public double GetAveAwayScoreLast5AwayGames(Team?team, DateTime?date, PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
if (team == null || date == null)
{
return(0);
}
return(AllFixturesByAwayTeam[team].Where(x => x.FixtureDate <= date)
.Take(5)
.Select(x => x.AwayScore)
.Average());
}
public double GetPredictedDelta(Team?homeTeam, Team?awayTeam, DateTime?date, PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
var aveHomeScoreLast5HomeResults = GetAveHomeScoreLast5HomeGames(homeTeam, date, context);
var aveAwayScoreLast5AwayResults = GetAveAwayScoreLast5AwayGames(awayTeam, date, context);
var deltaLast5HomeResults = GetAveDeltaLast5HomeGames(homeTeam, date, context);
var deltaLast5AwayResults = GetAveDeltaLast5AwayGames(awayTeam, date, context);
var sameFixturePreviousResult = GetSameFixturePreviousResult(homeTeam, awayTeam, date, context);
return((aveHomeScoreLast5HomeResults + deltaLast5HomeResults
- aveAwayScoreLast5AwayResults + deltaLast5AwayResults
+ sameFixturePreviousResult) / .5);
}
public IEnumerable <Fixture> GetFixtures(PredictionAlgoContext context, DateTime seasonStartDate, DateTime seasonEndDate)
{
var reqFixtures = context.Fixtures.Where(x => x.FixtureDate > seasonStartDate)
.Where(x => x.FixtureDate < seasonEndDate)
.OrderBy(x => x.FixtureDate);
foreach (var fixture in reqFixtures)
{
fixture.PredictionOutcome = fixture.PredictedResult == fixture.Result
? PredictionOutcome.Success
: PredictionOutcome.Fail;
}
return(reqFixtures);
}
public void Setup()
{
var testDataPath = Assembly.GetCallingAssembly().CodeBase;
testDataPath = testDataPath.Replace(".Tests/bin/Debug/nunit.framework.DLL",
"\\bin\\TestData\\2016.10.25_HCapCoupon - Paddy Power.html");
_uriHCapCouponFake = new Uri(testDataPath).LocalPath;
_fakeWebscraper = new WebScraper();
_matchBettingDataList = _fakeWebscraper.GetMatchBettingData(_fakeWebscraper.GetSpreadsAndOdds(_uriHCapCouponFake));
_predictedData = new PredictionComparisonData();
_predictionComparisons = _predictedData.GetPredictionComparisons(_matchBettingDataList);
_context = new PredictionAlgoContext();
_fixtureData = new FixtureData();
}
public IEnumerable <FixtureAndBettingData> GetFixtureBettingDatas(PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
var fixturesWithBettingData = new List <FixtureAndBettingData>();
var fixtures = context.Fixtures.Where(x => x.FixtureDate > new DateTime(2016, 07, 30));
var bettingData = context.MatchBettingDatas;
foreach (var fixture in fixtures)
{
foreach (var betData in bettingData)
{
if (fixture.FixtureReference == betData.FixtureReference)
{
fixturesWithBettingData.Add(new FixtureAndBettingData(fixture, betData));
}
}
}
return(fixturesWithBettingData);
}
private static IDictionary <Team?, ICollection <Fixture> > GetHomeTeamResults(PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
var teamResults = new Dictionary <Team?, ICollection <Fixture> >(context.Fixtures.Count() / Teams.Pro12Teams.Count());
foreach (var fixture in context.Fixtures)
{
if (fixture.HomeTeam != null && teamResults.ContainsKey(fixture.HomeTeam))
{
teamResults[fixture.HomeTeam].Add(fixture);
}
else
{
if (fixture.HomeTeam != null)
{
teamResults.Add(fixture.HomeTeam, new List <Fixture> {
fixture
});
}
}
}
return(teamResults);
}
public ResultStatistics GetPredictedResult(Team?homeTeam, Team?awayTeam, DateTime?date, PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
var predictedDelta = GetPredictedDelta(homeTeam, awayTeam, date, context);
return(new ResultStatistics
{
HomeTeam = homeTeam,
AwayTeam = awayTeam,
Date = date,
AveHomeScoreLast5HomeGames = GetAveHomeScoreLast5HomeGames(homeTeam, date, context),
AveDeltaLast5HomeGames = GetAveDeltaLast5HomeGames(homeTeam, date, context),
AveAwayScoreLast5AwayGames = GetAveAwayScoreLast5AwayGames(awayTeam, date, context),
AveDeltaLast5AwayGames = GetAveDeltaLast5AwayGames(awayTeam, date, context),
SameFixturePreviousResult = GetSameFixturePreviousResult(homeTeam, awayTeam, date, context),
PredictedScoreDelta = predictedDelta
});
}
public double GetSameFixturePreviousResult(Team?homeTeam, Team?awayTeam, DateTime?date, PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
if (homeTeam == null || awayTeam == null || date == null)
{
return(0);
}
var lastHomeResultBtwnTeams = AllFixturesByHomeTeam[homeTeam].Where(x => (x.AwayTeam == awayTeam &&
x.FixtureDate <= date))
.Take(1)
.Select(x => x.ScoreDelta);
return(lastHomeResultBtwnTeams.ElementAt(0));
}
public ICollection <Fixture> GetFixturesAndResults(string url)
{
var fixturesResultList = new List <Fixture>(1030);
var web = new HtmlWeb();
var page = web.Load(url);
var nodes = page.DocumentNode.SelectNodes(FixtureXpath);
var innerTexts = nodes.Select(x => x.InnerText).ToList();
var fixtureDataList = innerTexts.SelectMany(s => s.Split('\n', '\t'))
.Where(s => !string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(s)).ToList();
var predictedResult = new PredictedResult();
var context = new PredictionAlgoContext();
for (var v = 0; v < fixtureDataList.Count; v++)
{
if (!fixtureDataList[v].Contains(Round))
{
continue;
}
if (fixtureDataList[v + 1].Contains(Round))
{
continue;
}
Team homeTeam, awayTeam;
DateTime fixtureDate;
int homeScore, awayScore;
if (CheckDayOfWeek(fixtureDataList[v + 1]))
{
fixtureDate = GetPro12Date(fixtureDataList[v + 2]);
if (fixtureDate > DateTime.Now)
{
continue;
}
homeTeam = (Team)Enum.Parse(typeof(Team), StandardiseTeamName(fixtureDataList[v + 4]));
awayTeam = (Team)Enum.Parse(typeof(Team), StandardiseTeamName(fixtureDataList[v + 6]));
homeScore = GetScores(fixtureDataList[v + 5], 0);
awayScore = GetScores(fixtureDataList[v + 5], 1);
}
else
{
fixtureDate = GetPro12Date(fixtureDataList[v + 1]);
if (fixtureDate > DateTime.Now)
{
continue;
}
if (fixtureDataList[v + 2].Length <= 5)
{
homeTeam = (Team)Enum.Parse(typeof(Team), StandardiseTeamName(fixtureDataList[v + 3]));
awayTeam = (Team)Enum.Parse(typeof(Team), StandardiseTeamName(fixtureDataList[v + 5]));
homeScore = GetScores(fixtureDataList[v + 4], 0);
awayScore = GetScores(fixtureDataList[v + 4], 1);
}
else
{
homeTeam = (Team)Enum.Parse(typeof(Team), StandardiseTeamName(fixtureDataList[v + 2]));
awayTeam = (Team)Enum.Parse(typeof(Team), StandardiseTeamName(fixtureDataList[v + 4]));
homeScore = GetScores(fixtureDataList[v + 3], 0);
awayScore = GetScores(fixtureDataList[v + 3], 1);
}
}
var predictedDelta = predictedResult.GetPredictedResult(homeTeam, awayTeam, fixtureDate, context);
var predictedFixtureResult = predictedDelta.PredictedScoreDelta < 0 ? Result.HomeLoss : Result.HomeWin;
var scoreDelta = homeScore - awayScore;
var actualResult = scoreDelta < 0
? Result.HomeLoss
: scoreDelta == 0 ? Result.Draw : Result.HomeWin;
var predictionOutcome = actualResult == predictedFixtureResult
? PredictionOutcome.Success
: PredictionOutcome.Fail;
var fixture = new Fixture
{
FixtureDate = fixtureDate,
HomeTeam = homeTeam,
HomeScore = homeScore,
AwayTeam = awayTeam,
AwayScore = awayScore,
ScoreDelta = scoreDelta,
PredictedDelta = predictedDelta.PredictedScoreDelta,
PredictedResult = predictedFixtureResult,
PredictionOutcome = predictionOutcome,
Result = actualResult,
Competition = Competition.Pro12,
FixtureReference = GetFixtureReference(homeTeam, fixtureDate)
};
fixturesResultList.Add(fixture);
}
return(fixturesResultList);
}
public IEnumerable <Fixture> GetSeasonResults(PredictionAlgoContext context)
{
return(new FixturesForSeason().GetFixtures(context, _seasonStartDate, _seasonEndDate));
}
