public static void CheckH2H(PredictionData data, Game game)
{
var leagueRepo = new LeagueDataRepository();
var analysisRepo = new AnalysisDataRepository();
var homeTeamId = game.HomeTeamId;
var awayTeamId = game.AwayTeamId;
var h2hStats = analysisRepo.GetTeamsHeadToHead(homeTeamId, awayTeamId);
var teamsHistory = leagueRepo.GetTeamsHistory(homeTeamId, awayTeamId).Where(g => g.Result != 0)
.OrderByDescending(th => th.Date).ToList();
bool homeTeamMapsToTeam1 = h2hStats.Team1Id == homeTeamId;
int lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = -1, lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = -1, lastDrawGamesAgo = -1;
int lastBttsYes = -1, lastBttsNo = -1;
int lastTotalOver = -1, lastTotalUnder = -1;
for (int i = 0; i < teamsHistory.Count; i++)
{
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo > -1 && lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo > -1 && lastDrawGamesAgo > -1 &&
lastTotalOver > -1 && lastTotalUnder > -1 && lastBttsYes > -1 && lastBttsNo > -1)
{
break;
}
var tempGame = teamsHistory[i];
if (tempGame.HomeTeamId == homeTeamId)
{
switch (tempGame.Result)
{
case GameResult.HomeWin:
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.Draw:
if (lastDrawGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastDrawGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.AwayWin:
if (lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
}
}
else
{
switch (tempGame.Result)
{
case GameResult.HomeWin:
if (lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.Draw:
if (lastDrawGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastDrawGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.AwayWin:
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
}
}
var totalOver = (tempGame.AwayTeamGoals + tempGame.HomeTeamGoals) > 2;
if (totalOver && (lastTotalOver == -1))
{
lastTotalOver = i;
}
if (!totalOver && (lastTotalUnder == -1))
{
lastTotalUnder = i;
}
var bttsYes = (tempGame.AwayTeamGoals > 0) && (tempGame.HomeTeamGoals > 0);
if (bttsYes && (lastBttsYes == -1))
{
lastBttsYes = i;
}
if (!bttsYes && (lastBttsNo == -1))
{
lastBttsNo = i;
}
}
double averageHomeTeamWinFreq, averageAwayTeamWinFreq, averageDrawsFreq;
double averageBttsYesFreq, averageBttsNoFreq;
double averageTotalOverFreq, averageTotalUnderFreq;
if (homeTeamMapsToTeam1)
{
averageHomeTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team1WinsPercentage;
averageAwayTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team2WinsPercentage;
}
else
{
averageAwayTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team1WinsPercentage;
averageHomeTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team2WinsPercentage;
}
averageDrawsFreq = 1 / h2hStats.DrawsPercentage;
averageBttsYesFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.BTTS_Yes;
averageBttsNoFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.BTTS_No;
averageTotalOverFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.GamesOver2_5;
averageTotalUnderFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.GamesUnder2_5;
var minFreq = averageHomeTeamWinFreq;
if (averageAwayTeamWinFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageAwayTeamWinFreq;
}
if (averageDrawsFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageDrawsFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageHomeTeamWinFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageDrawsFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageAwayTeamWinFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
minFreq = averageBttsYesFreq;
if (averageBttsNoFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageBttsNoFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageBttsNoFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageBttsYesFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
minFreq = averageTotalOverFreq;
if (averageTotalUnderFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageTotalUnderFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageTotalOverFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageTotalUnderFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
//differences between last time some result happend and average result frequency
var diffHomeTeamWins = lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo - averageHomeTeamWinFreq;
var diffAwayTeamWins = lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo - averageAwayTeamWinFreq;
var diffDraws = lastDrawGamesAgo - averageDrawsFreq;
var diffBttsYes = lastBttsYes - averageBttsYesFreq;
var diffBttsNo = lastBttsNo - averageBttsNoFreq;
var diffTotalOver = lastTotalOver - averageTotalOverFreq;
var diffTotalUnder = lastTotalUnder - averageTotalUnderFreq;
var maxDiff = diffHomeTeamWins;
if (diffAwayTeamWins > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffAwayTeamWins;
}
if (diffDraws > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffDraws;
}
if (maxDiff == diffHomeTeamWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffDraws)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffAwayTeamWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
maxDiff = diffBttsYes;
if (diffBttsNo > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffBttsNo;
}
if (maxDiff == diffBttsYes)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffBttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
maxDiff = diffTotalOver;
if (diffTotalUnder > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffTotalUnder;
}
if (maxDiff == diffTotalOver)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffTotalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
}
