public IObservable <BookmakerOdd> GetBookmakerOdds(IObservable <SentimentDelta> probabilityDeltas, Random random)
{
var bookmakerSentiments = new Dictionary <string, BookmakersSentiment>();
var changeInSentiment = probabilityDeltas.SelectMany(delta =>
{
var newMarket = delta.OpeningPrediction;
var key = string.Format("{0} vs. {1}", delta.TeamA, delta.TeamB);
if (!bookmakerSentiments.ContainsKey(key))
{
bookmakerSentiments.Add(key, new BookmakersSentiment
{
PayoutVariancePct = this.payout - .93m
});
newMarket = true;
}
if (newMarket || delta.ClosingPrediction || random.NextDouble() >= probabilityOfBookmakerMissingSentiment)
{
var bookmakerSentiment = bookmakerSentiments[key];
bookmakerSentiment = bookmakerSentiment.VarySentiment(random);
var bookmakerSentimentNorm = 1 + (bookmakerSentiment.HomeWinVariancePct
+ bookmakerSentiment.DrawVariancePct
+ bookmakerSentiment.AwayWinVariancePct);
var newHomeWinImpliedProbability = ((delta.HomeWinProbabilityCurrent + bookmakerSentiment.HomeWinVariancePct) / bookmakerSentimentNorm);
var newDrawImpliedProbability = ((delta.DrawProbabilityCurrent + bookmakerSentiment.DrawVariancePct) / bookmakerSentimentNorm);
var newAwayWinImpliedProbability = ((delta.AwayWinProbabilityCurrent + bookmakerSentiment.AwayWinVariancePct) / bookmakerSentimentNorm);
var bookmakerOdd = new BookmakerOdd
{
Bookmaker = this.name,
TeamA = delta.TeamA,
TeamB = delta.TeamB,
HomeWinOdds = Math.Round((this.payout + bookmakerSentiment.PayoutVariancePct) / newHomeWinImpliedProbability, 2),
DrawOdds = Math.Round((this.payout + bookmakerSentiment.PayoutVariancePct) / newDrawImpliedProbability, 2),
AwayWinOdds = Math.Round((this.payout + bookmakerSentiment.PayoutVariancePct) / newAwayWinImpliedProbability, 2),
OpeningOdds = newMarket,
ClosingOdds = delta.ClosingPrediction
};
if (delta.ClosingPrediction)
{
bookmakerSentiments.Remove(key);
}
return(Observable.Return(bookmakerOdd));
}
else
{
return(Observable.Empty <BookmakerOdd>());
}
});
return(changeInSentiment.Publish().RefCount());
}
private void BroadcastBookmakerPriceUpdate(BookmakerOdd odd)
{
var context = GlobalHost.ConnectionManager.GetHubContext <OddsHub>();
context.Clients.All.broadcastBookmakerPriceUpdate(odd);
}
