private TimeSeriesByDay GroupByContinents(TimeSeriesByDay countiesTimeSeriesByDay)
{
var continentTimeSeries = new TimeSeriesByDay();
foreach (var countryDay in countiesTimeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData)
{
var continentsData = countryDay.LocationsData.GroupBy(countryData => countryData.Continent).Select(
continentData => new LocationData
{
Continent = continentData.Key,
TotalCases = continentData.Sum(countryData => countryData.TotalCases)
}).ToList();
var continentDay = new DayWithLocationsData
{
DayNumber = countryDay.DayNumber,
Date = countryDay.Date,
LocationsData = continentsData.Where(continentData => !string.IsNullOrEmpty(continentData.Continent)).ToList()
};
continentTimeSeries.DaysWithLocationData.Add(continentDay);
}
this.AdjustRealDaysData(continentTimeSeries);
return(continentTimeSeries);
}
private TimeSeriesByDay GroupByCountries(TimeSeriesByDay readTimeSeriesByDay)
{
var countryTimeSeries = new TimeSeriesByDay();
foreach (var countryDay in readTimeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData)
{
var countriesData = countryDay.LocationsData.GroupBy(readData => readData.Country)
.Select(
countryData => new LocationData
{
Country = countryData.Key,
TotalCases = countryData.Sum(readData => readData.TotalCases)
}).ToList();
var continentDay = new DayWithLocationsData
{
DayNumber = countryDay.DayNumber,
Date = countryDay.Date,
LocationsData = countriesData
};
countryTimeSeries.DaysWithLocationData.Add(continentDay);
}
this.AdjustRealDaysData(countryTimeSeries);
return(countryTimeSeries);
}
private TimeSeriesByDay AggregateTimeSeries(TimeSeriesByDay countriesTimeSeriesByDay, PredictionSettings predictionSettings)
{
var aggregatedTimeSeries = new TimeSeriesByDay();
foreach (var day in countriesTimeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData)
{
var aggregatedTimeSeriesDay = new DayWithLocationsData
{
DayNumber = day.DayNumber,
Date = day.Date
};
foreach (var locationData in day.LocationsData)
{
switch (predictionSettings.CountrySearchType)
{
case CountrySearchType.Inside when !string.IsNullOrEmpty(locationData.Country) && predictionSettings.Countries.Contains(locationData.Country):
case CountrySearchType.Outside when string.IsNullOrEmpty(locationData.Country) || !predictionSettings.Countries.Contains(locationData.Country):
aggregatedTimeSeriesDay.TotalCases += locationData.TotalCases;
break;
}
}
aggregatedTimeSeries.DaysWithLocationData.Add(aggregatedTimeSeriesDay);
}
this.AdjustRealDaysData(aggregatedTimeSeries);
return(aggregatedTimeSeries);
}
private Func <double, double> CalculateRegressionFunction(TimeSeriesByDay timeSeriesByDay)
{
var daysDataForPrediction = timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData
.Skip(1).ToArray();
var xData = daysDataForPrediction.Select(dayData => (double)dayData.DayNumber).ToArray();
var yData = daysDataForPrediction.Select(dayData => (double)dayData.NewCases).ToArray();
var regressionFunction = Fit.PolynomialFunc(xData, yData, 2);
return(regressionFunction);
}
private void AdjustRealDaysData(TimeSeriesByDay timeSeriesByDay)
{
foreach (var day in timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData)
{
var previousDay = timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData.GetPreviousElement(day, 1);
day.NewCases = previousDay == null ? 0 : day.TotalCases - previousDay.TotalCases;
var previousWeekDay = timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData.GetPreviousElement(day, 7);
day.WeeklyNewCases = previousWeekDay == null ? 0 : (day.TotalCases - previousWeekDay.TotalCases) / 7;
foreach (var locationData in day.LocationsData)
{
locationData.NewCases = previousDay == null ? 0 : locationData.TotalCases - previousDay.LocationsData.Single(previousDayLocation => previousDayLocation.Equals(locationData)).TotalCases;
locationData.WeeklyNewCases = previousWeekDay == null ? 0 : locationData.TotalCases - previousWeekDay.LocationsData.Single(previousWeekDayLocation => previousWeekDayLocation.Equals(locationData)).TotalCases;
}
}
}
private PredictionTimeSeries CreatePredictionTimeSeries(TimeSeriesByDay timeSeriesByDay, Func <double, double> regressionFunction)
{
var firstDay = timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData.First();
var predictionDaysData = new List <PredictionDayData>
{
new PredictionDayData
{
DayNumber = firstDay.DayNumber,
Date = firstDay.Date,
TotalCases = firstDay.TotalCases,
NewCases = firstDay.NewCases
}
};
while (predictionDaysData.Count < (timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData.Count + 192))
{
var lastPredictionDay = predictionDaysData.Last();
var realDay = timeSeriesByDay.DaysWithLocationData.FirstOrDefault(day => day.DayNumber == (lastPredictionDay.DayNumber + 1));
var newPredictionDay = new PredictionDayData
{
Date = lastPredictionDay.Date.AddDays(1),
DayNumber = lastPredictionDay.DayNumber + 1,
TotalCases = realDay?.TotalCases,
NewCases = realDay?.NewCases,
WeeklyNewCases = realDay?.WeeklyNewCases
};
newPredictionDay.PredictionNewCases = (long)regressionFunction(newPredictionDay.DayNumber);
newPredictionDay.PredictionTotalCases = lastPredictionDay.PredictionTotalCases + newPredictionDay.PredictionNewCases;
predictionDaysData.Add(newPredictionDay);
}
predictionDaysData.Remove(predictionDaysData.Last());
return(new PredictionTimeSeries
{
DaysData = predictionDaysData.Where(day => day.PredictionNewCases > 0).ToList()
});
}
