private static int GameProjection(NFLGame g, string playerTeamCode, string playerCategory, string playerRole)
{
var projection = 0;
if (playerRole == Constants.K_ROLE_STARTER)
{
switch (playerCategory)
{
case Constants.K_QUARTERBACK_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeTdp : g.ProjectedAwayTdp;
break;
case Constants.K_RUNNINGBACK_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeTdr : g.ProjectedAwayTdr;
break;
case Constants.K_RECEIVER_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeTdp / 2 : g.ProjectedAwayTdp / 2;
break;
case Constants.K_KICKER_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeFg : g.ProjectedAwayFg;
break;
}
}
return(projection);
}
public int PredictSteals(NflTeam team, string season, int week)
{
// Predict the number of Interceptions the team will make
int ints = 0;
// who are the opponents
NflTeam opponent = team.OpponentFor(season, week);
if (opponent != null)
{
// not on a bye
int pdInts = ConvertRating(team.PrRating());
int poInts = ConvertRating(opponent.PpRating());
ints += (pdInts - poInts) - 1; // will range from 3 to -5
}
// What is the Game
NFLGame game = team.GameFor(season, week);
if (game != null)
{
if (game.IsHome(team.TeamCode))
{
ints += 1;
}
}
if (ints < 0)
{
ints = 0;
}
return(ints);
}
public Int32 PredictTDc(NFLPlayer plyr, string season, int week)
{
// Predict the number of FGs this player will kick
int tdc = 0;
// starters only
if (plyr.IsStarter() && (plyr.PlayerCat == RosterLib.Constants.K_RECEIVER_CAT))
{
if (plyr.CurrTeam.Ratings.Equals("CCCCCC"))
{
plyr.CurrTeam.SetRecord(season);
}
// who are the opponents
NflTeam opponent = plyr.CurrTeam.OpponentFor(season, week);
if (opponent != null)
{
if (opponent.Ratings.Equals("CCCCCC"))
{
opponent.SetRecord(season); // Incase not initialised
}
// not on a bye
tdc = 1;
int diff = ConvertRating(plyr.CurrTeam.PoRating()) - ConvertRating(opponent.PdRating());
if (diff > 0)
{
tdc += 1;
}
if (diff > 2)
{
tdc += 1;
}
if (diff < -2)
{
tdc -= 1;
}
}
// What is the Game
NFLGame game = plyr.CurrTeam.GameFor(season, week);
if (game != null)
{
if (game.IsHome(plyr.CurrTeam.TeamCode))
{
tdc += 1;
}
if (game.IsBadWeather())
{
tdc -= 1;
}
}
tdc = plyr.IsTe() ? Convert.ToInt32(tdc * .25M) : Convert.ToInt32(tdc * .5M);
}
return(tdc);
}
private int RankPoints(NFLPlayer player, NFLGame game)
{
decimal points = 0;
points = PlayerSpread(game.GetSpread(), game.IsHome(player.CurrTeam.TeamCode));
if (player.PlayerRole.Equals(RosterLib.Constants.K_ROLE_STARTER))
{
points += 14; // get 2 TD if you are a starter
}
return((int)points);
}
public Int32 PredictTDr(NFLPlayer plyr, string season, int week)
{
// Predict the number of FGs this player will kick
int tDr = 0;
// starters only
if (plyr.IsStarter() && (plyr.PlayerCat == RosterLib.Constants.K_RUNNINGBACK_CAT) && plyr.IsRusher())
{
if (plyr.CurrTeam.Ratings.Equals("CCCCCC"))
{
plyr.CurrTeam.SetRecord(season, skipPostseason: false);
}
// who are the opponents
NflTeam opponent = plyr.CurrTeam.OpponentFor(season, week);
if (opponent != null)
{
if (opponent.Ratings.Equals("CCCCCC"))
{
opponent.SetRecord(season, skipPostseason: false); // Incase not initialised
}
// not on a bye
tDr = 1;
int diff = ConvertRating(plyr.CurrTeam.RoRating()) - ConvertRating(opponent.RdRating());
if (diff > 1)
{
tDr += 1;
}
if (diff > 3)
{
tDr += 1;
}
if (diff < -1)
{
tDr -= 1;
}
}
// What is the Game
NFLGame game = plyr.CurrTeam.GameFor(season, week);
if (game != null)
{
if (game.IsHome(plyr.CurrTeam.TeamCode))
{
tDr += 1;
}
if (game.IsBadWeather())
{
tDr -= 1;
}
}
}
return(tDr);
}
public int GameProjection(
NFLGame g,
string playerTeamCode,
string playerCategory,
string playerRole)
{
var projection = 0;
if (playerRole != Constants.K_ROLE_STARTER)
{
return(projection);
}
// is a starter
switch (playerCategory)
{
case Constants.K_QUARTERBACK_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode)
? g.ProjectedHomeTdp : g.ProjectedAwayTdp;
break;
case Constants.K_RUNNINGBACK_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode)
? g.ProjectedHomeTdr : g.ProjectedAwayTdr;
break;
case Constants.K_RECEIVER_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode)
? g.ProjectedHomeTdp / 2 : g.ProjectedAwayTdp / 2;
break;
case Constants.K_KICKER_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode)
? g.ProjectedHomeFg : g.ProjectedAwayFg;
break;
}
#if DEBUG
Announce($"Game {g.GameKey()} projection for {playerTeamCode} {playerCategory} {playerRole} is {projection}");
#endif
return(projection);
}
public Int32 PredictSacks(
NflTeam team,
string season,
int week)
{
// Predict the number of Sacks the team will make
int sacks = 0;
// who are the opponents
NflTeam opponent = team.OpponentFor(
season,
week);
if (opponent != null)
{
// not on a bye
sacks += 1;
int prSacks = ConvertRating(team.PrRating());
int ppSacks = ConvertRating(opponent.PpRating());
sacks += (prSacks - ppSacks);
}
// What is the Game
NFLGame game = team.GameFor(season, week);
if (game != null)
{
if (game.IsHome(team.TeamCode))
{
sacks += 1;
}
if (game.IsBadWeather())
{
sacks += 1;
}
}
if (sacks < 0)
{
sacks = 0;
}
return(sacks);
}
public Int32 PredictFGs(NFLPlayer plyr, string season, int week)
{
// Predict the number of FGs this player will kick
int fg = 0;
// starters only
if (plyr.IsStarter())
{
// who does he play for
NflTeam kickersTeam = plyr.CurrTeam;
// who are the opponents
NflTeam opponent = kickersTeam.OpponentFor(season, week);
if (opponent != null)
{
// not on a bye
fg += 1;
if (opponent.IsGoodDefence())
{
fg += 1;
}
}
// What is the Game
NFLGame game = kickersTeam.GameFor(season, week);
if (game != null)
{
if (game.IsHome(kickersTeam.TeamCode))
{
fg += 1;
}
if (game.IsDomeGame())
{
fg += 1;
}
if (game.IsBadWeather())
{
fg -= 1;
}
}
}
return(fg);
}
private void LoadTeam(NflTeam team, string teamCode)
{
var ep = new EpMetric();
var metricsHt = new Hashtable();
var dg = _tflWs.GetAllGames(teamCode, Season);
var games = dg.Tables["sched"];
foreach (DataRow drg in games.Rows)
{
var g = new NFLGame(drg);
if (!g.IsRecent())
{
continue;
}
if (!g.MetricsCalculated)
{
g.TallyMetrics(String.Empty);
}
var hashCode = string.Format("{0}{1}{2}", teamCode, g.Season, g.Week);
if (g.IsHome(teamCode))
{
ep.HomeTeam = teamCode;
ep.OffTDp = g.HomeTDp;
ep.OffTDr = g.HomeTDr;
ep.OffSakAllowed = g.HomeSaKa;
ep.DefTDp = g.AwayTDp;
ep.DefTDr = g.AwayTDr;
ep.DefSak = g.AwaySaKa;
ep.HomePasses = g.HomePasses;
ep.HomeRuns = g.HomeRuns;
}
else
{
ep.AwayTeam = g.AwayTeam;
ep.OffTDp = g.AwayTDp;
ep.OffTDr = g.AwayTDr;
ep.OffSakAllowed = g.AwaySaKa;
ep.DefTDp = g.HomeTDp;
ep.DefTDr = g.HomeTDr;
ep.DefSak = g.HomeSaKa;
ep.AwayPasses = g.AwayPasses;
ep.AwayRuns = g.AwayRuns;
}
if (DoBreakdowns)
{
AddBreakdown(teamCode, ep, g);
}
if (ep.Total() <= 0)
{
continue;
}
ep.WeekSeed = Utility.WeekSeed(g.Season, g.Week);
if (!metricsHt.ContainsKey(hashCode))
{
metricsHt.Add(hashCode, ep);
}
}
team.SetMetrics(metricsHt);
#if DEBUG
//Utility.PrintIndexAndKeysAndValues( metricsHt );
#endif
}
// rank points are used to sort players
public decimal RankPoints(NFLPlayer player, NFLGame game, NflTeam opponent)
{
decimal points = 0;
#region short cut
if (RankMaster.Contains(player.PlayerCode))
{
var rankedPlayer = ( NFLPlayer )RankMaster[player.PlayerCode];
return(rankedPlayer.Points);
}
#endregion short cut
#region Get the average output for the last 3 games
// Always start with the Average points in their last 3 games, if 0 and QB use 14
if (game != null)
{
if (player.PlayerRole.Equals(Constants.K_ROLE_STARTER))
{
var avgPoints = AveragePoints(player);
// Rookies and injured players may not have played in the last 3 games
if (player.PlayerCat.Equals("1"))
{
if (avgPoints.Equals(0.0M))
{
avgPoints = 14.0M; // avergage for a QB
}
}
if (player.PlayerCat.Equals("2"))
{
if (avgPoints.Equals(0.0M))
{
avgPoints = 8.0M; // avergage for a RB
}
}
if (player.PlayerCat.Equals("3"))
{
if (avgPoints.Equals(0.0M))
{
avgPoints = 6.0M; // avergage for a RB
}
}
else if (player.PlayerCat.Equals("4"))
{
if (avgPoints.Equals(0.0M))
{
avgPoints = 6.0M; // avergage day for a PK
}
}
points += avgPoints;
}
}
#endregion Get the average output for the last 3 games
#region Consider the likely result
decimal spreadModifier = 1; // no modification
if (IncludeSpread)
{
if (game != null)
{
spreadModifier = PlayerSpread(game.GetSpread(), game.IsHome(player.CurrTeam.TeamCode)) / 1;
}
points *= spreadModifier;
}
#endregion Consider the likely result
#region factor in the quality of the opponent
if (IncludeRatingModifier)
{
if (opponent != null)
{
var oppRating = player.OpponentRating(opponent.Ratings);
var ratingModifier = RatingModifier(oppRating);
points *= ratingModifier;
}
}
#endregion factor in the quality of the opponent
player.Points = points;
RankMaster.Add(player.PlayerCode, player); // save points for later
#if DEBUG
// verbose audit trail of the calculations
//Announce(string.Format(
// "{0,-16} has {1,4:#0.#} r pts- spr {2,4:#0.#} avgFP last 3 {3,4:##.#} rating mod {4,4:#0.#} {5}",
// player.PlayerNameShort, points, spreadModifier, avgPoints, ratingModifier, oppRating ) );
#endif
return(points);
}
