public static IList <Constituency> GetConstituencies(Election electionToPredict, bool includeEnglandWales, bool includeScotland)
{
dynamic loadedJson;
using (StreamReader r = new StreamReader(constuencyDataPath))
{
string json = r.ReadToEnd();
//List<Item> items = JsonConvert.DeserializeObject<List<Item>>(json);
loadedJson = JsonConvert.DeserializeObject(json);
}
var constituencies = loadedJson.constituencies;
List <Constituency> constituenciesList = new List <Constituency>();
foreach (var constituency in constituencies)
{
var c = new Constituency();
var regionString = (string)constituency.region;
if (regionString == "Northern Ireland" || (!includeScotland && regionString == "Scotland") || (!includeEnglandWales && regionString != "Scotland"))
{
continue; // ignore NI
}
c.Region = GetRegionFromString(regionString);
c.Name = (string)constituency.name;
c.ONSReference = (string)constituency.onsRef;
var euRef = constituency.referendums.eu;
c.ReferendumResults = new Dictionary <ReferendumResult, double>
{
{ ReferendumResult.Leave, (double)euRef.leave },
{ ReferendumResult.Remain, (double)euRef.remain }
};
var electionResult = electionToPredict == Election.e2017 ? constituency.elections["2015"] : constituency.elections["2017"];
c.PreviousVote = new Dictionary <Party, double>();
foreach (var result in electionResult)
{
Party party = GetPartyFromString((string)result.Name);
double value = (double)result.Value;
if (party == Party.Other && c.PreviousVote.ContainsKey(Party.Other))
{
c.PreviousVote[party] = c.PreviousVote[party] + value;
}
else
{
c.PreviousVote.Add(party, value);
}
}
if (electionToPredict == Election.e2017)
{
var actualResults = new Dictionary <Party, double>();
foreach (var result in constituency.elections["2017"])
{
Party party = GetPartyFromString((string)result.Name);
double value = (double)result.Value;
if (party == Party.Other && actualResults.ContainsKey(Party.Other))
{
actualResults[party] = actualResults[party] + value;
}
else
{
actualResults.Add(party, value);
}
}
c.ActualWinner = actualResults.OrderByDescending(r => r.Value).First().Key;
}
c.Ages = new Dictionary <AgeGroup, double>();
foreach (var result in constituency.age)
{
AgeGroup age = (AgeGroup)Enum.Parse(typeof(AgeGroup), (string)result.Name);
c.Ages.Add(age, (double)result.Value);
}
c.SocialGrades = new Dictionary <SocialGrade, double>();
foreach (var result in constituency.socialGrades)
{
SocialGrade socialGrade = (SocialGrade)Enum.Parse(typeof(SocialGrade), (string)result.Name);
c.SocialGrades.Add(socialGrade, (double)result.Value);
}
constituenciesList.Add(c);
}
return(constituenciesList);
}
public Party GetLikeliestParty(Party previousVote, AgeGroup age, Gender gender, ReferendumResult referendum, Region region, SocialGrade socialGrade)
{
var likeliestParty = Party.None;
var highestScore = 0d;
foreach (var party in Enum.GetValues(typeof(Party)).Cast <Party>())
{
//if (party == Party.SNP && region != Region.Scotland)
//{
// continue;
//}
//var isRegionalParty = (region == Region.Scotland && party == Party.SNP) || (region == Region.MidlandsWales && party == Party.PlaidCymru);
//var regionalMultiplier = isRegionalParty ? 2 : 1;
//var bonusPreviousParty = previousVote == party ? 2 : 1;
var score = AgeProbabilities[age].GetVotingLikelihood(party) +
GenderProbabilities[gender].GetVotingLikelihood(party) +
ReferendumProbabilities[referendum].GetVotingLikelihood(party) +
(RegionProbabilities[region].GetVotingLikelihood(party)) +
SocialGradeProbabilities[socialGrade].GetVotingLikelihood(party);
if (previousVote == Party.UKIP && party == Party.UKIP && referendum == ReferendumResult.Leave)
{
var x = true;
}
if (PreviousElectionProbabilities.ContainsKey(previousVote))
{
score += PreviousElectionProbabilities[previousVote].GetVotingLikelihood(party);
score /= 6;
}
else
{
score /= 5;
}
if (previousVote == party || region == Region.Scotland || true)
{
score *= 5;
Random random = new Random();
var rand = random.Next(100);
if (region == Region.Scotland && rand > 90 && previousVote.IsUnionist() && party.IsUnionist())
{
score *= 100;
}
else if (rand > 80 && previousVote == party)// || ())
{
score *= 100;
}
else if (rand > 40)
{
//if (rand > 60 && region == Region.Scotland)
//{
// score += RegionProbabilities[region].GetVotingLikelihood(party) * 80;
//}
//else if (region != Region.Scotland)
{
if (rand > 68)
{
score += AgeProbabilities[age].GetVotingLikelihood(party) * 80;
}
else if (rand > 62)
{
score += GenderProbabilities[gender].GetVotingLikelihood(party) * 80;
}
else if (rand > 52)
{
score += SocialGradeProbabilities[socialGrade].GetVotingLikelihood(party) * 80;
}
else if (region != Region.Scotland)
{
score += RegionProbabilities[region].GetVotingLikelihood(party) * 80;
}
}
}
}
if (score > highestScore)
{
likeliestParty = party;
highestScore = score;
}
}
if (likeliestParty == Party.None)
{
throw new Exception("Couldnt find likeliest party");
}
return(likeliestParty);
}
