public static double[] PriceDataFE_pred(Series <DateTime, double> input)
{
int shiftn = 0;
var data = input.Shift(shiftn);
var MA3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var dataMA3 = (data / MA3).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var dataMA5 = (data / MA5).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var dataMA10 = (data / MA10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MA3MA5 = (MA3 / MA5).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MA3MA10 = (MA3 / MA10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MA5MA10 = (MA5 / MA10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MMP3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value.Max() / x.Value.Min()));
var MMP5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value.Max() / x.Value.Min()));
var MMP10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value.Max() / x.Value.Min()));
string dataMA3column = "PriceMA3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string dataMA5column = "PriceMA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string dataMA10column = "PriceMA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA3MA5column = "MA3MA5PRICE" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA3MA10column = "MA3MA10PRICE" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA5MA10column = "MA5MA10PRICE" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MMP3column = "MMP3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MMP5column = "MMP5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MMP10column = "MMP10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
var Features = new FrameBuilder.Columns <DateTime, string> {
{ dataMA3column, dataMA3 },
{ dataMA5column, dataMA5 },
{ dataMA10column, dataMA10 },
{ MA3MA5column, MA3MA5 },
{ MA3MA10column, MA3MA10 },
{ MA5MA10column, MA5MA10 },
{ MMP3column, MMP3 },
{ MMP5column, MMP5 },
{ MMP10column, MMP10 }
}.Frame;
var row_length = Features.RowCount;
var col_length = Features.ColumnCount;
double[] delay_1 = Features.GetRowAt <double>(row_length - 1).Values.ToArray <double>();
double[] features_pred = new double[col_length];
for (int i = 0; i < col_length; i++)
{
features_pred[i] = delay_1[i];
}
return(features_pred);
}
public static void SumOfFrame()
{
var builder = new FrameBuilder.Columns <int, string>();
builder.Add("column1", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column2", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column3", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column4", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
var df = builder.Frame;
var sum = df.Sum().GetAllValues().ToArray();
Assert.AreEqual(10.0, sum[0].Value);
Assert.AreEqual(10.0, sum[1].Value);
}
public static void FramesOrderedAfterBuild()
{
var builder = new FrameBuilder.Columns <int, string>();
builder.Add("column1", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column2", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column3", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column4", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
var frame = builder.Frame;
Assert.AreEqual(
new[] { "column1", "column2", "column3", "column4" },
frame.ColumnKeys.ToArray()
);
}
public static Frame <DateTime, string> PriceDataFE(Series <DateTime, double> input)
{
int shiftn = 1;
var data = input.Shift(shiftn);
var MA3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var dataMA3 = (data / MA3).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var dataMA5 = (data / MA5).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var dataMA10 = (data / MA10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MA3MA5 = (MA3 / MA5).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MA3MA10 = (MA3 / MA10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MA5MA10 = (MA5 / MA10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value));
var MMP3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value.Max() / x.Value.Min()));
var MMP5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value.Max() / x.Value.Min()));
var MMP10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => Math.Log(x.Value.Max() / x.Value.Min()));
string dataMA3column = "PriceMA3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string dataMA5column = "PriceMA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string dataMA10column = "PriceMA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA3MA5column = "MA3MA5PRICE" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA3MA10column = "MA3MA10PRICE" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA5MA10column = "MA5MA10PRICE" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MMP3column = "MMP3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MMP5column = "MMP5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MMP10column = "MMP10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
var Features = new FrameBuilder.Columns <DateTime, string> {
{ dataMA3column, dataMA3 },
{ dataMA5column, dataMA5 },
{ dataMA10column, dataMA10 },
{ MA3MA5column, MA3MA5 },
{ MA3MA10column, MA3MA10 },
{ MA5MA10column, MA5MA10 },
{ MMP3column, MMP3 },
{ MMP5column, MMP5 },
{ MMP10column, MMP10 }
}.Frame;
return(Features);
}
public static void CanGetColumnDynamically()
{
for (int i = 1; i <= 2; i++) // Run this twice, to check that instance references are right
{
var df =
new FrameBuilder.Columns<int, string> {
{ "Test", new SeriesBuilder<int> { {1, 11.1}, {2,22.2} }.Series }
}.Frame;
dynamic dfd = df;
Series<int, double> s0 = dfd.Test;
dynamic s1 = dfd.Test;
Assert.AreEqual(11.1, s0[1]);
Assert.AreEqual(11.1, s1[1]);
}
}
public static void CanGetColumnDynamically()
{
for (int i = 1; i <= 2; i++) // Run this twice, to check that instance references are right
{
var df =
new FrameBuilder.Columns <int, string> {
{ "Test", new SeriesBuilder <int> {
{ 1, 11.1 }, { 2, 22.2 }
}.Series }
}.Frame;
dynamic dfd = df;
Series <int, double> s0 = dfd.Test;
dynamic s1 = dfd.Test;
Assert.AreEqual(11.1, s0[1]);
Assert.AreEqual(11.1, s1[1]);
}
}
public static void CanAddSeriesDynamically()
{
for (int i = 1; i <= 2; i++) // Run this twice, to check that instance references are right
{
var df =
new FrameBuilder.Columns<int, string> {
{ "Test", new SeriesBuilder<int> { {1, 11.1}, {2,22.4} }.Series }
}.Frame;
dynamic dfd = df;
dfd.Test1 = new[] { 1, 2 };
dfd.Test2 = df.GetColumn<double>("Test");
dfd.Test3 = new Dictionary<int, string> { { 1, "A" }, { 2, "B" } };
var row = df.Rows[2];
Assert.AreEqual(22.4, row["Test"]);
Assert.AreEqual(2, row["Test1"]);
Assert.AreEqual(22.4, row["Test2"]);
Assert.AreEqual("B", ((KeyValuePair<int, string>)row["Test3"]).Value);
}
}
public static void CanAddSeriesDynamically()
{
for (int i = 1; i <= 2; i++) // Run this twice, to check that instance references are right
{
var df =
new FrameBuilder.Columns <int, string> {
{ "Test", new SeriesBuilder <int> {
{ 1, 11.1 }, { 2, 22.4 }
}.Series }
}.Frame;
dynamic dfd = df;
dfd.Test1 = new[] { 1, 2 };
dfd.Test2 = df.GetColumn <double>("Test");
dfd.Test3 = new Dictionary <int, string> {
{ 1, "A" }, { 2, "B" }
};
var row = df.Rows[2];
Assert.AreEqual(22.4, row["Test"]);
Assert.AreEqual(2, row["Test1"]);
Assert.AreEqual(22.4, row["Test2"]);
Assert.AreEqual("B", ((KeyValuePair <int, string>)row["Test3"]).Value);
}
}
public static double[] Features_engineering_pred(Series <DateTime, double> input)
{
// Features engineering function for generating prediction input
int shiftn = 0;
var data = input.Shift(shiftn);
var data2 = data.Select(x => Math.Pow(x.Value, 2));
var MA3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var diffdataMA3 = (data / MA3).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffdataMA5 = (data / MA5).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffdataMA10 = (data / MA10).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffMA3MA5 = (MA3 / MA5).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffMA3MA10 = (MA3 / MA10).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffMA5MA10 = (MA5 / MA10).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var SD3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => x.Value.StdDev());
var SD5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => x.Value.StdDev());
var SD10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => x.Value.StdDev());
var RSI3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => RSI_func(x, 3));
var RSI5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => RSI_func(x, 5));
var RSI10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => RSI_func(x, 10));
var K3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => K_func(x, 3));
var K5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => K_func(x, 5));
var K10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => K_func(x, 10));
string Returncolumn = "Return" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Powercolumn = "Power" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA3column = "MA3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA5column = "MA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA10column = "MA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string SD3column = "SD3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string SD5column = "SD5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string SD10column = "SD10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string CompareDataColumn1 = "dataMA3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string CompareDataColumn2 = "dataMA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string CompareDataColumn3 = "dataMA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Compare1column = "MA3MA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Compare2column = "MA3MA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Compare3column = "MA5MA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string RSI3column = "RSI3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string RSI5column = "RSI5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string RSI10column = "RSI10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string K3column = "K3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string K5column = "K5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string K10column = "K10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
var Features = new FrameBuilder.Columns <DateTime, string> {
{ Returncolumn, data },
{ Powercolumn, data2 },
{ MA3column, MA3 },
{ MA5column, MA5 },
{ MA10column, MA10 },
{ Compare1column, diffMA3MA5 },
{ Compare2column, diffMA3MA10 },
{ Compare3column, diffMA5MA10 },
{ CompareDataColumn1, diffdataMA3 },
{ CompareDataColumn2, diffdataMA5 },
{ CompareDataColumn3, diffdataMA10 },
{ SD3column, SD3 },
{ SD5column, SD5 },
{ SD10column, SD10 },
{ RSI3column, RSI3 },
{ RSI5column, RSI5 },
{ RSI10column, RSI10 },
{ K3column, K3 },
{ K5column, K5 },
{ K10column, K10 }
}.Frame;
var row_length = Features.RowCount;
var col_length = Features.ColumnCount;
double[] delay_1 = Features.GetRowAt <double>(row_length - 1).Values.ToArray <double>();
double[] delay_2 = Features.GetRowAt <double>(row_length - 2).Values.ToArray <double>();
double[] delay_3 = Features.GetRowAt <double>(row_length - 3).Values.ToArray <double>();
double[] features_pred = new double[col_length * 3];
for (int i = 0; i < col_length; i++)
{
features_pred[i] = delay_1[i];
}
for (int i = 0; i < col_length; i++)
{
features_pred[i + col_length] = delay_2[i];
}
for (int i = 0; i < col_length; i++)
{
features_pred[i + col_length * 2] = delay_3[i];
}
return(features_pred);
}
public static Frame <DateTime, string> Features_engineering(Series <DateTime, double> input, int shiftn)
{
//Features Engineering function for training machine learning
var data = input.Shift(shiftn);
var data2 = data.Select(x => Math.Pow(x.Value, 2));
var MA3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var MA10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => x.Value.Mean());
var diffdataMA3 = (data / MA3).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffdataMA5 = (data / MA5).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffdataMA10 = (data / MA10).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffMA3MA5 = (MA3 / MA5).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffMA3MA10 = (MA3 / MA10).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var diffMA5MA10 = (MA5 / MA10).Select(x => x.Value - 1);
var SD3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => x.Value.StdDev());
var SD5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => x.Value.StdDev());
var SD10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => x.Value.StdDev());
var RSI3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => RSI_func(x, 3));
var RSI5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => RSI_func(x, 5));
var RSI10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => RSI_func(x, 10));
var K3 = data.Window(3).Select(x => K_func(x, 3));
var K5 = data.Window(5).Select(x => K_func(x, 5));
var K10 = data.Window(10).Select(x => K_func(x, 10));
string Returncolumn = "Return" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Powercolumn = "Power" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA3column = "MA3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA5column = "MA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string MA10column = "MA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string SD3column = "SD3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string SD5column = "SD5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string SD10column = "SD10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string CompareDataColumn1 = "dataMA3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string CompareDataColumn2 = "dataMA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string CompareDataColumn3 = "dataMA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Compare1column = "MA3MA5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Compare2column = "MA3MA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string Compare3column = "MA5MA10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string RSI3column = "RSI3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string RSI5column = "RSI5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string RSI10column = "RSI10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string K3column = "K3" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string K5column = "K5" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
string K10column = "K10" + Convert.ToString(shiftn);
var Features = new FrameBuilder.Columns <DateTime, string> {
{ Returncolumn, data },
{ Powercolumn, data2 },
{ MA3column, MA3 },
{ MA5column, MA5 },
{ MA10column, MA10 },
{ Compare1column, diffMA3MA5 },
{ Compare2column, diffMA3MA10 },
{ Compare3column, diffMA5MA10 },
{ CompareDataColumn1, diffdataMA3 },
{ CompareDataColumn2, diffdataMA5 },
{ CompareDataColumn3, diffdataMA10 },
{ SD3column, SD3 },
{ SD5column, SD5 },
{ SD10column, SD10 },
{ RSI3column, RSI3 },
{ RSI5column, RSI5 },
{ RSI10column, RSI10 },
{ K3column, K3 },
{ K5column, K5 },
{ K10column, K10 }
}.Frame;
return(Features);
}
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
public Frame<DateTime, string> computeFuturesSpreads()
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
{
Log_.InfoFormat("Computing spreads...");
CombinedStatic = SpreadSeriesBuilder.combineFuturesAndBondStatic(BondStatic,FuturesStatic);
var columns = FuturesPrices.Columns;
FrameBuilder.Columns<DateTime, string> frameblder = new FrameBuilder.Columns<DateTime, string>();
// Iterate over columns for prices
foreach (var col in FuturesPrices.ColumnKeys)
{
var series = columns[col].As<double>();
//series = series.Select(kvp => calcFuturesMeasure(SpreadMetric_, col, kvp.Value, kvp.Key));
var dte_idx = series.Keys.ToList();
SeriesBuilder<DateTime,double> sb = new SeriesBuilder<DateTime, double>();
Tuple<DateTime, double> prev = null;
/* THIS ABSOLUTELY HAS TO BE IN ASCENDING ORDER */
dte_idx.Sort();
foreach(var dte in dte_idx)
{
var res = series.TryGet(dte);
if (res.HasValue)
{
double price = res.Value;
var staticRow = CombinedStatic.Rows.TryGet(col).ValueOrDefault;
/* This section is to account for deficiencies in our database. */
// Quit if we don't have static
if (staticRow == null)
{
sb.Add(dte, double.NaN);
continue;
}
// Quit if we have a bad price
if (price == 0.0)
{
sb.Add(dte, double.NaN);
continue;
}
// Quit if contract isn't even trading
var firstTradeDate = staticRow.GetAs<DateTime>("fut_first_trade_dt");
var lastTradeDate = staticRow.GetAs<DateTime>("last_tradeable_dt");
if (dte > lastTradeDate || dte < firstTradeDate)
{
sb.Add(dte, double.NaN);
continue;
}
// Get price for AUD
if (Conv_.Country == BondAnalytics.Country.AU)
{
DateTime maturity = TimeSeriesUtilities.LazySafeTryGetAs(staticRow, "Maturity", DateTime.MinValue);
int tenor = (int)Math.Round((maturity - dte).Days / 365.25);
price = BondAnalytics.CalcAUDFuturesContractValue(price, tenor);
}
// ASSUMPTION: Our DB seems to front fill by default. Skip days where no data is present
/*if (prev != null && price == prev.Item2)
{
sb.Add(dte, double.NaN);
continue;
} */
double metric = calcFuturesMeasure(SpreadMetric_, col, price, dte, previous: prev);
prev = new Tuple<DateTime, double>(dte, price);
sb.Add(dte, metric);
}
else
{
sb.Add(dte, double.NaN);
}
}
frameblder.Add(col, sb.Series);
}
var output = frameblder.Frame;
Log_.InfoFormat("Complete:");
//output.Print();
return output.SortRowsByKey();
}
public static void FramesOrderedAfterBuild()
{
var builder = new FrameBuilder.Columns<int, string>();
builder.Add("column1", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column2", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column3", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
builder.Add("column4", new[] { 1, 2, 3, 4 }.ToOrdinalSeries());
var frame = builder.Frame;
Assert.AreEqual(
new[] { "column1", "column2", "column3", "column4" },
frame.ColumnKeys.ToArray()
);
}
public static void BackTest(string Date, string Weeks)
{
///////////////////////////
///
/// Setting backtest object
///
//////////////////////////
Backtest Mybacktest = new Backtest();
Backtest Mybacktest_adj = new Backtest();
// Initial the two backtest
Mybacktest.Init();
Mybacktest_adj.Init();
///////////////////////////
///
/// Setting data container to store the information
/// outside the for loop
///
///////////////////////////
// setting netvalue lists for both standard strategy and dynamic strategy
List <double> Hisc_netValue = new List <double>();
List <double> Adj_netValue = new List <double>();
// setting lists to store Fixed Income ETFs and Equity ETFs
// we are holding during this trading week for the caculation of
// Turnover Utility function
List <string> ETFs_holding_FI = new List <string>();
List <string> ETFs_holding_Equ = new List <string>();
// setting matrix to store the trading history during this backtest
string[][] trading_history_ETF = new string[Convert.ToInt64(Weeks)][];
double[][] trading_history_allocation = new double[Convert.ToInt64(Weeks)][];
double[][] ADJtrading_history_allocation = new double[Convert.ToInt64(Weeks)][];
// setting two variable drawdown and position ratio for the caculation
// in Dynamic strategy, position ratio means the percentage of Fixed Income
// ETFs we are currently holding
double DrawDown = 0;
double Position_ratio = 0.2;
int FI_holding_weeks = 0;
int Equ_holding_weeks = 0;
double[] FI_holding_allocation = new double[5];
double[] Equ_holding_allocation = new double[5];
//////////////////////////////////
///
/// For loop backtest
///
/////////////////////////////////
for (int i = 0; i < Convert.ToInt64(Weeks); i++)
{
// seting Datapreprocessing class for both Fixed Income ETFs and Equity ETFs
DataPreProcessing pro_FI = new DataPreProcessing();
DataPreProcessing pro_Equ = new DataPreProcessing();
// caculate the date of today start from the 'Date'
// which is given by backtest function
var Today = DateTime.Parse(Date).AddDays(i * 7);
// print the date we trained the model and trade
Console.WriteLine("Date: {0}", Today.ToString());
// cleaning data use data preprocessing class
pro_FI.Run(Today.ToString(), 112, "Fixed Income");
pro_Equ.Run(Today.ToString(), 112, "Equity");
// Set prediction vector
double[] predictions_FI = new double[pro_FI.Trade_ETF.Count];
double[] predictions_Equ = new double[pro_Equ.Trade_ETF.Count];
// Set blend ETFs list to store the Top 10 etfs which is going to be
// longed by the algorithm
List <string> Blend_ETFs = new List <string>();
/////////////////////////////
/// ///////
/// FI ETF prediction ///////
/// ///////
/////////////////////////////
for (int j = 0; j < pro_FI.Trade_ETF.Count; j++)
{
// Grab the data from the datapreprocessing object class
var y = pro_FI.Target_List[j];
var fy = new FrameBuilder.Columns <DateTime, string> {
{ "Y", y }
}.Frame;
var data = pro_FI.Feature_List[j].Join(fy);
var pred_Features = pro_FI.pred_Feature_List[j];
data.SaveCsv("dataset.csv");
// Training machine learning and predict
var prediction = Learning.FitGBT(pred_Features);
predictions_FI[j] = prediction;
}
// Get the minimum scores of top 5 ETF
var hold_FI = PredRanking(predictions_FI, 5);
// Get the namelist of top 5 ETF
List <string> ETFs_FI = new List <string>();
for (int m = 0; m < pro_FI.Trade_ETF.Count; m++)
{
if (predictions_FI[m] >= hold_FI)
{
ETFs_FI.Add(pro_FI.Trade_ETF[m]);
}
}
// Caculate the bid-ask spread cost if trade all 5 ETFs given by algorithm
double[] FixedIncomeSpread = new double[5];
FixedIncomeSpread = GetBidAskSpread(ETFs_FI.ToArray());
// Cacualte the Unitility and decide if we should trade this week
if (i == 0)
{
ETFs_holding_FI = ETFs_FI;
}
else
{
// get all prediction results of both holding etf and etfs which we may be going to trade
double[] holding_pred = ETFname2Prediction(ETFs_holding_FI, predictions_FI, pro_FI);
double[] long_pred = ETFname2Prediction(ETFs_FI, predictions_FI, pro_FI);
// caculate the trade diff which is the utility of trading this week
double trade_diff = long_pred.Sum() -
holding_pred.Sum() -
CaculateRebalanceCost(ETFs_FI,
ETFs_holding_FI,
FI_holding_allocation,
pro_FI);
// check if it is worth of trading
if (trade_diff < 0)
{
// It is not worth of trading and ETFs portfolio will be same
FI_holding_weeks += 1;
ETFs_FI = ETFs_holding_FI;
// setting spread equals to 0 because we are not going to trade this week
FixedIncomeSpread = new double[] { 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 };
}
else
{
FI_holding_weeks = 0;
// It is worth of changing positions and trading this week !
// recaculate the spread costs because we may not going to trade all
// ETFs which we are holding right now.
for (int m = 0; m < 5; m++)
{
for (int n = 0; n < 5; n++)
{
if (ETFs_FI[m] == ETFs_holding_FI[n])
{
FixedIncomeSpread[m] = 0;
}
else
{
continue;
}
}
}
// resetting the fixed income ETFs we are holding
ETFs_holding_FI = ETFs_FI;
}
}
Console.WriteLine("Long the following ETFs: ");
// Store the Fixed Income ETFs namelist to blend ETFs list
for (int n = 0; n < ETFs_FI.Count; n++)
{
Console.WriteLine(ETFs_FI[n]);
Blend_ETFs.Add(ETFs_FI[n]);
}
///////////////////////////////////
/// ///////
/// Equity ETF prediction ///////
/// ///////
///////////////////////////////////
for (int j = 0; j < pro_Equ.Trade_ETF.Count; j++)
{
// Run machine learning and predict next week for all ETFss
var y = pro_Equ.Target_List[j];
var fy = new FrameBuilder.Columns <DateTime, string> {
{ "Y", y }
}.Frame;
var data = pro_Equ.Feature_List[j].Join(fy);
var pred_Features = pro_Equ.pred_Feature_List[j];
data.SaveCsv("dataset.csv");
var prediction = Learning.FitGBT(pred_Features);
predictions_Equ[j] = prediction;
}
List <string> ETFs_Equ = new List <string>();
// Find the min score of top 5 best ETFs
var hold_Equ = PredRanking(predictions_Equ, 5);
for (int m = 0; m < pro_Equ.Trade_ETF.Count; m++)
{
if (predictions_Equ[m] >= hold_Equ)
{
ETFs_Equ.Add(pro_Equ.Trade_ETF[m]);
}
}
// caculate the bidAsk Spread
double[] EquityBASpread = new double[5];
EquityBASpread = GetBidAskSpread(ETFs_Equ.ToArray());
if (i == 0)
{
ETFs_holding_Equ = ETFs_Equ;
}
else
{
double[] holding_pred = ETFname2Prediction(ETFs_holding_Equ, predictions_Equ, pro_Equ);
double[] long_pred = ETFname2Prediction(ETFs_Equ, predictions_Equ, pro_Equ);
// Caculate the Utility
double trade_diff = long_pred.Sum() -
holding_pred.Sum() -
CaculateRebalanceCost(ETFs_Equ,
ETFs_holding_Equ,
Equ_holding_allocation,
pro_Equ);
// check if it is worth of trading this week
if (trade_diff < 0)
{
Equ_holding_weeks += 1;
ETFs_Equ = ETFs_holding_Equ;
EquityBASpread = new double[] { 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 };
}
else
{
// Recacluate the spread costs
Equ_holding_weeks = 0;
for (int m = 0; m < 5; m++)
{
for (int n = 0; n < 5; n++)
{
if (ETFs_Equ[m] == ETFs_holding_Equ[n])
{
EquityBASpread[m] = 0;
}
else
{
continue;
}
}
}
ETFs_holding_Equ = ETFs_Equ;
}
}
// Store the Equity ETFs we are going to long in Blend ETFs list
for (int n = 0; n < ETFs_Equ.Count; n++)
{
Console.WriteLine(ETFs_Equ[n]);
Blend_ETFs.Add(ETFs_Equ[n]);
}
// Caculate optimized allocations for both Fixed income and Equity ETFs
//////////////////////////////
Console.WriteLine("Holding weeks for current Fixed Income ETFs is {0}", FI_holding_weeks);
Console.WriteLine("Holding weeks for current Equity ETFs is {0}", Equ_holding_weeks);
double[] AllocationFI = new double[5];
if (FI_holding_weeks == 0)
{
AllocationFI = PO.ETF2AllocationOwnOptim(ETFs_FI, pro_FI);
FI_holding_allocation = AllocationFI;
}
else if (FI_holding_weeks < 15)
{
AllocationFI = FI_holding_allocation;
}
else
{
FI_holding_weeks = 0;
AllocationFI = PO.ETF2AllocationOwnOptim(ETFs_FI, pro_FI);
FI_holding_allocation = AllocationFI;
}
//////////////////////////////
double[] AllocationEqu = new double[5];
if (Equ_holding_weeks == 0)
{
AllocationEqu = PO.ETF2AllocationOwnOptim(ETFs_Equ, pro_Equ);
Equ_holding_allocation = AllocationEqu;
}
else if (Equ_holding_weeks < 15)
{
AllocationEqu = Equ_holding_allocation;
}
else
{
Equ_holding_weeks = 0;
AllocationEqu = PO.ETF2AllocationOwnOptim(ETFs_Equ, pro_Equ);
Equ_holding_allocation = AllocationEqu;
}
//////////////////////////////
// Setting allocations which is an array to store allocations for strandard strategy
double[] allocations = new double[10];
for (int fi = 0; fi < 5; fi++)
{
allocations[fi] = AllocationFI[fi] * 0.2;
}
for (int equ = 0; equ < 5; equ++)
{
allocations[equ + 5] = AllocationEqu[equ] * 0.8;
}
// Setting ALLOCATION which is an array to store allocations for strandard strategy
double[] ALLOCATION = new double[10];
for (int fi = 0; fi < 5; fi++)
{
ALLOCATION[fi] = AllocationFI[fi] * Position_ratio;
}
for (int equ = 0; equ < 5; equ++)
{
ALLOCATION[equ + 5] = AllocationEqu[equ] * (1 - Position_ratio);
}
// Transform ETFs list to an array
string[] ETFs = new string[10];
for (int etf = 0; etf < 10; etf++)
{
ETFs[etf] = Blend_ETFs[etf];
}
// Storing the ETFs trading history and allocations
trading_history_ETF[i] = new string[10];
trading_history_ETF[i] = ETFs;
trading_history_allocation[i] = new double[10];
trading_history_allocation[i] = allocations;
ADJtrading_history_allocation[i] = new double[10];
ADJtrading_history_allocation[i] = ALLOCATION;
// Get the spread array for all ETFs
double[] spread = new double[10];
Array.Copy(FixedIncomeSpread, spread, FixedIncomeSpread.Length);
Array.Copy(EquityBASpread, 0, spread, FixedIncomeSpread.Length, EquityBASpread.Length);
// Caculate the weighted spread for the adjustment in netvalue
double weighted_spread = 0;
for (int spreadItem = 0; spreadItem < 10; spreadItem++)
{
weighted_spread += allocations[spreadItem] * spread[spreadItem];
}
// clearing the NetValue
Hisc_netValue.Add(Mybacktest.Rebalance(Today, ETFs, allocations) * (1 - weighted_spread));
Adj_netValue.Add(Mybacktest_adj.Rebalance(Today, ETFs, ALLOCATION) * (1 - weighted_spread));
// Caculate the current drawdown and adjust the position ratio which is
// the percentage for the fixed income ETFs
if (i == 0)
{
DrawDown = 0;
}
else
{
DrawDown = 1 - Hisc_netValue.Last() / Hisc_netValue.Max();
}
// Adjust the position ratio
if (DrawDown > 0.1)
{
Position_ratio = 0.8;
}
else if (DrawDown > 0.08)
{
Position_ratio = 0.6;
}
else if (DrawDown > 0.05)
{
Position_ratio = 0.4;
}
else
{
Position_ratio = 0.2;
}
// Print out the current drawdown and position ratio.
Console.WriteLine("Current drawdown is: {0}", DrawDown);
Console.WriteLine("Fixed Income has been adjusted to: {0} %", Position_ratio * 100);
}
// Result analysis for NetValue
/////////////////////
///
/// Backtest Metrics of Strandard Strategy
///
////////////////////
var StrategyNetValue = Hisc_netValue.ToArray();
double MaxDD = 0;
for (int i = 1; i < StrategyNetValue.Length; i++)
{
var MaxNetValue = StrategyNetValue.Take(i).Max();
double drawdown = 1 - StrategyNetValue[i] / MaxNetValue;
if (drawdown > MaxDD)
{
MaxDD = drawdown;
}
}
Console.WriteLine("Maximum drawdown of This Strategy is: {0}", MaxDD);
var AnnualReturn = Math.Log(StrategyNetValue.Last()) /
(Convert.ToDouble(Weeks) / 50);
Console.WriteLine("Annual Return of This Strategy is: {0}", AnnualReturn);
var StrategyReturn = NetValue2Return(StrategyNetValue);
Console.WriteLine("Standard Deviation of This Strategy is: {0}",
Statistics.StandardDeviation(StrategyReturn));
double[] BTmetrics = new double[3];
BTmetrics[0] = AnnualReturn;
BTmetrics[1] = MaxDD;
BTmetrics[2] = Statistics.StandardDeviation(StrategyReturn) * Math.Sqrt(50);
// Result analysis for AdjNetValue
/////////////////////
///
/// Backtest Metrics of Dynamic Strategy
///
/////////////////////
var ADJStrategyNetValue = Adj_netValue.ToArray();
double ADJMaxDD = 0;
for (int i = 1; i < ADJStrategyNetValue.Length; i++)
{
var MaxNetValue = ADJStrategyNetValue.Take(i).Max();
double drawdown = 1 - ADJStrategyNetValue[i] / MaxNetValue;
if (drawdown > ADJMaxDD)
{
ADJMaxDD = drawdown;
}
}
Console.WriteLine("Maximum drawdown of ADJ Strategy is: {0}", ADJMaxDD);
var ADJAnnualReturn = Math.Log(ADJStrategyNetValue.Last()) /
(Convert.ToDouble(Weeks) / 50);
Console.WriteLine("Annual Return of ADJ Strategy is: {0}", ADJAnnualReturn);
var ADJStrategyReturn = NetValue2Return(ADJStrategyNetValue);
Console.WriteLine("Standard Deviation of This Strategy is: {0}",
Statistics.StandardDeviation(ADJStrategyReturn));
double[] ADJBTmetrics = new double[3];
ADJBTmetrics[0] = ADJAnnualReturn;
ADJBTmetrics[1] = ADJMaxDD;
ADJBTmetrics[2] = Statistics.StandardDeviation(ADJStrategyReturn) * Math.Sqrt(50);
// Output all results to CSV
// Without position adjustment
SaveArrayAsCSV_(trading_history_allocation, "StrandardTradingHistoryAllocation.csv");
SaveArrayAsCSV(BTmetrics, "StandardBacktestMetrics.csv");
SaveArrayAsCSV(StrategyNetValue, "StandardNet_value.csv");
// With position adjustmnet
SaveArrayAsCSV_(ADJtrading_history_allocation, "DynamicTradingHistoryAllocation.csv");
SaveArrayAsCSV(ADJBTmetrics, "DynamicBacktestMetrics.csv");
SaveArrayAsCSV(ADJStrategyNetValue, "DynamicNetValue.csv");
SaveArrayAsCSV_ <string>(trading_history_ETF, "ETFTradingHistoryforALL.csv");
Console.ReadKey();
}
