public NFLBet IsBettable( NFLGame game )
{
NFLBet bet = null;
this.game = game;
if ( Int32.Parse( game.Week ) > 2 )
{
if ( ! game.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
RosterLib.Utility.Announce( " Non-Divisional Game");
if ( BetAgainst( game.HomeNflTeam.TeamCode ) )
bet = new NFLBet( game.HomeNflTeam.TeamCode, game, Name + " - " + game.Spread, ConfidenceLevel() );
if ( BetAgainst( game.AwayNflTeam.TeamCode ) )
bet = new NFLBet( game.AwayNflTeam.TeamCode, game, Name + " - " + game.Spread, ConfidenceLevel() );
}
else
{
RosterLib.Utility.Announce( " Divisional Game");
}
}
return bet;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment I (Weeks 1-4)
/// Pointer Eleven: (p 70)
/// Sandwich Game
/// I look to wager against a team ina divisional series "sandwich game".
/// A sandwich game is a non-divisional game that takes placewhen a team has just played
/// at least two straight divisional games and has at least 2 more straight divisional
/// games coming up after the non divisional contest.
/// </summary>
public static bool TeamSandwiched( NflTeam t, NFLGame nextGame )
{
bool sandwichGame = false;
if ( ! nextGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
NFLGame lastGame = t.PreviousGame( nextGame.GameDate );
if ( lastGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
NFLGame lastLastGame = t.PreviousGame( lastGame.GameDate );
if ( lastLastGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
// now what about the next game?
NFLGame nextNextGame = t.NextGame( nextGame.GameDate );
if (nextNextGame != null)
{
if (nextNextGame.IsDivisionalGame())
{
// finally another one
NFLGame nextNextNextgame = t.NextGame(nextNextGame.GameDate);
if (nextNextNextgame.IsDivisionalGame())
sandwichGame = true;
}
}
}
}
}
return sandwichGame;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II (Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer: Six (p 73)
/// Out-of-Division Favourites.
/// As in games one through four, if a team has played 2 or more consecutive divisional games
/// and is now playing a nondivisional game, I look to wager against the team if they are
/// favoured by 7 or more.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool OutOfDivisionFavourites( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
var isOutOfDivisionFavourite = false;
if ( ! upcomingGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
if ( upcomingGame.IsFavourite( team ) )
{
if ( Math.Abs( upcomingGame.Spread ) >= 7 )
{
var lastGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( lastGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
var previousToLastGame = team.PreviousGame( lastGame.GameDate );
if (previousToLastGame.IsDivisionalGame())
isOutOfDivisionFavourite = true;
}
}
}
}
return isOutOfDivisionFavourite;
}
/// <summary>
/// Segment II ( Weeks 5-8)
/// Pointer Eight: (p73)
/// Monday Night Followup.
/// As in the first four games, I look to bet
/// against a team that has won and covered a Monday night game against a
/// divisional opponent, and who is now playing a non divisional team.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="team"></param>
/// <param name="upcomingGame"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public static bool MondayNightFollowUp( NflTeam team, NFLGame upcomingGame )
{
var isMnfFollowup = false;
if ( ! upcomingGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
{
var previousGame = team.PreviousGame( upcomingGame.GameDate );
if ( previousGame.IsMondayNight() )
{
if ( previousGame.IsDivisionalGame() )
if ( previousGame.WonVsSpread( team ) )
isMnfFollowup = true;
}
}
return isMnfFollowup;
}
private GameMetrics CalculateGameMetrics( bool isHome, NFLGame game, DateTime focusDate )
{
string teamRatings;
string oppRatings;
var gm = new GameMetrics();
if ( isHome )
{
oppRatings = RatingsService.GetUnitRatingsFor( game.AwayNflTeam, focusDate );
teamRatings = RatingsService.GetUnitRatingsFor( game.HomeNflTeam, focusDate );
game.AwayNflTeam.Ratings = oppRatings;
game.HomeNflTeam.Ratings = teamRatings;
}
else
{
teamRatings = RatingsService.GetUnitRatingsFor( game.AwayNflTeam, focusDate );
oppRatings = RatingsService.GetUnitRatingsFor( game.HomeNflTeam, focusDate );
game.HomeNflTeam.Ratings = oppRatings;
game.AwayNflTeam.Ratings = teamRatings;
}
var score = 0;
if ( string.IsNullOrEmpty( teamRatings ) || string.IsNullOrEmpty( oppRatings ))
Utility.Announce( "Ratings not found - skipping score calculation" );
else
{
var fg = isHome ? 2 : 1;
if (game.IsDomeGame())
fg++;
else
{
if (game.IsBadWeather())
fg--;
}
// Part 1 - Calculate Tdp
var po = teamRatings.Substring( 0, 1 );
var pd = oppRatings.Substring( 5, 1 );
var tdp = TouchdownPasses( po, pd );
var ydp = YardsPassing( po, pd );
gm.TDp = tdp;
gm.YDp = ydp;
// Part 2 - Adjust for protection
var pp = teamRatings.Substring( 2, 1 );
var pr = oppRatings.Substring( 3, 1 );
var ppr = ProtectionAdjustment( pp, pr );
tdp += ppr;
if ( tdp < 0 ) tdp = 0;
// Part 3 - Calculate Tdr
var ro = teamRatings.Substring( 1, 1 );
var rd = oppRatings.Substring( 4, 1 );
var tdr = TouchdownRuns( ro, rd );
var ydr = YardsRushing( ro, rd );
gm.TDp = tdp;
gm.TDr = tdr;
gm.YDr = ydr;
var tdd = DefensiveScores(game.IsDivisionalGame(), isHome);
var tds = SpecialTeamScores(game.IsMondayNight(), isHome);
gm.TDd = tdd;
gm.TDs = tds;
gm.FG = fg;
//TODO: Short week adjustment
//TODO: Opponent had Route last game adjustment
//TODO: Revenge adjustment
// Total up all the parts of a score
score = ( tdp + tdr + tdd + tds )*7 + (fg * 3);
DumpCalculations( isHome, game, tdr, pr, pp, ro, tds, tdd, rd, oppRatings,
teamRatings, ppr, tdp, score, pd, po, fg);
if ( isHome )
{
_homeTDp = tdp;
_homeTDr = tdr;
_homeFg = fg;
_homeTDd = tdd;
_homeTDs = tds;
_homeYDr = ydr;
_homeYDp = ydp;
}
else
{
_awayTDp = tdp;
_awayTDr = tdr;
_awayFg = fg;
_awayTDd = tdd;
_awayTDs = tds;
_awayYDr = ydr;
_awayYDp = ydp;
}
}
gm.Score = score;
return gm;
}
private bool IsGameDivisional( string teamCodeIn, string seasonIn, string weekIn )
{
var dr = tflWS.GetGame( seasonIn, weekIn, teamCodeIn );
var g = new NFLGame( dr );
return g.IsDivisionalGame();
}