/// <summary>
/// Segment II (weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Twelve: (p 74)
/// Big Scoring Teams
/// As in the first 4 games, I look to bet against a favourite that scored a total of
/// 30 or more points in each of the last two weeks in winning efforts.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool BigScoringTeam( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
bool isBigScorer = false;
if ( upcomingGame.IsFavourite( team ) )
{
NFLGame prevGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( prevGame.Won( team ) )
if ( prevGame.ScoreFor( team ) >= KBigScore )
{
NFLGame prevPrevGame = team.PreviousGame( prevGame.GameDate );
if ( prevGame.Won( team ) )
{
if ( prevPrevGame.ScoreFor( team ) >= KBigScore )
isBigScorer = true;
}
}
}
return isBigScorer;
}
internal static bool LastGamePhonyLoss(NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame)
{
bool isLastGamePhonyLoss = false;
NFLGame prevGame = team.PreviousGame(upcomingGame.GameDate);
if (prevGame.WasPhonyWin())
{
if (prevGame.Lost(team))
{
isLastGamePhonyLoss = true;
}
}
return isLastGamePhonyLoss;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment I (Weeks 1-4)
/// Pointer Eleven: (p 70)
/// Sandwich Game
/// I look to wager against a team ina divisional series "sandwich game".
/// A sandwich game is a non-divisional game that takes placewhen a team has just played
/// at least two straight divisional games and has at least 2 more straight divisional
/// games coming up after the non divisional contest.
/// </summary>
public static bool TeamSandwiched( NflTeam t, NFLGame nextGame )
{
bool sandwichGame = false;
if ( ! nextGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
NFLGame lastGame = t.PreviousGame( nextGame.GameDate );
if ( lastGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
NFLGame lastLastGame = t.PreviousGame( lastGame.GameDate );
if ( lastLastGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
// now what about the next game?
NFLGame nextNextGame = t.NextGame( nextGame.GameDate );
if (nextNextGame != null)
{
if (nextNextGame.IsDivisionalGame())
{
// finally another one
NFLGame nextNextNextgame = t.NextGame(nextNextGame.GameDate);
if (nextNextNextgame.IsDivisionalGame())
sandwichGame = true;
}
}
}
}
}
return sandwichGame;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II (Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Two A: (p 72)
/// Embarrasing Performances. I look to wager on a team that has _just_ suffered a humiliating loss
/// either by a big score or to a bad club. I also look to bet a team that has very poor offensive
/// or defensive numbers in their last game, or to wager against a team that has just put up
/// outstanding offensive or defensive numbers.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="t"></param>
/// <param name="when"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool TeamEmbarrased( NflTeam t, DateTime when )
{
// get their previous game
NFLGame prevGame = t.PreviousGame( when );
if ( prevGame != null )
if ( prevGame.WasRout() )
if ( prevGame.Lost( t ) )
return true;
return false;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II (Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Eleven: (p 74)
/// Under-the-Lights followup.
/// As in the first four games, I look to wager on teams that lost a rout on Sunday or
/// Monday night and look to wager against teams that won a rout under the night
/// lights of national television.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool SundayOrMondayNightRout( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
bool isSundayOrMondayNightRout = false;
NFLGame prevGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( prevGame.IsPrimeTime() )
{
if ( prevGame.WasRout() )
if ( prevGame.Lost( team ) )
isSundayOrMondayNightRout = true;
}
return isSundayOrMondayNightRout;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II (Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer: Six (p 73)
/// Out-of-Division Favourites.
/// As in games one through four, if a team has played 2 or more consecutive divisional games
/// and is now playing a nondivisional game, I look to wager against the team if they are
/// favoured by 7 or more.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool OutOfDivisionFavourites( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
var isOutOfDivisionFavourite = false;
if ( ! upcomingGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
if ( upcomingGame.IsFavourite( team ) )
{
if ( Math.Abs( upcomingGame.Spread ) >= 7 )
{
var lastGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( lastGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
var previousToLastGame = team.PreviousGame( lastGame.GameDate );
if (previousToLastGame.IsDivisionalGame())
isOutOfDivisionFavourite = true;
}
}
}
}
return isOutOfDivisionFavourite;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II ( Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Eight: (p73)
/// Monday Night Followup.
/// As in the first four games, I look to bet
/// against a team that has won and covered a Monday night game against a
/// divisional opponent, and who is now playing a non divisional team.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool MondayNightFollowUp( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
var isMnfFollowup = false;
if ( ! upcomingGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
var previousGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( previousGame.IsMondayNight() )
{
if ( previousGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
if ( previousGame.WonVsSpread( team ) )
isMnfFollowup = true;
}
}
return isMnfFollowup;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment I (Weeks 1-4)
/// Pointer Twelve: (p 71)
/// PhonyWins and Phony Losses.
/// I look to bet against a team coming off a phony win and on a team coming
/// off a phony loss.
/// In most games the team with the higher-average-gain per pass wins. If a
/// team wins a game having the lower average and the losing team committed more
/// turnovers, the team that won has gained a phony win.
/// </summary>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool LastGamePhonyWin(NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame)
{
bool isLastGamePhonyWin = false;
NFLGame prevGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( prevGame.WasPhonyWin() )
{
if ( prevGame.Won( team ) )
{
isLastGamePhonyWin = true;
}
}
return isLastGamePhonyWin;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II (Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Nine: (p73-4)
/// Large Point Swings.
/// As in the first four games, I use the 50-point swing model. In other words,
/// if Team A's margin of win and Team B's margin of loss the previous week add up
/// to 50 points or more, I am looking to bet Team B this week.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool LargePointSwing( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
bool largePointSwing = false;
NFLGame prevGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( prevGame.Lost( team ) )
{
NflTeam opponent = upcomingGame.OpponentTeam( team.TeamCode );
NFLGame prevOpponentGame = opponent.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( prevOpponentGame.Won( opponent ) )
{
int margin = prevGame.MarginOfVictory() + prevOpponentGame.MarginOfVictory();
if ( margin >= KLargePointSwingMargin )
largePointSwing = true;
}
}
return largePointSwing;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment I (Weeks 1-4)
/// Pointer Two: (p 63, 73)
/// Home Dog After Home Loss as Favourite.
/// When a team loses as a favourite at home and is the home dog next week,
/// look to bet on the underdog
/// </summary>
public static bool HomeDogBounce( NflTeam team, NFLGame nextGame )
{
bool bounce = false;
NFLGame lastGame = team.PreviousGame( nextGame.GameDate );
if ( lastGame.IsFavourite( team ) )
if ( lastGame.Lost( team ) )
{
if ( nextGame.IsDog( team ) )
if ( nextGame.IsHome( team.TeamCode ) )
bounce = true;
}
return bounce;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II ( Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Seven: (p73)
/// Follow-up Performances.
/// If a team is strong against the spread after an outright loss (I check back one year on this)
/// I will look to bet them after a loss. If a team plays poorly after a win, I will look to bet
/// against them after a win. Getting to know each team's personality is important using
/// this model.
/// Interpretation: Team is strong if they cover the spread >= 60%, week if they lose to the
/// spread >= 60%.
///
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static string FollowupPerformance( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
string followupCode = "";
decimal spreadRecord;
NFLGame previousGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( previousGame.Won( team ) )
{
spreadRecord = team.SpreadRecordAfterWin( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( spreadRecord >= KStrongAgainstSpread )
followupCode = "s";
else if ( spreadRecord <= KWeekAgainstSpread )
followupCode = "w";
}
else
{
spreadRecord = team.SpreadRecordAfterLoss( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( spreadRecord >= KStrongAgainstSpread )
followupCode = "w";
else if ( spreadRecord <= KWeekAgainstSpread )
followupCode = "s";
}
return followupCode;
}
