? 0 : Math.Cos(distance / 65));
}
private double CountIncidentsInTheArea(CaseSimple given, IEnumerable <CaseSimple> cases) => cases.Sum(item => GetSignificance(given, item));
=> 1 - Math.Pow((1 - averagePerDay), daysSinceLastCrime); // some sort of geometric distribution, commulative formula
public double CalculateAverageCrimes(CaseSimple given, IEnumerable <CaseSimple> yearlySamples)
=> CountIncidentsInTheArea(given, yearlySamples) / 365;
