public async Task <float> CalculateExpectedPointsAsync(Element element)
{
var fplWebApiClient = new WebApiClient();
ElementSummaryResponse elementSummaryResponse = await fplWebApiClient.GetElementSummaryAsync(element.Id);
float minutesPlayed = elementSummaryResponse.History.Sum(h => h.Minutes);
float ninetiesPlayed = minutesPlayed / 90;
float yellowCards = element.YellowCards;
float yellowCardsPerNinety = yellowCards / ninetiesPlayed;
float expectedYellowCardPoints = (yellowCardsPerNinety * PointsPerYellowCard);
float redCards = element.RedCards;
float redCardsPerNinety = redCards / ninetiesPlayed;
float expectedRedCardPoints = (redCardsPerNinety * PointsPerRedCard);
// Goals contribution
// TODO: consider discounting (100% for last 6 down to 50% for 20 games ago?)
float pointsPerGoal = PointsPerGoal(element.ElementType);
float goals = element.GoalsScored;
float goalsPerNinety = goals / ninetiesPlayed;
float expectedPointsFromGoalsOnHistory = pointsPerGoal * goalsPerNinety;
float expectedGoalsPerThreat = ExpectedGoalsPerThreat(element.ElementType);
float threat = elementSummaryResponse.History.Sum(h => float.Parse(h.Threat));
float threatPerNinety = threat / ninetiesPlayed;
float expectedGoalsFromThreat = threatPerNinety / expectedGoalsPerThreat;
float expectedPointsFromGoalsOnThreat = pointsPerGoal * expectedGoalsFromThreat;
float expectedPointsFromGoals =
(expectedPointsFromGoalsOnHistory * HistoryGoalsFactor) +
(expectedPointsFromGoalsOnThreat * ThreatGoalsFactor);
return(expectedYellowCardPoints +
expectedRedCardPoints +
expectedPointsFromGoals);
}
public async Task Make(WebApiClient fplWebApiClient, StaticResponse staticResponse, string path)
{
IEnumerable <Fixture> fixtures = await fplWebApiClient.GetFixturesAsync();
using (StreamWriter writer = new StreamWriter(File.Create(path)))
{
writer.WriteLine("event_id,player_id,player_name,difficulty,home,points");
int progress = 0;
int max = staticResponse.Elements.Count();
foreach (Element element in staticResponse.Elements)
{
Console.WriteLine($"Predicting {++progress} of {max}");
ElementSummaryResponse elementResponse = await fplWebApiClient.GetElementSummaryAsync(element.Id);
if (elementResponse == null)
{
continue;
}
ElementHistoryPast history2017 = elementResponse.HistoryPast.SingleOrDefault(hp => hp.SeasonName == "2017/18");
ElementHistoryPast history2018 = elementResponse.HistoryPast.SingleOrDefault(hp => hp.SeasonName == "2018/19");
ElementHistoryPast history2019 = elementResponse.HistoryPast.SingleOrDefault(hp => hp.SeasonName == "2019/20");
ModelInput fixtureData = new ModelInput()
{
Isvalid2017 = (history2017 == null) ? 0 : 1,
Minutes2017 = (history2017 == null) ? 0 : history2017.Minutes,
Points2017 = (history2017 == null) ? 0 : history2017.TotalPoints,
Influence2017 = (history2017 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2017.Influence),
Creativity2017 = (history2017 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2017.Creativity),
Threat2017 = (history2017 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2017.Threat),
Isvalid2018 = (history2018 == null) ? 0 : 1,
Minutes2018 = (history2018 == null) ? 0 : history2018.Minutes,
Points2018 = (history2018 == null) ? 0 : history2018.TotalPoints,
Influence2018 = (history2018 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2018.Influence),
Creativity2018 = (history2018 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2018.Creativity),
Threat2018 = (history2018 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2018.Threat),
Isvalid2019 = (history2019 == null) ? 0 : 1,
Minutes2019 = (history2019 == null) ? 0 : history2019.Minutes,
Points2019 = (history2019 == null) ? 0 : history2019.TotalPoints,
Influence2019 = (history2019 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2019.Influence),
Creativity2019 = (history2019 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2019.Creativity),
Threat2019 = (history2019 == null) ? 0 : float.Parse(history2019.Threat),
Playerid = element.Id,
Teamid = element.Team,
Position = element.ElementType,
Selectedby = float.Parse(element.SelectedByPercent),
Transfersin = element.TransfersInEvent,
Transfersout = element.TransfersOutEvent,
Diff = 2F,
Home = "0",
Value = element.NowCost
};
foreach (ElementHistory history in elementResponse.History)
{
Fixture gwFixture = fixtures.Single(f => f.Id == history.FixtureId);
AddPreviousGameweekToInput(fixtureData, history, gwFixture, staticResponse.CurrentEvent);
}
foreach (ElementFixture fixture in elementResponse.Fixtures.Take(5))
{
fixtureData.Diff = fixture.Difficulty;
fixtureData.Home = fixture.IsHome ? "1" : "0";
var predictionResult = ConsumeModel.Predict(fixtureData);
writer.WriteLine($"{fixture.EventId},{element.Id},{element.FirstName} {element.SecondName},{fixtureData.Diff},{fixtureData.Home},{predictionResult.Score}");
}
}
}
}
public async Task Build(WebApiClient fplWebApiClient, StaticResponse staticResponse, string path)
{
IEnumerable <Fixture> fixtures = await fplWebApiClient.GetFixturesAsync();
using (StreamWriter writer = new StreamWriter(File.Create(path)))
{
Event currentEvent = staticResponse.Events.Single(e => e.IsCurrent);
int numPreviousGameweeks = currentEvent.Id - 1;
string gameweeksHeader = BuildGameweeksHeader(currentEvent.Id);
writer.WriteLine($"{PreviousSeason.GetHeaderRow("2017")},{PreviousSeason.GetHeaderRow("2018")},{PreviousSeason.GetHeaderRow("2019")},{gameweeksHeader},playerid,teamid,position,selectedby,transfersin,transfersout,diff,home,value,points");
int progress = 0;
//IEnumerable<Element> elementsToProcess = staticResponse.Elements.Take(50);
IEnumerable <Element> elementsToProcess = staticResponse.Elements;
int max = elementsToProcess.Count();
foreach (Element element in elementsToProcess)
{
Console.WriteLine($"Processing {++progress} of {max}");
ElementSummaryResponse elementResponse = await fplWebApiClient.GetElementSummaryAsync(element.Id);
if (elementResponse == null)
{
continue;
}
ElementHistoryPast history2017 = elementResponse.HistoryPast.SingleOrDefault(hp => hp.SeasonName == "2017/18");
ElementHistoryPast history2018 = elementResponse.HistoryPast.SingleOrDefault(hp => hp.SeasonName == "2018/19");
ElementHistoryPast history2019 = elementResponse.HistoryPast.SingleOrDefault(hp => hp.SeasonName == "2019/20");
PreviousSeason season2017 = BuildPreviousSeason(history2017);
PreviousSeason season2018 = BuildPreviousSeason(history2018);
PreviousSeason season2019 = BuildPreviousSeason(history2019);
// First pass to build all previous match data by gameweek
var previousMatchesByGameweek = new Dictionary <int, PreviousMatch>();
foreach (ElementHistory history in elementResponse.History)
{
// TODO: add support for multi-match weeks
if (previousMatchesByGameweek.ContainsKey(history.Round))
{
continue;
}
Fixture fixture = fixtures.Single(f => f.Id == history.FixtureId);
PreviousMatch gameweek = BuildPreviousMatch(history, fixture);
previousMatchesByGameweek.Add(history.Round, gameweek);
}
PreviousMatch gameweekNull = BuildPreviousMatch(null, null);
foreach (ElementHistory history in elementResponse.History)
{
TrainingDataRow row = new TrainingDataRow();
row.Season2017 = season2017;
row.Season2018 = season2018;
row.Season2019 = season2019;
row.PreviousGameweeks = new PreviousMatch[numPreviousGameweeks];
int previousRound = history.Round - 1;
for (int round = 0; round < numPreviousGameweeks; ++round)
{
if (previousMatchesByGameweek.ContainsKey(previousRound))
{
row.PreviousGameweeks[round] = previousMatchesByGameweek[previousRound];
}
else
{
row.PreviousGameweeks[round] = gameweekNull;
}
--previousRound;
}
Fixture fixture = fixtures.Single(f => f.Id == history.FixtureId);
row.AtHome = history.WasHome ? 1 : 0;
if (history.WasHome)
{
row.Difficulty = fixture.HomeTeamDifficulty;
}
else
{
row.Difficulty = fixture.AwayTeamDifficulty;
}
row.Value = history.Value;
row.TotalPoints = history.TotalPoints;
string seasonsData = $"{row.Season2017},{row.Season2018},{row.Season2019}";
var previousGameweeksBuilder = new StringBuilder();
for (int round = 0; round < numPreviousGameweeks; ++round)
{
previousGameweeksBuilder.Append(row.PreviousGameweeks[round]);
if (round < (numPreviousGameweeks - 1))
{
previousGameweeksBuilder.Append(",");
}
}
string gameweeksData = previousGameweeksBuilder.ToString();
string otherData = $"{element.Id},{element.Team},{element.ElementType},{element.SelectedByPercent:F1},{history.TransfersIn:F1},{history.TransfersOut:F1},{row.Difficulty},{row.AtHome},{row.Value:F1},{row.TotalPoints:F1}";
writer.WriteLine($"{seasonsData},{gameweeksData},{otherData}");
}
}
}
}