Пример #1
0
 public HMASignal(HullMovingAverage fast,
                  HullMovingAverage medium,
                  HullMovingAverage slow,
                  InstantTrend trend,
                  SecurityHolding securityHolding)
 {
     _fast            = fast;
     _medium          = medium;
     _slow            = slow;
     _trend           = trend;
     _securityHolding = securityHolding;
 }
        /// <summary>
        /// Initialise the data and resolution required, as well as the cash and start-end dates for your algorithm. All algorithms must initialized.
        /// </summary>
        public override void Initialize()
        {
            // initialize algorithm level parameters
            SetStartDate(2015, 01, 01);
            SetEndDate(2015, 06, 01);
            SetCash(100000);

            // leverage tradier $1 traders
            SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.TradierBrokerage);

            // request high resolution equity data
            AddSecurity(SecurityType.Equity, Symbol, Resolution.Second);

            // save off our security so we can reference it quickly later
            Security = Securities[Symbol];

            // Set our max leverage
            Security.SetLeverage(MaximumLeverage);

            // define a hull for trend detection
            HMA = new HullMovingAverage(Symbol + "_HMA14", 4);
            var hmaDaily = new TradeBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(30));

            RegisterIndicator(Symbol, HMA, hmaDaily, Field.Close);

            // define our longer term indicators
            STD14   = STD(Symbol, 14, Resolution.Daily);
            ATR14   = ATR(Symbol, 14, resolution: Resolution.Daily);
            PSARMin = new ParabolicStopAndReverse(Symbol, afStart: 0, afIncrement: 0.000025m);

            // smooth our ATR over a week, we'll use this to determine if recent volatilty warrants entrance
            var oneWeekInMarketHours = (int)(5 * 6.5);

            SmoothedATR14 = new ExponentialMovingAverage("Smoothed_" + ATR14.Name, oneWeekInMarketHours).Of(ATR14);
            // smooth our STD over a week as well
            SmoothedSTD14 = new ExponentialMovingAverage("Smoothed_" + STD14.Name, oneWeekInMarketHours).Of(STD14);

            // initialize our charts
            var chart = new Chart(Symbol);

            chart.AddSeries(new Series(HMA.Name));
            chart.AddSeries(new Series("Enter", SeriesType.Scatter));
            chart.AddSeries(new Series("Exit", SeriesType.Scatter));
            chart.AddSeries(new Series(PSARMin.Name, SeriesType.Scatter));
            AddChart(chart);

            var history = History(Symbol, 20, Resolution.Daily);

            foreach (var bar in history)
            {
                hmaDaily.Update(bar);
                ATR14.Update(bar);
                STD14.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close);
            }

            // schedule an event to run every day at five minutes after our Symbol's market open
            Schedule.Event("MarketOpenSpan")
            .EveryDay(Symbol)
            .AfterMarketOpen(Symbol, minutesAfterOpen: OpeningSpanInMinutes)
            .Run(MarketOpeningSpanHandler);

            Schedule.Event("MarketOpen")
            .EveryDay(Symbol)
            .AfterMarketOpen(Symbol, minutesAfterOpen: -1)
            .Run(() => PSARMin.Reset());
        }
Пример #3
0
        // TODO: check volatilitymodel https://github.com/QuantConnect/Lean/blob/master/Common/Securities/RelativeStandardDeviationVolatilityModel.cs
        public override void Initialize()
        {
            SetStartDate(2016, 1, 1);
            SetEndDate(2016, 4, 1);
            SetCash(3000);

            SetBrokerageMessageHandler(new CustomBrokerageMessageHandler(this));

            var allInputs  = new List <double[]>();
            var allOutputs = new List <int>();
            var allWeights = new List <double>();

            foreach (var symbol in Symbols)
            {
                AddForex(symbol, _dataResolution, Market.Oanda, false, 1m);

                Securities[symbol].TransactionModel = new OandaTransactionModel();
                //Securities[symbol].SlippageModel = new ConstantSlippageModel(0m);
                SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.OandaBrokerage);

                /************ TRAINING ************/
                var trainingResolution = Resolution.Minute;

                /*var slowT = HMA(symbol, 28, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
                 * var slowSlopeT = new InstantTrend(symbol, 5).Of(slowT);
                 * var returnT = LOGR(symbol, 3, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
                 * var returnSlopeT = LSMA(symbol, 5, trainingResolution).Of(returnT);*/

                var consolidatorT = new QuoteBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15));
                var stochT        = new Stochastic(symbol, 14, 3, 3);
                var stochTMA      = new HullMovingAverage(symbol, 3).Of(stochT);
                var emaT          = new ExponentialMovingAverage(symbol, 40);
                RegisterIndicator(symbol, stochT, consolidatorT);
                RegisterIndicator(symbol, emaT, consolidatorT);
                SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, consolidatorT);

                var historyT = History <QuoteBar>(symbol, TimeSpan.FromDays(500), trainingResolution);

                var quoteBars     = new List <QuoteBar>();
                var stochs        = new List <double>();
                var rollingStochs = new RollingWindow <double>(1000);
                var stochsMA      = new List <double>();
                var emas          = new List <double>();
                var stochCount    = new List <double>();
                var stochAverage  = new List <double>();

                //consolidatorT.DataConsolidated += (sender, args) => quoteBars.Add(args);
                stochTMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
                {
                    if (!stochTMA.IsReady || !emaT.IsReady)
                    {
                        return;
                    }

                    quoteBars.Add((QuoteBar)consolidatorT.Consolidated);
                    stochs.Add((double)stochT.Current.Value);
                    rollingStochs.Add((double)args.Value);
                    stochsMA.Add((double)args.Value);
                    emas.Add((double)emaT.Current.Value);

                    var filtered = rollingStochs.TakeWhile((s) => args.Value > 50 ? s > 50 : args.Value < 50 ? s < 50 : false);
                    stochCount.Add(filtered.Count());

                    try
                    {
                        stochAverage.Add(filtered.Average());
                    }
                    catch (Exception ex)
                    {
                        stochAverage.Add(0);
                    }
                };

                foreach (var bar in historyT)
                {
                    consolidatorT.Update(bar);
                }

                Console.WriteLine("{0} {1} {2} {3} {4}", quoteBars.Count, stochs.Count, stochCount.Count, stochAverage.Count, emas.Count);

                var inputs  = new List <double[]>();
                var outputs = new List <int>();
                var weights = new List <double>();

                for (var i = 1; i < quoteBars.Count; i++)
                {
                    var longTarget  = quoteBars[i].Close + (30m / 10000m);
                    var longStop    = quoteBars[i].Close - (10m / 10000m);
                    var shortTarget = quoteBars[i].Close - (30m / 10000m);
                    var shortStop   = quoteBars[i].Close + (10m / 10000m);

                    var longSetup  = stochs[i] >= 35 && stochsMA[i] > stochsMA[i - 1] && (double)quoteBars[i].Close > emas[i];
                    var shortSetup = stochs[i] <= 65 && stochs[i] > 0 && stochsMA[i] < stochsMA[i - 1] && (double)quoteBars[i].Close < emas[i];

                    if (!longSetup && !shortSetup)
                    {
                        continue;
                    }

                    for (var j = i + 1; j < quoteBars.Count; j++)
                    {
                        var current = quoteBars[j];
                        if (current.High >= longTarget && current.Low > longStop && longSetup)
                        {
                            inputs.Add(new double[] { stochAverage[i], stochCount[i], (double)quoteBars[i].Close / emas[i] });
                            outputs.Add(1);

                            var profit = current.High - quoteBars[i].Close;

                            /*for (var k = j + 1; k < quoteBars.Count; k++)
                             * {
                             *
                             * }*/
                            weights.Add((double)(1m - (50m / 10000m) / profit));

                            //i = j;
                            break;
                        }
                        else if (current.Low <= shortTarget && current.High < shortStop && shortSetup)
                        {
                            inputs.Add(new double[] { stochAverage[i], stochCount[i], (double)quoteBars[i].Close / emas[i] });
                            outputs.Add(0);

                            var profit = quoteBars[i].Close - current.Low;

                            /*for (var k = j + 1; k < quoteBars.Count; k++)
                             * {
                             *
                             * }*/
                            weights.Add((double)(1m - (50m / 10000m) / profit));
                            //i = j;
                            break;
                        }
                        else if ((current.Low <= longStop && longSetup) || (current.High >= shortStop && shortSetup))
                        {
                            //inputs.Add(new double[] { stochAverage[i] / stochs[i], stochCount[i], stochAverage[i] });
                            //outputs.Add(2);
                            //i = j;
                            break;
                        }

                        /*else if (j - i > 4 * 8)
                         * {
                         *  inputs.Add(new double[] { stochs[i], stochCount[i], stochAverage[i] });
                         *  outputs.Add(0);
                         *  //i = j;
                         *  break;
                         * }*/
                    }
                }

                allInputs.AddRange(inputs);
                allOutputs.AddRange(outputs);
                allWeights.AddRange(weights);

                for (var i = 0; i < inputs.Count; i++)
                {
                    //Console.WriteLine("Input: " + inputs[i][0] + " " + inputs[i][1] + " " + inputs[i][2] + " Output: " + outputs[i]);
                }

                var none = outputs.Where((o) => o == 2).Count();
                var sell = outputs.Where((o) => o == 0).Count();
                var buy  = outputs.Where((o) => o == 1).Count();

                Console.WriteLine("Total: {0} None: {1} Short: {2} Long: {3}", outputs.Count, none, sell, buy);

                /************ HMA ************/

                /*var slow = HMA(symbol, 28, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
                 * var slowSlope = new InstantTrend(symbol, 5).Of(slow);
                 * var logReturns = LOGR(symbol, 3, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
                 * var returnSlope = LSMA(symbol, 5, trainingResolution).Of(logReturns);*/

                var consolidator = new QuoteBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15));
                var stoch        = new Stochastic(symbol, 14, 3, 3);
                var stochMA      = new HullMovingAverage(symbol, 2).Of(stoch);
                var ema          = new ExponentialMovingAverage(symbol, 40);
                var rolling      = new RollingWindow <double>(1000);
                RegisterIndicator(symbol, stoch, consolidator);
                RegisterIndicator(symbol, ema, consolidator);
                SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, consolidator);

                _stoch[symbol] = stoch;
                _ema[symbol]   = ema;

                stochMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
                {
                    rolling.Add((double)args.Value);

                    if (Securities[symbol].Price > 0)
                    {
                        //Plot("Plotter", "Price", Securities["EURUSD"].Price);
                        Plot("Indicator", "STO", rolling[0]);
                    }
                };

                var std = ATR(symbol, 100, MovingAverageType.DoubleExponential, _dataResolution);

                var history = History <QuoteBar>(symbol, TimeSpan.FromDays(20), trainingResolution);

                foreach (var bar in history)
                {
                    //slow.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close);
                    //logReturns.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close);
                    std.Update(bar);
                    consolidator.Update(bar);
                }

                var signal = new SVMSignal(consolidator, stoch, stochMA, rolling, ema, Portfolio[symbol], this);
                signal.TrainSVM(inputs, outputs, weights);
                //signal.TrainNN(inputs, outputs, weights);

                Securities[symbol].VolatilityModel = new AverageTrueRangeVolatilityModel(std);
                _tradingAssets.Add(symbol,
                                   new TradingAsset(Securities[symbol],
                                                    new OneShotTrigger(signal),
                                                    new ProfitTargetSignalExit(null, _targetProfitLoss),
                                                    _maximumTradeRisk,
                                                    _maximumTradeSize,
                                                    this
                                                    ));
            }

            foreach (var symbol in Symbols)
            {
                //_tradingAssets[symbol].Retrain(allInputs, allOutputs, allWeights);
            }

            //AddData<DailyFx>("DFX", Resolution.Second, TimeZones.Utc);

            Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday),
                        TimeRules.At(7, 0, TimeZones.London), () =>
            {
                var tradeableDay = TradingCalendar.GetTradingDay().BusinessDay;
                if (tradeableDay)
                {
                    foreach (var s in Symbols)
                    {
                        _tradingAssets[s].IsTradable = true;
                    }
                }
            });

            Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday),
                        TimeRules.At(18, 0, TimeZones.London), () =>
            {
                foreach (var s in Symbols)
                {
                    _tradingAssets[s].IsTradable = false;
                }
            });

            Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Friday),
                        TimeRules.BeforeMarketClose(Symbols.First(), 60), () =>
            {
                foreach (var s in Symbols)
                {
                    _tradingAssets[s].Liquidate();
                }
            });

            Chart plotter = new Chart("Plotter");

            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Price", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("EMA", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Buy", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Green, ScatterMarkerSymbol.Triangle));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Sell", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Red, ScatterMarkerSymbol.TriangleDown));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Stopped", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Yellow, ScatterMarkerSymbol.Diamond));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Prediction", SeriesType.Bar, 1));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Probability", SeriesType.Bar, 2));
            AddChart(plotter);

            Chart indicator = new Chart("Indicator");

            indicator.AddSeries(new Series("STO", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            AddChart(indicator);

            Chart prediction = new Chart("Prediction");

            prediction.AddSeries(new Series("Pred", SeriesType.Bar, 0));
            AddChart(prediction);

            Chart probability = new Chart("Probability");

            probability.AddSeries(new Series("Prob", SeriesType.Bar, 0));
            AddChart(probability);
        }
Пример #4
0
        // TODO: check volatilitymodel https://github.com/QuantConnect/Lean/blob/master/Common/Securities/RelativeStandardDeviationVolatilityModel.cs
        public override void Initialize()
        {
            SetStartDate(2016, 1, 1);
            SetEndDate(2017, 1, 1);
            SetCash(3000);

            SetBrokerageMessageHandler(new CustomBrokerageMessageHandler(this));

            foreach (var symbol in Symbols)
            {
                AddForex(symbol, _dataResolution, Market.Oanda, false, 1m);

                Securities[symbol].TransactionModel = new OandaTransactionModel();
                //Securities[symbol].SlippageModel = new ConstantSlippageModel(0m);
                SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.OandaBrokerage);

                var consolidator = new QuoteBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(20));
                var stoch        = new Stochastic(symbol, 10, 3, 3);
                var stochMA      = new ExponentialMovingAverage(symbol, 25).Of(stoch);
                var stochEmaLSMA = new LeastSquaresMovingAverage(symbol, 5).Of(stochMA);
                var ema          = new ExponentialMovingAverage(symbol, 40);
                var emaMA        = new LeastSquaresMovingAverage(symbol, 5).Of(ema);

                var rollingStochMA       = HistoryTracker.Track(stochMA);
                var rollingEmaSlope      = HistoryTracker.Track(emaMA.Slope);
                var rollingStochEmaSlope = HistoryTracker.Track(stochEmaLSMA.Slope);

                var shortTermMA = EMA(symbol, 30, Resolution.Minute, Field.Close);

                RegisterIndicator(symbol, stoch, consolidator);
                RegisterIndicator(symbol, ema, consolidator);
                SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, consolidator);

                _stoch[symbol] = stoch;
                _ema[symbol]   = ema;

                var consolidatorDaily = new QuoteBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromHours(1));
                var dailyMA           = new HullMovingAverage(symbol, 7);
                var dailyEmaLSMA      = new LeastSquaresMovingAverage(symbol, 3).Of(dailyMA);

                var rollingDailyEmaSlope = HistoryTracker.Track(dailyEmaLSMA.Slope);

                RegisterIndicator(symbol, dailyMA, consolidatorDaily);
                SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, consolidatorDaily);

                stochMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
                {
                    if (Securities[symbol].Price > 0)
                    {
                        Plot("Indicator", "STO", rollingStochMA[0]);
                    }
                };

                stochEmaLSMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
                {
                    if (Securities[symbol].Price > 0)
                    {
                        Plot("IndicatorTrend", "STO", stochEmaLSMA.Slope);
                    }
                };

                /*emaMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
                 * {
                 *  if (Securities[symbol].Price > 0)
                 *  {
                 *      Plot("Trend", "LSMA", emaMA.Slope);
                 *  }
                 * };*/

                dailyEmaLSMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
                {
                    if (Securities[symbol].Price > 0)
                    {
                        Plot("Trend", "LSMA", dailyEmaLSMA.Slope);
                        Plot("Trend", "EMA", dailyMA);
                    }
                };

                var std = ATR(symbol, 100, MovingAverageType.DoubleExponential, _dataResolution);

                var history = History <QuoteBar>(symbol, TimeSpan.FromDays(40), _dataResolution);

                foreach (var bar in history)
                {
                    std.Update(bar);
                    consolidator.Update(bar);
                    shortTermMA.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close);
                    consolidatorDaily.Update(bar);
                }

                var signal = new SVMBaselineSignalWIP(consolidator, stoch, stochMA, rollingStochMA, stochEmaLSMA, rollingStochEmaSlope, ema, emaMA,
                                                      rollingEmaSlope, shortTermMA, dailyEmaLSMA, rollingDailyEmaSlope, Portfolio[symbol], Securities[symbol], this);

                Securities[symbol].VolatilityModel = new AverageTrueRangeVolatilityModel(std);
                _tradingAssets.Add(symbol,
                                   new TradingAsset(Securities[symbol],
                                                    new OneShotTrigger(signal),
                                                    new ProfitTargetSignalExit(null, _targetProfitLoss),
                                                    _maximumTradeRisk,
                                                    _maximumTradeSize,
                                                    this
                                                    ));
            }

            //AddData<DailyFx>("DFX", Resolution.Second, TimeZones.Utc);

            Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday),
                        TimeRules.At(7, 0, TimeZones.London), () =>
            {
                var tradeableDay = TradingCalendar.GetTradingDay().BusinessDay;
                if (tradeableDay)
                {
                    foreach (var s in Symbols)
                    {
                        _tradingAssets[s].IsTradable = true;
                    }
                }
            });

            Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday),
                        TimeRules.At(20, 0, TimeZones.London), () =>
            {
                foreach (var s in Symbols)
                {
                    _tradingAssets[s].IsTradable = false;
                }
            });

            Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Friday),
                        TimeRules.BeforeMarketClose(Symbols.First(), 60), () =>
            {
                foreach (var s in Symbols)
                {
                    _tradingAssets[s].Liquidate();
                }
            });

            Chart plotter = new Chart("Plotter");

            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Price", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("EMA", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Buy", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Green, ScatterMarkerSymbol.Triangle));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Sell", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Red, ScatterMarkerSymbol.TriangleDown));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Stopped", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Yellow, ScatterMarkerSymbol.Diamond));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Prediction", SeriesType.Bar, 1));
            plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Probability", SeriesType.Bar, 2));
            AddChart(plotter);

            Chart indicator = new Chart("Indicator");

            indicator.AddSeries(new Series("STO", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            AddChart(indicator);

            Chart indicatorTrend = new Chart("IndicatorTrend");

            indicatorTrend.AddSeries(new Series("STO", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            AddChart(indicatorTrend);

            Chart trend = new Chart("Trend");

            trend.AddSeries(new Series("LSMA", SeriesType.Line, 0));
            trend.AddSeries(new Series("EMA", SeriesType.Line, 1));
            AddChart(trend);

            Chart prediction = new Chart("Prediction");

            prediction.AddSeries(new Series("Pred", SeriesType.Bar, 0));
            AddChart(prediction);

            Chart probability = new Chart("Probability");

            probability.AddSeries(new Series("Prob", SeriesType.Bar, 0));
            AddChart(probability);
        }
Пример #5
0
        public SVMSignal(QuoteBarConsolidator consolidator, Stochastic stoch, HullMovingAverage stochMA, RollingWindow <double> rolling, ExponentialMovingAverage ema, SecurityHolding securityHolding, SVMStrategy qcAlgorithm)
        {
            _consolidator    = consolidator;
            _stoch           = stoch;
            _StochMA         = stochMA;
            _rolling         = rolling;
            _ema             = ema;
            _securityHolding = securityHolding;
            _qcAlgorithm     = qcAlgorithm;

            stochMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
            {
                try
                {
                    var filtered = _rolling.TakeWhile((s) => args.Value > 50 ? s > 50 : args.Value < 50 ? s < 50 : false);

                    var currentQuote = (QuoteBar)_consolidator.Consolidated;

                    //Console.WriteLine("{0}, {1}, {2}", filtered.Count(), _rolling.Count(), _stoch.Current.Value);
                    var inputs = new double[] { filtered.Average(), filtered.Count(), (double)(currentQuote.Close / _ema.Current.Value) };
                    _inputs.Add(inputs);
                    inputs = Accord.Statistics.Tools.ZScores(_inputs.ToArray()).Last();
                    _inputs.RemoveAt(_inputs.Count - 1);

                    if (_pcaTransform)
                    {
                        inputs = _pca.Transform(inputs);
                    }

                    var prediction    = _svm.Decide(inputs);
                    var probability   = _svm.Probability(inputs);
                    var logLikelihood = _svm.LogLikelihood(inputs);

                    _qcAlgorithm.PlotSignal((QuoteBar)_consolidator.Consolidated, prediction == 0 ? -1 : prediction, logLikelihood);

                    /*var dbnPredictions = _dbn.Compute(inputs);
                     * var shortPrediction = dbnPredictions.First();
                     * var longPrediction = dbnPredictions.Last();*/

                    if (_securityHolding.Invested && Signal == SignalType.Long && prediction == 0)
                    {
                        //Console.WriteLine("Long Exit Time: {0} Prediction: {1} Probability: {2}", args.EndTime, prediction, probability);
                    }
                    else if (_securityHolding.Invested && Signal == SignalType.Short && prediction == 1)
                    {
                        //Console.WriteLine("Short Exit Time: {0} Prediction: {1} Probability: {2}", args.EndTime, prediction, probability);
                    }

                    if (prediction != 2)
                    {
                        //Console.WriteLine("Time: {0} Prediction: {1} Probability: {2}, Log Likelihood: {3} Score: {4}", args.EndTime, prediction, probability, logLikelihood);
                    }

                    // EURUSD 0.9999
                    var probabilityFilter = logLikelihood >= 9;//probability >= 0.999999;// && _previousPredictions.IsReady && _previousPredictions.All((p) => p == prediction);

                    var aboveEma = currentQuote.Close > _ema.Current.Value;
                    var belowEma = currentQuote.Close < _ema.Current.Value;

                    var longExit  = Signal == SignalType.Long && belowEma;  //prediction == 0;
                    var shortExit = Signal == SignalType.Short && aboveEma; //prediction == 1;

                    if (!_securityHolding.Invested && probabilityFilter && prediction == 1 && _rolling[0] > rolling[1] && aboveEma)
                    {
                        Signal = Signal != SignalType.PendingLong ? SignalType.PendingLong : SignalType.Long;

                        if (_debug)
                        {
                            Console.WriteLine("Long Signal: {0} Probability: {1} Log Likelihood: {2}", Signal, probability, logLikelihood);
                            Console.WriteLine("Long STO: {0} STO MA: {1} Count: {2}", _stoch.Current.Value, args.Value, filtered.Count());
                            Console.WriteLine("Long Time: {0} Price: {1}", _consolidator.Consolidated.Time, _consolidator.Consolidated.Value);
                        }
                    }
                    else if (!_securityHolding.Invested && probabilityFilter && prediction == 0 && _rolling[0] < rolling[1] && belowEma)
                    {
                        Signal = Signal != SignalType.PendingShort ? SignalType.PendingShort : SignalType.Short;

                        if (_debug)
                        {
                            Console.WriteLine("Short Signal: {0} Probability: {1} Log Likelihood: {2}", Signal, probability, logLikelihood);
                            Console.WriteLine("Short STO: {0} STO MA: {1} Count: {2}", _stoch.Current.Value, args.Value, filtered.Count());
                            Console.WriteLine("Short Time: {0} Price: {1}", _consolidator.Consolidated.Time, _consolidator.Consolidated.Value);
                        }
                    }
                    else if ((_securityHolding.Invested && longExit) || (_securityHolding.Invested && shortExit))
                    {
                        if (_debug)
                        {
                            Console.WriteLine("Exit Signal: {0} Probability: {1} Log Likelihood: {2}", Signal, probability, logLikelihood);
                            Console.WriteLine("Exit STO: {0} STO MA: {1} Count: {2}", _stoch.Current.Value, args.Value, filtered.Count());
                            Console.WriteLine("Exit Time: {0} Price: {1}", _consolidator.Consolidated.Time, _consolidator.Consolidated.Value);
                        }

                        Signal = SignalType.Exit;
                    }
                    else if (!_securityHolding.Invested && (Signal == SignalType.PendingLong || Signal == SignalType.PendingShort))
                    {
                        Signal = SignalType.NoSignal;
                    }
                    else
                    {
                        //Signal = SignalType.NoSignal;
                    }
                }
                catch (Exception ex)
                {
                    Console.WriteLine(ex.Message);
                    Signal = SignalType.NoSignal;
                }
            };
        }