public TreeEvent()
{
ProbabilitySpecificationType = ProbabilitySpecificationType.FixedValue;
FixedProbability = (Probability)1;
ClassesProbabilitySpecification = new ObservableCollection <ExpertClassEstimation>();
FixedFragilityCurve = new FragilityCurve();
}
public static FragilityCurve GetFragilityCurve(this TreeEvent treeEvent, IEnumerable <double> waterLevels)
{
switch (treeEvent.ProbabilitySpecificationType)
{
case ProbabilitySpecificationType.Classes:
var classCurve = new FragilityCurve();
foreach (var waterLevel in waterLevels)
{
classCurve.Add(new FragilityCurveElement(waterLevel, GetClassesBasedProbabilityForWaterLevel(treeEvent, waterLevel)));
}
return(classCurve);
case ProbabilitySpecificationType.FixedFreqeuncy:
// TODO: Interpolate if necessary
return(treeEvent.FixedFragilityCurve);
case ProbabilitySpecificationType.FixedValue:
var curve = new FragilityCurve();
foreach (var waterLevel in waterLevels)
{
curve.Add(new FragilityCurveElement(waterLevel, treeEvent.FixedProbability));
}
return(curve);
default:
throw new NotImplementedException();
}
}
public static FragilityCurve CalculateCombinedProbabilityFragilityCurve(HydraulicCondition[] conditions, CriticalPathElement[] treeEventCurves)
{
if (!CheckProbabilitiesAreEqual(conditions, treeEventCurves))
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException();
}
var curve = new FragilityCurve();
for (int i = 0; i < conditions.Length - 1; i++)
{
double waterLevelProbability = conditions[i].Probability;
double nextWaterLevelProbability = conditions[i + 1].Probability;
double estimatedCombinedProbability = CalculateConditionalProbability(conditions[i].WaterLevel, treeEventCurves);
double nextEstimatedCombinedProbability = CalculateConditionalProbability(conditions[i + 1].WaterLevel, treeEventCurves);
var m9 = (estimatedCombinedProbability - nextEstimatedCombinedProbability) / Math.Log(waterLevelProbability / nextWaterLevelProbability);
var n9 = estimatedCombinedProbability - m9 * Math.Log(waterLevelProbability);
var interpiolated = (Probability)((n9 * waterLevelProbability + m9 * (waterLevelProbability * Math.Log(waterLevelProbability) - waterLevelProbability))
- (n9 * nextWaterLevelProbability + m9 * (nextWaterLevelProbability * Math.Log(nextWaterLevelProbability) - nextWaterLevelProbability)));
curve.Add(new FragilityCurveElement(conditions[i].WaterLevel, interpiolated));
}
var lastCondition = conditions.Last();
curve.Add(new FragilityCurveElement(lastCondition.WaterLevel, lastCondition.Probability));
return(curve);
}
public static FragilityCurve GetClassBasedLowerFragilityCurve(this TreeEvent treeEvent, IEnumerable <double> waterLevels)
{
var curve = new FragilityCurve();
foreach (var waterLevel in waterLevels)
{
curve.Add(new FragilityCurveElement(waterLevel, GetClassesBasedProbabilityForWaterLevel(treeEvent, waterLevel, e => e.MinEstimation)));
}
return(curve);
}
public static FragilityCurve CalculateCombinedFragilityCurve(HydraulicCondition[] conditions, CriticalPathElement[] criticalPathElements)
{
if (!CheckProbabilitiesAreEqual(criticalPathElements))
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException();
}
var curve = new FragilityCurve();
foreach (var condition in conditions)
{
curve.Add(new FragilityCurveElement(condition.WaterLevel, CalculateConditionalProbability(condition.WaterLevel, criticalPathElements)));
}
return(curve);
}
public FragilityCurveViewModel(FragilityCurve curve)
{
FragilityCurve = curve;
}
public CriticalPathElement(TreeEvent treeEvent, FragilityCurve fragilityCurve, bool failElement)
{
Element = treeEvent;
FragilityCurve = fragilityCurve;
ElementFails = failElement;
}
public static Probability CalculateProbability(FragilityCurve partialProbabilityCurve)
{
return((Probability)partialProbabilityCurve.Sum(p => p.Probability));
}
