public void Test1()
{
// SplitMix64
var seed = 1234567ul;
Xoshiro256StarStar.SplitMix64(ref seed).Is(6457827717110365317ul);
Xoshiro256StarStar.SplitMix64(ref seed).Is(3203168211198807973ul);
Xoshiro256StarStar.SplitMix64(ref seed).Is(9817491932198370423ul);
Xoshiro256StarStar.SplitMix64(ref seed).Is(4593380528125082431ul);
Xoshiro256StarStar.SplitMix64(ref seed).Is(16408922859458223821ul);
var xo = new Xoshiro256StarStar(42);
DoubleToString(xo.NextDouble()).Is("0.0838629710598822");
DoubleToString(xo.NextDouble()).Is("0.3789802506626686");
DoubleToString(xo.NextDouble()).Is("0.6800434110281394");
DoubleToString(xo.NextDouble()).Is("0.9246929453253876");
DoubleToString(xo.NextDouble()).Is("0.9918039142821028");
string DoubleToString(double d) => d.ToString("F16");
xo.NextUInt64().Is(14199186830065750584ul);
xo.NextUInt64().Is(13267978908934200754ul);
xo.NextUInt64().Is(15679888225317814407ul);
xo.NextUInt64().Is(14044878350692344958ul);
xo.NextUInt64().Is(10760895422300929085ul);
}
public static void QuickStart_Xoshiro256StarStar()
{
// xoshiro256** is a pseudo-random number generator.
var xo = new Xoshiro256StarStar(42);
var ul = xo.NextUInt64(); // [0, 2^64-1]
var d = xo.NextDouble(); // [0,1)
var bytes = new byte[10];
xo.NextBytes(bytes);
}
public static void TestQuantileTrap()
{
Xoshiro256StarStar rand = new Xoshiro256StarStar(8675309);
const int numberOfDists = 10;
//const double meanOfNormals = 50;
//const double stdDevOfNormals = 0.002;
double Shape() => 2 *rand.NextDouble() - 1;
double Scale() => 0.002 *rand.NextDouble() + 0;
double Location() => 180 *rand.NextDouble();
IDistributionWrapper[] dists = new IDistributionWrapper[numberOfDists];
for (int i = 0; i < dists.Length; i++)
{
//dists[i] = new WrappedDistribution(new Normal(rand.NextDouble() * meanOfNormals * 2, 0 + Math.Abs(rand.NextDouble() * stdDevOfNormals)), -100, 200); // Bounds are unused here
dists[i] = new WrappedDistribution(new GEV(Location(), Scale(), Shape(), rand), -100, 100);
}
double[] exact = DiscardProbabilityComputation.ComplementsTrapezoid(dists, 50000);
Console.WriteLine("Exact:");
for (int i = 0; i < exact.Length; i++)
{
Console.WriteLine($"{i}: {dists[i].GetWrappedDistribution()} 1-P(D_i) = {exact[i]}");
}
exact = DiscardProbabilityComputation.ComplementsMonteCarloMaximizing(dists);
Console.WriteLine("MC:");
for (int i = 0; i < exact.Length; i++)
{
Console.WriteLine($"{i}: {dists[i].GetWrappedDistribution()} 1-P(D_i) = {exact[i]}");
}
double[] est;
int[] its = new int[] { 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 75, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 20000 };
for (int i = 0; i < its.Length; i++)
{
int size = its[i];
est = DiscardProbabilityComputation.ComplementsQuantileTrapRule(dists, size);
Console.WriteLine($"Size {size}:");
for (int j = 0; j < est.Length; j++)
{
Console.WriteLine($"{j}: {dists[j].GetWrappedDistribution()} 1-P(D_i) = {est[j]}");
}
}
}
public static void TestGEVComplementComputations()
{
double ep = Math.Pow(2, -50);
double complementEp = 1.0 - ep;
int testSize = 20;
//GEV[] dists = new GEV[] { new GEV(0,200,-1), new GEV(0,100,-1) };
GEV[] dists = new GEV[testSize];
Random rand = new Xoshiro256StarStar(8675309);
for (int i = 0; i < dists.Length; i++)
{
dists[i] = new GEV(rand.NextDouble(), rand.NextDouble(), -rand.NextDouble(), rand);
}
IDistributionWrapper[] wrappedDists = new IDistributionWrapper[dists.Length];
for (int i = 0; i < dists.Length; i++)
{
wrappedDists[i] = new WrappedDistribution(dists[i], dists[i].InverseCumulativeDistribution(ep), dists[i].InverseCumulativeDistribution(complementEp));
}
double[] complements = DiscardProbabilityComputation.ComplementsClenshawCurtisAutomatic(wrappedDists);
double[] complemetnsTrap = DiscardProbabilityComputation.ComplementsTrapezoid(wrappedDists, 10000);
double[] mcComplements = DiscardProbabilityComputation.ComplementsMonteCarlo(wrappedDists, iterations: 10000000);
double totalc = 0;
double totalmc = 0;
double totalTrap = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < complements.Length; i++)
{
GEV dist = dists[i];
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Distribution Scale: {dist.scale} Loc {dist.location} Shape {dist.shape} " +
$"1-P(D) {complements[i]} MC {mcComplements[i]} Trap {complemetnsTrap[i]}");
totalc += complements[i];
totalmc += mcComplements[i];
totalTrap += complemetnsTrap[i];
}
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Total probability: {totalc} Total by MC: {totalmc} Total by Trap 10k: {totalTrap}");
}
public void RunAllIterations(IScenario scenario, int noOfIterations, int numberOfThreads, int seed,
int maxSimulationQueueSize, bool addDatesToOutputFileNames = false)
{
SaveFilesWithDates = addDatesToOutputFileNames;
_cancelSignal = new CancellationTokenSource();
_numberOfDays = scenario.DaysToProject;
_seedGenerator = new Xoshiro256StarStar(seed, true);
var initializationInfo = PrepareInitializationInfo(scenario);
SaveScenario(scenario);
PrepareOutputFiles();
// this is to ensure that the memory requirements don't run away as we generate simulations faster than they can be processed
_simulations = new BlockingCollection <TSimulation>(maxSimulationQueueSize);
var processingTasks = new Task[numberOfThreads + 1];
processingTasks[0] = ProduceSimulations(noOfIterations, initializationInfo, _cancelSignal.Token);
for (var t = 0; t < numberOfThreads; t++)
{
processingTasks[t + 1] = Task.Factory.StartNew(ConsumeSimulations, _cancelSignal.Token);
}
try
{
Task.WaitAll(processingTasks);
Log.Information("All processing threads have finished");
}
catch (AggregateException a)
{
Log.Error(a, "Failed to run all iterations");
throw;
}
}
/// <summary> Runs the algorithm in an attempt to narrow down the solution space to a set of regions
/// which can then be checked exhaustively. </summary>
/// <param name="layers"> The number of iterations before terminating </param>
/// <param name="confidenceLevel"> A number between 0 and 1 describing the confidence level to be used in statistical comparisons </param>
/// <param name="Conservative"> Whether or not to always keep all regions for which it is not possible to rule out that they contain optimal values with 95% confidence.
/// Results can be higher quality with this on, but it may take significantly longer to run </param>
/// <param name="CullDuplicates"> If true, duplicate regions will be removed after at the end of each layer. Requires the solution space to implement <see cref="IEquatable{T}"/> </param>
/// <returns> An array of regions that are likely to contain optimal solutions </returns>
public Region[] RunBranchAndBound(int sampleSize, int layers, double confidenceLevel, bool Conservative = true, bool CullDuplicates = false)
{
// Sanity check the initial sample size
if (sampleSize < 30)
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException("Sample size must be at least 30.");
}
double branchingFactor = 0; // Keeps track of average branches per active region per layer, which may not be constant if there is overlap between regions
double BestObservedValue = double.PositiveInfinity;
Region[] activeRegions = new Region[1] {
SolutionSpace
};
List <Region> discardedRegions = new List <Region>(512);
// Determine how many stdevs to use when computing the threshold for keeping otherwise discardable regions because they might contain minima
double k = Math.Sqrt(1.0 / (1.0 - confidenceLevel) - 1.0); // Using Chebyshev's inequality, with a stardardization for tightening the bound
// Main loop
for (int layer = 0; layer < layers; layer++)
{
// --- Branch and Sample Active Regions ---
// Branch the active regions
var newActiveRegions = new List <Region>();
foreach (Region reg in activeRegions)
{
if (reg != null)
{
newActiveRegions.AddRange(reg.Branch());
}
}
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Branched to produce {newActiveRegions.Count} new regions.");
// Cull duplicates if desired
if (CullDuplicates)
{
for (int i = 1; i < newActiveRegions.Count; i++)
{
for (int j = 0; j < i; j++)
{
if (newActiveRegions[i].Equals(newActiveRegions[j]))
{
newActiveRegions.RemoveAt(i);
i--;
break;
}
}
}
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Duplicates culled. {newActiveRegions.Count} regions remain.");
}
// Update branching factor
branchingFactor = (branchingFactor * layer + newActiveRegions.Count / activeRegions.Length) / (layer + 1);
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Branching factor revised to {branchingFactor}");
activeRegions = newActiveRegions.ToArray();
// Set up random number generators for each task in a deterministic way
Random[] rands = new Random[activeRegions.Length];
for (int i = 0; i < rands.Length; i++)
{
rands[i] = new Xoshiro256StarStar(SolutionSpace.GetRNG().Next());
}
// Sample the regions (now with 300% more threads!)
Task[] tasks = new Task[activeRegions.Length];
for (int i = 0; i < activeRegions.Length; i++)
{
int j = i; // To avoid issues with lambda closure, one of the few quirks of this language
tasks[j] = Task.Run(() => { activeRegions[j].Sample(sampleSize, rands[j]); });
}
Task.WaitAll(tasks);
//foreach (Region reg in activeRegions) { reg.Sample(sampleSize); }
// Compute discard probabilities and number of discardable regions
Normal[] samplingDistributions = new Normal[activeRegions.Length + discardedRegions.Count];
for (int i = 0; i < activeRegions.Length; i++)
{
samplingDistributions[i] = activeRegions[i].SamplingDistribution;
}
for (int i = 0; i < discardedRegions.Count; i++)
{
samplingDistributions[i + activeRegions.Length] = discardedRegions[i].SamplingDistribution;
}
double[] discardComplements = NormalComparison.ComputeDiscardComplementsClenshawCurtisAltInvariantAutomatic(samplingDistributions);
// If discard can likely be increased cheaply, increase sample size repeatedly until it can't
int currentDiscardCount = EnumerateDiscardableRegions(discardComplements);
int currentSampleSize = sampleSize;
bool increasing = true;
while (increasing)
{
int newSampleSize = currentSampleSize + (int)(currentSampleSize * branchingFactor / activeRegions.Length);
// Construct a new set of normal distributions estimating the scenario where a larger sample size was used on each
var hypotheticals = new Normal[samplingDistributions.Length];
for (int i = 0; i < activeRegions.Length; i++)
{
hypotheticals[i] = activeRegions[i].EstimateDistributionWithDifferentSampleSize(newSampleSize);
}
for (int i = 0; i < discardedRegions.Count; i++)
{
hypotheticals[activeRegions.Length + i] = discardedRegions[i].SamplingDistribution;
}
double[] hypoDiscardProbs = NormalComparison.ComputeDiscardComplementsClenshawCurtisAltInvariantAutomatic(hypotheticals);
int discardable = EnumerateDiscardableRegions(hypoDiscardProbs);
if (discardable <= currentDiscardCount)
{
increasing = false;
}
else
{
currentSampleSize = newSampleSize;
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Revision expected to increase discard count from {currentDiscardCount} to {discardable}");
currentDiscardCount = discardable;
}
}
// If sample size was increased, resample active regions up to that size
if (currentSampleSize > sampleSize)
{
for (int i = 0; i < activeRegions.Length; i++)
{
activeRegions[i].Sample(currentSampleSize);
samplingDistributions[i] = activeRegions[i].SamplingDistribution;
}
discardComplements = NormalComparison.ComputeDiscardComplementsClenshawCurtisAltInvariantAutomatic(samplingDistributions);
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Layer sample size increased to {currentSampleSize}");
}
// Update the best observed value
foreach (Region reg in activeRegions)
{
BestObservedValue = Math.Min(reg.BestObservation, BestObservedValue);
}
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Best value observed in layer: {BestObservedValue}");
// --- Discard Regions ---
// Note: The sorting here is inefficient, but conceptually clearer than doing a quicksort and it isn't a performance bottleneck
double certainty = 1;
// Handle the discarded regions' contributions first
for (int i = activeRegions.Length; i < discardComplements.Length; i++)
{
certainty -= discardComplements[i];
}
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Uncertainty due to previously discarded regions: {1-certainty}");
bool discarding = true;
int discardCountTemp = 0;
while (discarding)
{
// Find the active region with the largest discard value
double min = 1;
int minIndex = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < activeRegions.Length; i++)
{
if (discardComplements[i] < min &&
activeRegions[i] != null
// Skip regions if they have too high of a probability of containing observations that compete with the current best
&& ((activeRegions[i].SampleMean - k * activeRegions[i].SampleStdDev > BestObservedValue) || !Conservative))
{
min = discardComplements[i]; minIndex = i;
}
}
// Try to discard it
if (certainty - min > confidenceLevel)
{
certainty -= min;
if (min > 1E-18)
{
discardedRegions.Add(activeRegions[minIndex]);
}
activeRegions[minIndex] = null;
discardCountTemp++;
}
else
{
discarding = false;
}
}
// Discard completely uncompetetive regions with prejudice
int discarded = 0;
for (int i = activeRegions.Length; i < discardComplements.Length; i++)
{
if (discardComplements[i] < 1E-13)
{
discardedRegions.RemoveAt(i - activeRegions.Length - discarded); discarded++;
}
}
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Forgot {discarded} unimportant discarded regions. {discardedRegions.Count} discarded regions remain.");
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Layer {layer} complete. Analyzed {activeRegions.Length} active regions, and discarded {discardCountTemp} active regions.");
Program.logger.WriteLine("--- Active Regions --- ");
for (int i = 0; i < activeRegions.Length; i++)
{
if (activeRegions[i] != null)
{
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Region {i}: {activeRegions[i].ToString()} \n");
}
}
Program.logger.WriteLine("--- Discarded Regions Still Affecting Probabilities --- ");
for (int i = 0; i < discardedRegions.Count; i++)
{
Program.logger.WriteLine($"Region {i}: {discardedRegions[i].ToString()} \n");
}
}
// Shrinkwrap the output
var output = new List <Region>(activeRegions);
output.RemoveAll(r => (r == null));
return(output.ToArray());
}
public void Test1()
{
var xo = new Xoshiro256StarStar(42);
var rv = new RandomVault(() => xo.NextUInt64(), x => xo.NextBytes(x));
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.0838629710598822");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.3789802506626686");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.6800434110281394");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.9246929453253876");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.9918039142821028");
string DoubleToString(double d) => d.ToString("F16");
rv.NextUInt64().Is(14199186830065750584ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(13267978908934200754ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(15679888225317814407ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(14044878350692344958ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(10760895422300929085ul);
// NextULong only
xo = new Xoshiro256StarStar(42);
rv = new RandomVault(() => xo.NextUInt64(), null);
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.0838629710598822");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.3789802506626686");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.6800434110281394");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.9246929453253876");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.9918039142821028");
rv.NextUInt64().Is(14199186830065750584ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(13267978908934200754ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(15679888225317814407ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(14044878350692344958ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(10760895422300929085ul);
// NextBytes only
xo = new Xoshiro256StarStar(42);
rv = new RandomVault(null, x => xo.NextBytes(x));
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.0838629710598822");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.3789802506626686");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.6800434110281394");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.9246929453253876");
DoubleToString(rv.NextDouble()).Is("0.9918039142821028");
rv.NextUInt64().Is(14199186830065750584ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(13267978908934200754ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(15679888225317814407ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(14044878350692344958ul);
rv.NextUInt64().Is(10760895422300929085ul);
// Multi-thread
var xo2 = new Xoshiro256StarStar(42);
var rv2 = new RandomVault(() => xo2.NextUInt64(), x => xo2.NextBytes(x));
const int P = 100;
const int N = 1000;
var array = new Queue <ulong> [P];
var t = Parallel.For(0, P, x =>
{
var queue = new Queue <ulong>();
for (var i = 0; i < N; i++)
{
queue.Enqueue(rv2.NextUInt64());
}
array[x] = queue;
});
var ss = new SortedSet <ulong>();
for (var i = 0; i < P; i++)
{
array[i].Count.Is(N);
while (array[i].TryDequeue(out var u))
{
ss.Contains(u).IsFalse();
ss.Add(u);
}
}
ss.Count.Is(P * N);
}
public static void P3()
{
Xoshiro256StarStar rand = new Xoshiro256StarStar();
int RunProcess(int time)
{
int popsize = 1;
for (int t = 0; t < time; t++)
{
int newpopSize = popsize;
for (int i = 0; i < popsize; i++)
{
double val = rand.NextDouble();
if (val < 0.25)
{
newpopSize--;
}
if (val > 0.5)
{
newpopSize++;
}
if (val > 0.75)
{
newpopSize++;
}
}
popsize = newpopSize;
}
return(popsize);
}
int sum = 0;
int tests = 10000000;
/*
* for (int i = 0; i < tests; i++)
* {
* sum += RunProcess(5);
* }
* double avgAfter5 = sum *1.0 / tests;
*
* Console.WriteLine($"E(5) = {avgAfter5}");
*
* int count = 0;
* tests = 5000;
* int limit = 30;
* for (int i = 0; i < tests; i++)
* {
* if (RunProcess(limit) == 0) { count++; }
* }
* double proportionDead = count * 1.0 / tests;
*
* Console.WriteLine($"Pi_0 = {proportionDead}");
*/
tests = 100000000;
sum = 0;
double lambda1 = 1.0 / 11;
double lambda2 = 1.0 / 9;
double lambda3 = 1.0 / 8;
for (int i = 0; i < tests; i++)
{
double s1, s2, s3;
s1 = Exponential.Sample(rand, lambda1);
s2 = Exponential.Sample(rand, lambda2);
s3 = Exponential.Sample(rand, lambda3);
if (s1 > 10 && s2 > 10 && s3 > 10)
{
sum++;
}
}
double proportionLess = sum * 1.0 / tests;
Console.WriteLine($"Proportion = {proportionLess}");
//Console.WriteLine($"L1 / (L1 + L2) = {lambda1 / (lambda1 + lambda2)}");
Console.ReadLine();
}
public void StaticSamplesConsistent()
{
Assert.That(Xoshiro256StarStar.Doubles(1000, 1), Is.EqualTo(new Xoshiro256StarStar(1).NextDoubles(1000)).Within(1e-12).AsCollection);
}
