public static void CheckTeamForms(PredictionData data, Game game)
{
var leagueRepo = new LeagueDataRepository();
var analysisRepo = new AnalysisDataRepository();
var homeTeamId = game.HomeTeamId;
var awayTeamId = game.AwayTeamId;
//home team
var homeTeamForm5 = analysisRepo.GetFootballTeamFormByIdAndType(game.SeasonRound.LeagueSeasonId, homeTeamId, TimePeriod.Last5Matches);
var wins = homeTeamForm5.WinsPercentage;
var losses = homeTeamForm5.LossesPercentage;
var draws = homeTeamForm5.DrawsPercentage;
var medianProbability = Math.Max(Math.Min(wins, losses), Math.Min(Math.Max(wins, losses), draws));
if (wins > medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
}
else if (wins < medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
if (losses > medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
}
else if (losses < medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
if (draws > medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
}
else if (draws < medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
var bttsYes = (double)homeTeamForm5.BTTS_Yes / homeTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
var bttsNo = (double)homeTeamForm5.BTTS_No / homeTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
if (bttsYes > bttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
else
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
var totalOver = (double)homeTeamForm5.GamesOver2_5 / homeTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
var totalUnder = (double)homeTeamForm5.GamesUnder2_5 / homeTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
if (totalOver > totalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
else
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
//away team
var awayTeamForm5 = analysisRepo.GetFootballTeamFormByIdAndType(game.SeasonRound.LeagueSeasonId, awayTeamId, TimePeriod.Last5Matches);
wins = awayTeamForm5.WinsPercentage;
losses = awayTeamForm5.LossesPercentage;
draws = awayTeamForm5.DrawsPercentage;
medianProbability = Math.Max(Math.Min(wins, losses), Math.Min(Math.Max(wins, losses), draws));
if (wins > medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
}
else if (wins < medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
if (losses > medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
}
else if (losses < medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
if (draws > medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
}
else if (draws < medianProbability)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
bttsYes = (double)awayTeamForm5.BTTS_Yes / awayTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
bttsNo = (double)awayTeamForm5.BTTS_No / awayTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
if (bttsYes > bttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
else
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
totalOver = (double)awayTeamForm5.GamesOver2_5 / awayTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
totalUnder = (double)awayTeamForm5.GamesUnder2_5 / awayTeamForm5.GamePlayed;
if (totalOver > totalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
else
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= TeamFormCoef;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability /= TeamFormCoef;
}
}
public static void CheckSeasonStreaks(PredictionData data, Game game)
{
var leagueRepo = new LeagueDataRepository();
var analysisRepo = new AnalysisDataRepository();
var seasonStats = analysisRepo.GetSeasonStats(game.SeasonRound.LeagueSeasonId);
var allSeasonGames = leagueRepo.GetAllSeasonGames(game.SeasonRound.LeagueSeasonId).Where(g => g.Result != 0).OrderByDescending(g => g.Date).ToList();
//var homeTeamId = game.HomeTeamId;
//var awayTeamId = game.AwayTeamId;
int lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = -1, lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = -1, lastDrawGamesAgo = -1;
int lastBttsYes = -1, lastBttsNo = -1;
int lastTotalOver = -1, lastTotalUnder = -1;
for (int i = 0; i < allSeasonGames.Count; i++)
{
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo > -1 && lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo > -1 && lastDrawGamesAgo > -1 &&
lastTotalOver > -1 && lastTotalUnder > -1 && lastBttsYes > -1 && lastBttsNo > -1)
{
break;
}
var tempGame = allSeasonGames[i];
switch (tempGame.Result)
{
case GameResult.HomeWin:
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.Draw:
if (lastDrawGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastDrawGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.AwayWin:
if (lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
}
var totalOver = (tempGame.AwayTeamGoals + tempGame.HomeTeamGoals) > 2;
if (totalOver && (lastTotalOver == -1))
{
lastTotalOver = i;
}
if (!totalOver && (lastTotalUnder == -1))
{
lastTotalUnder = i;
}
var bttsYes = (tempGame.AwayTeamGoals > 0) && (tempGame.HomeTeamGoals > 0);
if (bttsYes && (lastBttsYes == -1))
{
lastBttsYes = i;
}
if (!bttsYes && (lastBttsNo == -1))
{
lastBttsNo = i;
}
}
var averageHomeTeamWinFreq = 1 / seasonStats.HomeWinsPercentage;
var averageAwayTeamWinFreq = 1 / seasonStats.AwayWinsPercentage;
var averageDrawsFreq = 1 / seasonStats.DrawsPercentage;
var averageBttsYesFreq = (double)seasonStats.GamePlayed / seasonStats.BTTS_Yes;
var averageBttsNoFreq = (double)seasonStats.GamePlayed / seasonStats.BTTS_No;
var averageTotalOverFreq = (double)seasonStats.GamePlayed / seasonStats.GamesOver2_5;
var averageTotalUnderFreq = (double)seasonStats.GamePlayed / seasonStats.GamesUnder2_5;
var minFreq = averageHomeTeamWinFreq;
if (averageAwayTeamWinFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageAwayTeamWinFreq;
}
if (averageDrawsFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageDrawsFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageHomeTeamWinFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageDrawsFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageAwayTeamWinFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
minFreq = averageBttsYesFreq;
if (averageBttsNoFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageBttsNoFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageBttsNoFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageBttsYesFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
minFreq = averageTotalOverFreq;
if (averageTotalUnderFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageTotalUnderFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageTotalOverFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageTotalUnderFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= SeasonStatsCoef;
}
//differences between last time some result happend and average result frequency
var diffHomeTeamWins = lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo - averageHomeTeamWinFreq;
var diffAwayTeamWins = lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo - averageAwayTeamWinFreq;
var diffDraws = lastDrawGamesAgo - averageDrawsFreq;
var diffBttsYes = lastBttsYes - averageBttsYesFreq;
var diffBttsNo = lastBttsNo - averageBttsNoFreq;
var diffTotalOver = lastTotalOver - averageTotalOverFreq;
var diffTotalUnder = lastTotalUnder - averageTotalUnderFreq;
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffHomeTeamWins);
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffAwayTeamWins);
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffDraws);
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffBttsYes);
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffBttsNo);
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffTotalOver);
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= GetCoefByDifference(diffTotalUnder);
}
public static void CheckH2H(PredictionData data, Game game)
{
var leagueRepo = new LeagueDataRepository();
var analysisRepo = new AnalysisDataRepository();
var homeTeamId = game.HomeTeamId;
var awayTeamId = game.AwayTeamId;
var h2hStats = analysisRepo.GetTeamsHeadToHead(homeTeamId, awayTeamId);
var teamsHistory = leagueRepo.GetTeamsHistory(homeTeamId, awayTeamId).Where(g => g.Result != 0)
.OrderByDescending(th => th.Date).ToList();
bool homeTeamMapsToTeam1 = h2hStats.Team1Id == homeTeamId;
int lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = -1, lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = -1, lastDrawGamesAgo = -1;
int lastBttsYes = -1, lastBttsNo = -1;
int lastTotalOver = -1, lastTotalUnder = -1;
for (int i = 0; i < teamsHistory.Count; i++)
{
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo > -1 && lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo > -1 && lastDrawGamesAgo > -1 &&
lastTotalOver > -1 && lastTotalUnder > -1 && lastBttsYes > -1 && lastBttsNo > -1)
{
break;
}
var tempGame = teamsHistory[i];
if (tempGame.HomeTeamId == homeTeamId)
{
switch (tempGame.Result)
{
case GameResult.HomeWin:
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.Draw:
if (lastDrawGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastDrawGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.AwayWin:
if (lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
}
}
else
{
switch (tempGame.Result)
{
case GameResult.HomeWin:
if (lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.Draw:
if (lastDrawGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastDrawGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
case GameResult.AwayWin:
if (lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo == -1)
{
lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo = i;
}
break;
}
}
var totalOver = (tempGame.AwayTeamGoals + tempGame.HomeTeamGoals) > 2;
if (totalOver && (lastTotalOver == -1))
{
lastTotalOver = i;
}
if (!totalOver && (lastTotalUnder == -1))
{
lastTotalUnder = i;
}
var bttsYes = (tempGame.AwayTeamGoals > 0) && (tempGame.HomeTeamGoals > 0);
if (bttsYes && (lastBttsYes == -1))
{
lastBttsYes = i;
}
if (!bttsYes && (lastBttsNo == -1))
{
lastBttsNo = i;
}
}
double averageHomeTeamWinFreq, averageAwayTeamWinFreq, averageDrawsFreq;
double averageBttsYesFreq, averageBttsNoFreq;
double averageTotalOverFreq, averageTotalUnderFreq;
if (homeTeamMapsToTeam1)
{
averageHomeTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team1WinsPercentage;
averageAwayTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team2WinsPercentage;
}
else
{
averageAwayTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team1WinsPercentage;
averageHomeTeamWinFreq = 1 / h2hStats.Team2WinsPercentage;
}
averageDrawsFreq = 1 / h2hStats.DrawsPercentage;
averageBttsYesFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.BTTS_Yes;
averageBttsNoFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.BTTS_No;
averageTotalOverFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.GamesOver2_5;
averageTotalUnderFreq = (double)h2hStats.GamePlayed / h2hStats.GamesUnder2_5;
var minFreq = averageHomeTeamWinFreq;
if (averageAwayTeamWinFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageAwayTeamWinFreq;
}
if (averageDrawsFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageDrawsFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageHomeTeamWinFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageDrawsFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageAwayTeamWinFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
minFreq = averageBttsYesFreq;
if (averageBttsNoFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageBttsNoFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageBttsNoFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageBttsYesFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
minFreq = averageTotalOverFreq;
if (averageTotalUnderFreq < minFreq)
{
minFreq = averageTotalUnderFreq;
}
if (minFreq == averageTotalOverFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
if (minFreq == averageTotalUnderFreq)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= H2HCoef;
}
//differences between last time some result happend and average result frequency
var diffHomeTeamWins = lastHomeTeamWinGamesAgo - averageHomeTeamWinFreq;
var diffAwayTeamWins = lastAwayTeamWinGamesAgo - averageAwayTeamWinFreq;
var diffDraws = lastDrawGamesAgo - averageDrawsFreq;
var diffBttsYes = lastBttsYes - averageBttsYesFreq;
var diffBttsNo = lastBttsNo - averageBttsNoFreq;
var diffTotalOver = lastTotalOver - averageTotalOverFreq;
var diffTotalUnder = lastTotalUnder - averageTotalUnderFreq;
var maxDiff = diffHomeTeamWins;
if (diffAwayTeamWins > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffAwayTeamWins;
}
if (diffDraws > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffDraws;
}
if (maxDiff == diffHomeTeamWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffDraws)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffAwayTeamWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
maxDiff = diffBttsYes;
if (diffBttsNo > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffBttsNo;
}
if (maxDiff == diffBttsYes)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffBttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
maxDiff = diffTotalOver;
if (diffTotalUnder > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = diffTotalUnder;
}
if (maxDiff == diffTotalOver)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
if (maxDiff == diffTotalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= H2HCoefLastGames;
}
}
public static PredictionOption MakeDecision(PredictionData data, out double maxDiffProbability, out double resultProbability, out double resultCoef)
{
PredictionOption maxDiffProbabilityOption = 0;
maxDiffProbability = -1;
resultProbability = -1;
resultCoef = -1;
//main results
var tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.HomeWinProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.HomeWin;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.HomeWinCoef;
}
tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.DrawProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.Draw;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.DrawCoef;
}
tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.AwayWinProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.AwayWin;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.AwayWinCoef;
}
//btts
tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.BttsYesProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.BttsYes;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.BttsYesCoef;
}
tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.BttsNoProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.BttsNo;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.BttsNoCoef;
}
//total
tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.TotalOverProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.TotalOver2_5;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.TotalOverCoef;
}
tempDiff = data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability - data.OriginProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability;
if (tempDiff > maxDiffProbability)
{
maxDiffProbability = tempDiff;
maxDiffProbabilityOption = PredictionOption.TotalUnder2_5;
resultProbability = data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.TotalUnderCoef;
}
return(maxDiffProbabilityOption);
}
public static void CheckRoundStats(PredictionData data, Game game)
{
var leagueRepo = new LeagueDataRepository();
var analysisRepo = new AnalysisDataRepository();
var allSeasons = leagueRepo.GetAllLeagueSeasons(leagueRepo.GetLaLiga()).OrderByDescending(s => s.StartYear).ToList();
int currentSeasonId = allSeasons.First().LeagueSeasonId;
var currentSeasonRounds = leagueRepo.GetCurrentSeasonRounds(currentSeasonId);
currentSeasonRounds = currentSeasonRounds.Where(r => r.RoundNumber <= game.SeasonRound.RoundNumber && CheckRound(r))
.OrderByDescending(r => r.RoundNumber).Take(5).ToList();
var currentSeasonRoundsStats = analysisRepo.GetAverageRoundStats(currentSeasonId);
var previousSeasonRoundsStats = allSeasons.Count > 1 ? analysisRepo.GetAverageRoundStats(allSeasons[1].LeagueSeasonId) : null;
var previous2SeasonRoundsStats = allSeasons.Count > 2 ? analysisRepo.GetAverageRoundStats(allSeasons[2].LeagueSeasonId) : null;
//average
var averageHomeWins = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.HomeWinsCount_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.HomeWinsCount_Average) / 2;
var averagDraws = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.DrawsCount_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.DrawsCount_Average) / 2;
var averageAwayWins = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.AwayWinsCount_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.AwayWinsCount_Average) / 2;
var averageBttsYes = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_Yes_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_Yes_Average) / 2;
var averageBttsNo = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_No_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_No_Average) / 2;
var averageTotalOver = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.GamesOver2_5_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.GamesOver2_5_Average) / 2;
var averagTotalUnder = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.GamesUnder2_5_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.GamesUnder2_5_Average) / 2;
//get maximal diff compared current season with last seasons
var currentDiffHomeWins = averageHomeWins - currentSeasonRoundsStats.HomeWinsCount_Average;
var currentDiffDraws = averagDraws - currentSeasonRoundsStats.DrawsCount_Average;
var currentDiffAwayWins = averageAwayWins - currentSeasonRoundsStats.AwayWinsCount_Average;
var currentDiffBttsYes = averageBttsYes - currentSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_Yes_Average;
var currentDiffBttsNo = averageBttsNo - currentSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_No_Average;
var currentDiffTotalOver = averageTotalOver - currentSeasonRoundsStats.GamesOver2_5_Average;
var currentDiffTotalUnder = averagTotalUnder - currentSeasonRoundsStats.GamesUnder2_5_Average;
var maxDiff = currentDiffHomeWins;
if (currentDiffDraws > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffDraws;
}
if (currentDiffAwayWins > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffAwayWins;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffHomeWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffDraws)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffAwayWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsYes;
if (currentDiffBttsNo > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsNo;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsYes)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalOver;
if (currentDiffTotalUnder > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalUnder;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalOver)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
//get maximal diff compared last 5 rounds with last seasons
currentDiffHomeWins = 0;
currentDiffDraws = 0;
currentDiffAwayWins = 0;
currentDiffBttsYes = 0;
currentDiffBttsNo = 0;
currentDiffTotalOver = 0;
currentDiffTotalUnder = 0;
int i = 1;
foreach (var round in currentSeasonRounds)
{
currentDiffHomeWins += (averageHomeWins - round.HomeWinsCount) / i;
currentDiffDraws += (averagDraws - round.DrawsCount) / i;
currentDiffAwayWins += (averageAwayWins - round.AwayWinsCount) / i;
currentDiffBttsYes += (averageBttsYes - round.BTTS_Yes) / i;
currentDiffBttsNo += (averageBttsNo - round.BTTS_No) / i;
currentDiffTotalOver += (averageTotalOver - round.GamesOver2_5) / i;
currentDiffTotalUnder += (averagTotalUnder - round.GamesUnder2_5) / i;
i++;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffHomeWins;
if (currentDiffDraws > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffDraws;
}
if (currentDiffAwayWins > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffAwayWins;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffHomeWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffDraws)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffAwayWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsYes;
if (currentDiffBttsNo > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsNo;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsYes)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalOver;
if (currentDiffTotalUnder > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalUnder;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalOver)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
}
public static PredictionOption GetOptionWithMaxPropability(PredictionData data, out double resultProbability, out double resultCoef)
{
PredictionOption result = 0;
resultProbability = 0;
resultCoef = 0;
//main results
if (data.OriginProbabilities.HomeWinProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.HomeWin;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.HomeWinProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.HomeWinCoef;
}
if (data.OriginProbabilities.DrawProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.Draw;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.DrawProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.DrawCoef;
}
if (data.OriginProbabilities.AwayWinProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.AwayWin;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.AwayWinProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.AwayWinCoef;
}
//btts
if (data.OriginProbabilities.BttsYesProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.BttsYes;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.BttsYesProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.BttsYesCoef;
}
if (data.OriginProbabilities.BttsNoProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.BttsNo;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.BttsNoProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.BttsNoCoef;
}
//total
if (data.OriginProbabilities.TotalOverProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.TotalOver2_5;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.TotalOverProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.TotalOverCoef;
}
if (data.OriginProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability > resultProbability)
{
result = PredictionOption.TotalUnder2_5;
resultProbability = data.OriginProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability;
resultCoef = data.OriginBookmakerOdds.TotalUnderCoef;
}
return(result);
}
public Prediction MakePrediction(Game game)
{
Prediction prediction = new Prediction {
GameId = game.GameId
};
var gameOdds = bookRepo.GetLatestBookmakerOddsForGame(game.GameId);
if (gameOdds == null)
{
throw new Exception("BookmakerOdds not available.");
}
PredictionData data = new PredictionData();
data.OriginBookmakerOdds = new PredictionBookmakerOdds()
{
HomeWinCoef = gameOdds.HomeWinCoef,
DrawCoef = gameOdds.DrawCoef,
AwayWinCoef = gameOdds.AwayWinCoef,
BttsNoCoef = gameOdds.BothTeamsToScore_No,
BttsYesCoef = gameOdds.BothTeamsToScore_Yes,
TotalOverCoef = gameOdds.Total2_5Over,
TotalUnderCoef = gameOdds.Total2_5Under
};
data.OriginProbabilities = PredictionData.CalculateProbabilitiesFromBookmakerOdds(data.OriginBookmakerOdds);
data.CalculatedProbabilities = new PredictionProbabilities(data.OriginProbabilities);
//apply data to probabilities
PredictionHelper.CheckRoundStats(data, game);
PredictionHelper.CheckH2H(data, game);
PredictionHelper.CheckTeamForms(data, game);
PredictionHelper.CheckSeasonStreaks(data, game);
data.CalculatedBookmakerOdds = PredictionData.CalculateBookmakerOddsFromProbabilities(data.CalculatedProbabilities,
data.OriginProbabilities.GetMainMargin(), data.OriginProbabilities.GetBttsMargin(), data.OriginProbabilities.GetTotalMargin());
//make decision
Random rand = new Random();
double maxDiffProbability;
double resultProbability;
double optionCoef;
var option = PredictionHelper.MakeDecision(data, out maxDiffProbability, out resultProbability, out optionCoef);
double maxProbability;
double originOptionCoef;
var originalOption = PredictionHelper.GetOptionWithMaxPropability(data, out maxProbability, out originOptionCoef);
if (maxProbability > resultProbability)
{
if ((maxProbability - resultProbability > 20) && (rand.NextDouble() >= 0.5 || optionCoef == 0))
{
option = originalOption;
optionCoef = originOptionCoef;
}
else
{
Console.WriteLine($"Choosen option with less probability then best. Best option: {originalOption} [{originOptionCoef}]. Choosen option: {option} [{optionCoef}]");
}
}
prediction.PredictionOption = option;
prediction.PredictionOptionCoef = prediction.PredictionOptionCoefMax = prediction.PredictionOptionCoefMin = optionCoef;
return(prediction);
}