internal void PredictVotersIntentions(VoterManager canterburyTest)
{
var predictionFunction = mlContext.Model.CreatePredictionEngine <Voter, VoterPrediction>(model);
foreach (var voter in canterburyTest.Voters)
{
var prediction = predictionFunction.Predict(voter);
var summedProbabilities = new Dictionary <int, float>();
for (int n = 0; n < parties.Count; n++)
{
var previous = n == 0 ? 0 : summedProbabilities[n - 1];
summedProbabilities.Add(n, previous + prediction.VotingIntention[n]);
}
Random r = new Random();
var prob = r.NextDouble() * summedProbabilities.Values.Last();
for (int n = 0; n < parties.Count; n++)
{
var previous = n == 0 ? 0 : summedProbabilities[n - 1];
if (prob >= previous && prob < summedProbabilities[n])
{
voter.IntentionEnum = parties[n];
continue;
}
}
if (!voter.IntentionEnum.HasValue)
{
throw new InvalidOperationException("Failed to predict how this voter would vote");
}
//voter.IntentionEnum = parties[prediction.PredictedLabel];
}
}
static void Main(string[] args)
{
OutputController output = new OutputController(logPath);
ElectionMLModel model = null;
for (int n = 1; n <= iterations; n++)
{
Console.WriteLine($"Run {n}");
model = new ElectionMLModel();
if (LoadInFromFile)
{
model.LoadModel();
}
else
{
var probabilies = new ProbabiliesManager(predictionType);
var voters = new VoterManager(predictionType);
voters.GenerateVotersNationally(numberOfNationalVotersToGenerate);
voters.GenerateLikelyVotingIntension(probabilies);
var x = true;
//Console.WriteLine("Hello World!");
voters.OutputNationalVotingIntention();
Console.WriteLine("Building model...");
Console.WriteLine();
model.TrainModel(voters.Voters);
//var testVoter = new Voter
//{
// AgeGroupEnum = AgeGroup.A65Plus,
// GenderEnum = Gender.Female,
// PreviousVoteEnum = Party.Con,
// ReferendumResultEnum = ReferendumResult.Leave,
// RegionEnum = Region.MidlandsWales,
// SocialGradeEnum = SocialGrade.ABC1
//};
//model.Predict(testVoter);
}
/*
* var nuneaton = new VoterManager();
* nuneaton.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.NuneatonExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(nuneaton);
* nuneaton.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();
*
* var batterseaTest = new VoterManager();
* batterseaTest.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.BatterseaExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(batterseaTest);
* batterseaTest.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();
*
* var peterboroughTest = new VoterManager();
* peterboroughTest.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.PeterboroughExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(peterboroughTest);
* peterboroughTest.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();
*
* var canterburyTest = new VoterManager();
* canterburyTest.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.CanterburyExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(canterburyTest);
* canterburyTest.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();
*
* var southamptonItchenTest = new VoterManager();
* southamptonItchenTest.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.SouthamptonItchenExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(southamptonItchenTest);
* southamptonItchenTest.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();
*
* var yorkCentralTest = new VoterManager();
* yorkCentralTest.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.YorkCentralExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(yorkCentralTest);
* yorkCentralTest.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();
*
* var yorkOuterTest = new VoterManager();
* yorkOuterTest.GenerateVotersForConstituency(Constituency.YorkOuterExample, 10000);
* model.PredictVotersIntentions(yorkOuterTest);
* yorkOuterTest.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention();*/
var totalSeats = new Dictionary <Party, int>();
int countDif = 0;
var constituencyIntentions = new Dictionary <string, VoterManager>();
var includeEnglandWales = predictionType == PredictionType.EnglandWales2017 || predictionType == PredictionType.EnglandWales2019;
var includeScotland = predictionType == PredictionType.Scotland2017 || predictionType == PredictionType.Scotland2019;
foreach (var constituency in ConstituencyManager.GetConstituencies(ElectionToPredict, includeEnglandWales, includeScotland))
{
//Console.WriteLine($"Predicting for {constituency.Name}...");
var constituencyVoters = new VoterManager(predictionType);
constituencyVoters.GenerateVotersForConstituency(constituency, 10000);
model.PredictVotersIntentions(constituencyVoters);
if (!totalSeats.ContainsKey(constituencyVoters.Winner))
{
totalSeats.Add(constituencyVoters.Winner, 1);
}
else
{
totalSeats[constituencyVoters.Winner] = totalSeats[constituencyVoters.Winner] + 1;
}
if (constituencyVoters.IsDifferent)
{
countDif++;
constituencyVoters.OutputConstituencyVotingIntention(true);
}
constituencyIntentions.Add(constituency.Name.Replace(",", ""), constituencyVoters);
}
Console.WriteLine();
Console.WriteLine("Totals -------------------");
Console.WriteLine("--------------------------");
if (totalSeats.Values.Max() > 400)
{
Console.WriteLine("Ignoring model as infeasible");
n--;
continue;
}
int con = totalSeats.ContainsKey(Party.Con) ? totalSeats[Party.Con] : 0;
int lab = totalSeats.ContainsKey(Party.Lab) ? totalSeats[Party.Lab] : 0;
int ld = totalSeats.ContainsKey(Party.LibDem) ? totalSeats[Party.LibDem] : 0;
string results = $"{con},{lab},{ld},";
output.WriteLine(results);
AddRecordOfPrediction(constituencyIntentions);
//foreach (var result in totalSeats.OrderByDescending(x => x.Value))
//{
// output.WriteLine($"Party: {result.Key.ToString()}. Seats: {result.Value}");
//}
//output.WriteLine();
//output.WriteLine($"Number different: {countDif}");
//output.WriteLine();
}
using (OutputController combinedOutput = new OutputController(winningPath))
{
foreach (var name in combinedResults.Keys)
{
string winners = $"{name},{string.Join(",", combinedResults[name])}";
combinedOutput.WriteLine(winners);
}
}
using (OutputController conOutput = new OutputController(conPath))
{
foreach (var name in combinedCon.Keys)
{
string conVotes = $"{name},{string.Join(",", combinedCon[name])}";
conOutput.WriteLine(conVotes);
}
}
using (OutputController labOutput = new OutputController(labPath))
{
foreach (var name in combinedLab.Keys)
{
string labVotes = $"{name},{string.Join(",", combinedLab[name])}";
labOutput.WriteLine(labVotes);
}
}
using (OutputController ldOutput = new OutputController(ldPath))
{
foreach (var name in combinedLD.Keys)
{
string ldVotes = $"{name},{string.Join(",", combinedLD[name])}";
ldOutput.WriteLine(ldVotes);
}
}
using (OutputController snpOutput = new OutputController(snpPath))
{
foreach (var name in combinedSNP.Keys)
{
string snpVotes = $"{name},{string.Join(",", combinedSNP[name])}";
snpOutput.WriteLine(snpVotes);
}
}
using (OutputController actualResults = new OutputController(actualWinners))
{
foreach (var c in ConstituencyManager.GetConstituencies(Election.e2017, true, false))
{
actualResults.WriteLine($"{c.Name.Replace(",", "")},{c.ActualWinner.ToString()}");
}
}
var save = Console.ReadLine();
if (!String.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(save))
{
model.SaveModelAsFile();
}
}