private void RateGame(NFLGame g)
{
if (g.Played())
{
if (AuditIt)
{
Utility.Announce(string.Format("Rating game {0}", g.ScoreOut()));
}
// workout the Average Score
//AverageScore = Season.AverageScoreAfterWeek( g.WeekNo );
const int averageScore = 21; // this is pretty much fixed
var adjustment = new NibbleGameRating(0, 0, 0, 0);
var ff = FudgeFactor();
adjustment.HomeOff = (MaximumScore(g.HomeScore) - averageScore) / ff;
adjustment.HomeDef = (MaximumScore(g.AwayScore) - averageScore) / ff;
adjustment.AwayOff = (MaximumScore(g.AwayScore) - averageScore) / ff;
adjustment.AwayDef = (MaximumScore(g.HomeScore) - averageScore) / ff;
if (AuditIt)
{
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Actual score {0} {1:00} v {2} {3:00}",
g.HomeTeam, g.HomeScore, g.AwayTeam, g.AwayScore));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments H {0} {1} - {2}",
g.HomeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff, adjustment.HomeDef));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments A {0} {1} - {2}",
g.AwayTeam, adjustment.AwayOff, adjustment.AwayDef));
}
AdjustRatings(adjustment, g.HomeTeam, g.AwayTeam);
}
}
private void AdjustRatings(
NibbleGameRating startingGameRating,
NibbleGameRating adjustment,
string homeTeam,
string awayTeam,
string week)
{
Debug.Assert((Math.Abs(adjustment.HomeOff) < 10), "adjustment too big",
$"Week {week} home team {homeTeam} adj={adjustment.HomeOff}");
var newHomeOff = startingGameRating.HomeOff + adjustment.HomeOff;
var newHomeDef = startingGameRating.HomeDef + adjustment.HomeDef;
var newAwayOff = startingGameRating.AwayOff + adjustment.AwayOff;
var newAwayDef = startingGameRating.AwayDef + adjustment.AwayDef;
var homeRating = new NibbleTeamRating(newHomeOff, newHomeDef);
var awayRating = new NibbleTeamRating(newAwayOff, newAwayDef);
var homeKey = KeyFor(homeTeam);
var awayKey = KeyFor(awayTeam);
UpdateRating(
teamCode: homeKey,
rating: homeRating,
week: Int32.Parse(week));
UpdateRating(
teamCode: awayKey,
rating: awayRating,
week: Int32.Parse(week));
}
private void RateGame(NFLGame g)
{
if (g.Played())
{
Utility.Announce(string.Format("Rating game {0}", g.GameName()));
// workout the Average Score
//AverageScore = Season.AverageScoreAfterWeek( g.WeekNo );
AverageScore = 21; // this is pretty much fixed
// workout adjustments to the previous ratings
NibbleGameRating startingGameRating;
if (g.Week.Equals("01"))
{
startingGameRating = new NibbleGameRating(
ho: 0,
hd: 0,
ao: 0,
ad: 0);
}
else
{
// Get previous rating
startingGameRating = GetRating(g);
}
var projHome = (int)(AverageScore + ((startingGameRating.HomeOff + startingGameRating.AwayDef) / 2));
projHome += 3; // home field advantage
var projAway = (int)(AverageScore + ((startingGameRating.AwayOff + startingGameRating.HomeDef) / 2));
var adjustment = new NibbleGameRating(0, 0, 0, 0);
var ff = FudgeFactor(g.Week);
adjustment.HomeOff = (MaximumScore(g.HomeScore) - projHome) / ff;
adjustment.HomeDef = (MaximumScore(g.AwayScore) - projAway) / ff;
adjustment.AwayOff = (MaximumScore(g.AwayScore) - projAway) / ff;
adjustment.AwayDef = (MaximumScore(g.HomeScore) - projHome) / ff;
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Projected score {0} {1:00} v {2} {3:00}",
g.HomeTeam, projHome, g.AwayTeam, projAway));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Actual score {0} {1:00} v {2} {3:00}",
g.HomeTeam, g.HomeScore, g.AwayTeam, g.AwayScore));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments H {0} {1} - {2}",
g.HomeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff, adjustment.HomeDef));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments A {0} {1} - {2}",
g.AwayTeam, adjustment.AwayOff, adjustment.AwayDef));
AdjustRatings(
startingGameRating: startingGameRating,
adjustment: adjustment,
homeTeam: g.HomeTeam,
awayTeam: g.AwayTeam,
week: g.Week);
}
}
private void AdjustRatings(NibbleGameRating adjustment,
string homeTeam, string awayTeam)
{
Debug.Assert((Math.Abs(adjustment.HomeOff) < 10), "adjustment too big",
string.Format("home team {0} adj={1}", homeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff));
var homeRating = new NibbleTeamRating(adjustment.HomeOff, adjustment.HomeDef);
var awayRating = new NibbleTeamRating(adjustment.AwayOff, adjustment.AwayDef);
UpdateRating(homeTeam, homeRating);
UpdateRating(awayTeam, awayRating);
}
private void AdjustRatings(NibbleGameRating startingGameRating, NibbleGameRating adjustment,
string homeTeam, string awayTeam, string week)
{
Debug.Assert((Math.Abs(adjustment.HomeOff) < 10), "adjustment too big",
string.Format("Week {0} home team {1} adj={2}", week, homeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff));
var newHomeOff = startingGameRating.HomeOff + adjustment.HomeOff;
var newHomeDef = startingGameRating.HomeDef + adjustment.HomeDef;
var newAwayOff = startingGameRating.AwayOff + adjustment.AwayOff;
var newAwayDef = startingGameRating.AwayDef + adjustment.AwayDef;
var homeRating = new NibbleTeamRating(newHomeOff, newHomeDef);
var awayRating = new NibbleTeamRating(newAwayOff, newAwayDef);
var homeKey = KeyFor(homeTeam);
var awayKey = KeyFor(awayTeam);
UpdateRating(homeKey, homeRating, Int32.Parse(week));
UpdateRating(awayKey, awayRating, Int32.Parse(week));
}
public NibbleGameRating GetRating(NFLGame g)
{
var homeKey = KeyFor(g.HomeTeam);
var awayKey = KeyFor(g.AwayTeam);
var prevWeek = g.WeekNo - 2; // one for zero based and one for the week
var homeRatings = (NibbleTeamRating[])Rates[homeKey];
var homeRating = homeRatings[prevWeek];
var awayRatings = (NibbleTeamRating[])Rates[awayKey];
var awayRating = awayRatings[prevWeek];
var gameGameRating =
new NibbleGameRating(homeRating.Offence, homeRating.Defence, awayRating.Offence, awayRating.Defence);
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Week {6:00} Game Rating {0} {1}-{2} v {3} {4}-{5}",
g.HomeTeam, homeRating.Offence, homeRating.Defence,
g.AwayTeam, awayRating.Offence, awayRating.Defence,
g.WeekNo));
return(gameGameRating);
}
private void AdjustRatings( NibbleGameRating adjustment,
string homeTeam, string awayTeam )
{
Debug.Assert( ( Math.Abs( adjustment.HomeOff ) < 10 ), "adjustment too big",
string.Format( "home team {0} adj={1}", homeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff ) );
var homeRating = new NibbleTeamRating( adjustment.HomeOff, adjustment.HomeDef );
var awayRating = new NibbleTeamRating( adjustment.AwayOff, adjustment.AwayDef );
UpdateRating( homeTeam, homeRating );
UpdateRating( awayTeam, awayRating );
}
private void RateGame( NFLGame g )
{
if ( g.Played() )
{
if ( AuditIt ) Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Rating game {0}", g.ScoreOut() ) );
// workout the Average Score
//AverageScore = Season.AverageScoreAfterWeek( g.WeekNo );
const int averageScore = 21; // this is pretty much fixed
var adjustment = new NibbleGameRating( 0, 0, 0, 0 );
var ff = FudgeFactor();
adjustment.HomeOff = ( MaximumScore( g.HomeScore ) - averageScore ) / ff;
adjustment.HomeDef = ( MaximumScore( g.AwayScore ) - averageScore ) / ff;
adjustment.AwayOff = ( MaximumScore( g.AwayScore ) - averageScore ) / ff;
adjustment.AwayDef = ( MaximumScore( g.HomeScore ) - averageScore ) / ff;
if ( AuditIt )
{
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Actual score {0} {1:00} v {2} {3:00}",
g.HomeTeam, g.HomeScore, g.AwayTeam, g.AwayScore));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments H {0} {1} - {2}",
g.HomeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff, adjustment.HomeDef));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments A {0} {1} - {2}",
g.AwayTeam, adjustment.AwayOff, adjustment.AwayDef));
}
AdjustRatings( adjustment, g.HomeTeam, g.AwayTeam);
}
}
private void RateGame( NFLGame g )
{
if ( g.Played() )
{
Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Rating game {0}", g.GameName() ) );
// workout the Average Score
//AverageScore = Season.AverageScoreAfterWeek( g.WeekNo );
AverageScore = 21; // this is pretty much fixed
// workout adjustments to the previous ratings
NibbleGameRating startingGameRating;
if ( g.Week.Equals( "01" ) )
startingGameRating = new NibbleGameRating( 0, 0, 0, 0 );
else
// Get previous rating
startingGameRating = GetRating( g );
var projHome = (int) ( AverageScore + ( ( startingGameRating.HomeOff + startingGameRating.AwayDef )/2 ) );
projHome += 3; // home field advantage
var projAway = (int) ( AverageScore + ( ( startingGameRating.AwayOff + startingGameRating.HomeDef )/2 ) );
var adjustment = new NibbleGameRating( 0, 0, 0, 0 );
var ff = FudgeFactor( g.Week );
adjustment.HomeOff = ( MaximumScore( g.HomeScore ) - projHome ) / ff;
adjustment.HomeDef = ( MaximumScore( g.AwayScore ) - projAway ) / ff;
adjustment.AwayOff = ( MaximumScore( g.AwayScore ) - projAway ) / ff;
adjustment.AwayDef = ( MaximumScore( g.HomeScore ) - projHome ) / ff;
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Projected score {0} {1:00} v {2} {3:00}",
g.HomeTeam, projHome, g.AwayTeam, projAway));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Actual score {0} {1:00} v {2} {3:00}",
g.HomeTeam, g.HomeScore, g.AwayTeam, g.AwayScore));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments H {0} {1} - {2}",
g.HomeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff, adjustment.HomeDef ));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Adjustments A {0} {1} - {2}",
g.AwayTeam, adjustment.AwayOff, adjustment.AwayDef));
AdjustRatings( startingGameRating, adjustment, g.HomeTeam, g.AwayTeam, g.Week );
}
}
private void AdjustRatings( NibbleGameRating startingGameRating, NibbleGameRating adjustment,
string homeTeam, string awayTeam, string week )
{
Debug.Assert( ( Math.Abs(adjustment.HomeOff ) < 10 ), "adjustment too big",
string.Format("Week {0} home team {1} adj={2}", week, homeTeam, adjustment.HomeOff));
var newHomeOff = startingGameRating.HomeOff + adjustment.HomeOff;
var newHomeDef = startingGameRating.HomeDef + adjustment.HomeDef;
var newAwayOff = startingGameRating.AwayOff + adjustment.AwayOff;
var newAwayDef = startingGameRating.AwayDef + adjustment.AwayDef;
var homeRating = new NibbleTeamRating( newHomeOff, newHomeDef );
var awayRating = new NibbleTeamRating( newAwayOff, newAwayDef );
var homeKey = KeyFor( homeTeam );
var awayKey = KeyFor( awayTeam );
UpdateRating( homeKey, homeRating, Int32.Parse( week ) );
UpdateRating( awayKey, awayRating, Int32.Parse( week ) );
}
public NibbleGameRating GetRating( NFLGame g )
{
var homeKey = KeyFor( g.HomeTeam );
var awayKey = KeyFor( g.AwayTeam );
var prevWeek = g.WeekNo - 2; // one for zero based and one for the week
var homeRatings = (NibbleTeamRating[]) Rates[ homeKey ];
var homeRating = homeRatings[ prevWeek ];
var awayRatings = (NibbleTeamRating[]) Rates[ awayKey ];
var awayRating = awayRatings[ prevWeek ];
var gameGameRating =
new NibbleGameRating( homeRating.Offence, homeRating.Defence, awayRating.Offence, awayRating.Defence );
Utility.Announce(string.Format( " Week {6:00} Game Rating {0} {1}-{2} v {3} {4}-{5}",
g.HomeTeam, homeRating.Offence, homeRating.Defence,
g.AwayTeam, awayRating.Offence, awayRating.Defence,
g.WeekNo ) );
return gameGameRating;
}
