private void SetWD(Model m, double[] withdrawals)
{
double essentialWD = Globals.Singleton().EssentialsPercent / 100.0 * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * Market.NormativeStepWD(m);
int nSmallishWD = 0;
foreach (var w in withdrawals)
{
if (w < essentialWD)
nSmallishWD++;
}
this.InsufficientWdRrate = (double)nSmallishWD * 100.0 / (double)withdrawals.Length;
double[] binCounts = new double[Globals.Singleton().WDBins];
for (int i = 0; i < binCounts.Length; i++)
binCounts[i] = 0.0;
this.WithdrawalAver = withdrawals.Average();
this.WithdrawalMax = withdrawals.Max();
this.WithdrawalMin = withdrawals.Min();
double count = 0;
double norm = Globals.Singleton().StartSum * Market.NormativeStepWD(m);
foreach (double wd in withdrawals)
{
int ind = Globals.Singleton().Quantile(wd / norm);
binCounts[ind] = binCounts[ind] + 1.0;
count = count + 1.0;
}
this.WDistrib = new double[Globals.Singleton().WDBins];
for (int i = 0; i < Globals.Singleton().WDBins; i++)
WDistrib[i] = binCounts[i] / count;
}
public SingleRunResult(string country, Model m,
double trailingAmount, double[] withdrawals)
{
this.Country = country;
this.TrailingAmount = trailingAmount;
SetWD(m, withdrawals);
}
public SingleRunResult(string country, Model m,
double trailingAmount, double[] withdrawals1, double[] withdrawals2)
{
this.Country = country;
this.TrailingAmount = trailingAmount;
int len = withdrawals1.Length;
if (len != withdrawals2.Length)
throw new Exception("Wrong lens");
double[] withdrawals = new double[len];
for (int i = 0; i < len; i++)
withdrawals[i] = withdrawals1[i] + withdrawals2[i];
SetWD(m, withdrawals);
}
public static Model SweepModel(Model mp, SweepParameters sw, Country c)
{
Model m = new Model(mp.Strategy, mp.StartEq, mp.StartBo, mp.YearlyWithdrawal, mp.RebalanceEvery, c.Filename);
if (sw.Strategy >= 0)
m.Strategy = sw.Strategy;
if (sw.Equity >= 0)
m.StartEq = sw.Equity;
if (sw.Bonds >= 0)
m.StartBo = sw.Bonds;
if (sw.WithdrawalRate >= 0)
m.YearlyWithdrawal = sw.WithdrawalRate;
if (sw.WorldShare >= 0)
m.WorldShare = sw.WorldShare;
return m;
}
public static void WriteResult(StreamWriter sw, Model mm, ModelResult mr, object printlock)
{
lock (printlock)
{
Utils.WriteResult(sw,
mm.CountryName,
mm.Strategy,
mm.StartEq, mm.StartBo,
mm.YearlyWithdrawal,
mm.RebalanceEvery,
mm.WorldShare,
mr.trailAverage, mr.trailMax, mr.trailMin,
mr.withdrawalAverage, mr.withdrawalMax, mr.withdrawalMin,
mr.WDistrib,
mr.productivity,
mr.trailSuccessRate, mr.withdrawalSuccessRate, mr.overallSuccessRate);
}
}
public ModelResult(Model m, List<SingleRunResult> results)
{
this.model = m;
this.WDistrib = new double[Globals.Singleton().WDBins];
for (int i = 0; i < Globals.Singleton().WDBins; i++)
{
this.WDistrib[i] = 0;
foreach (var r in results)
this.WDistrib[i] = this.WDistrib[i] + r.WDistrib[i];
this.WDistrib[i] /= results.Count;
}
int failures = 0, successes = 0;
trailSuccessRate = Market.CheckTrailingAmount(results, ref failures, ref successes);
withdrawalSuccessRate = Market.CheckWithdrawals(results, ref failures, ref successes);
trailAverage = withdrawalAverage = 0;
trailMin = withdrawalMin = double.MaxValue;
trailMax = withdrawalMax = double.MinValue;
overallSuccessRate = Market.CheckOverall(results, ref failures, ref successes);
int count = 0;
foreach (var sr in results)
{
trailAverage += sr.TrailingAmount;
trailMax = Math.Max(trailMax, sr.TrailingAmount);
trailMin = Math.Min(trailMin, sr.TrailingAmount);
withdrawalAverage += sr.WithdrawalAver;
withdrawalMax = Math.Max(withdrawalMax, sr.WithdrawalMax);
withdrawalMin = Math.Min(withdrawalMin, sr.WithdrawalMin);
count++;
}
this.trailAverage /= (count * 1000000.0);
this.trailMax = trailMax / 1000000.0;
this.trailMin = trailMin / 1000000.0;
this.withdrawalAverage /= count;
this.withdrawalAverage *= (Utils.StepsInYear / 1000.0);
this.withdrawalMax *= (Utils.StepsInYear / 1000.0);
this.withdrawalMin *= (Utils.StepsInYear / 1000.0);
this.productivity = this.withdrawalAverage * 1000.0 / Globals.Singleton().StartSum * 100.0;
}
public static void RunSingleStep(
int c, int r, Model m, double initialWithdrawal,
ref double eq, ref double bo, ref double bi,
Distro distroEq, Distro distroBo, Distro distroBi,
ref double[] prior, ref double curWithdrawal,
ref List<double> withdrawals)
{
// Market play
eq *= (1.0 + distroEq.Play());
bo *= (1.0 + distroBo.Play());
bi *= (1.0 + distroBi.Play());
// Calculate desired withdrawal on this step
switch(m.Strategy)
{
case 1:
curWithdrawal = initialWithdrawal;
break;
case 2:
curWithdrawal = (eq + bo + bi) * NormativeStepWD(m);
break;
case 3:
if (c >= (int)(3 * Utils.StepsInYear) &&
c % ((int)Utils.StepsInYear) == 0)
curWithdrawal = prior.Average() * NormativeStepWD(m);
break;
default:
throw new Exception("Unknown strategy");
}
// Calculate actual total step withdrawal
double actualWithdrawal = Math.Min(eq + bo + bi, curWithdrawal);
double allocated = 0;
if (bi > 0)
{
double d = Math.Min(bi, actualWithdrawal * (bi / (eq + bo + bi)));
allocated += d;
bi -= d;
}
if (bo > 0)
{
double d = Math.Min(bo, actualWithdrawal * (bo / (eq + bo + bi)));
allocated += d;
bo -= d;
}
if (eq > 0)
{
double d = Math.Min(eq, actualWithdrawal * (eq / (eq + bo + bi)));
allocated += d;
eq -= d;
}
if (allocated < actualWithdrawal)
{
double d = Math.Min(bi, actualWithdrawal - allocated);
bi -= d;
allocated += d;
d = Math.Min(bo, actualWithdrawal - allocated);
bo -= d;
allocated += d;
d = Math.Min(eq, actualWithdrawal - allocated);
eq -= d;
allocated += d;
}
withdrawals.Add(actualWithdrawal);
double total = eq + bo + bi;
// Rebalance evert X steps, if requested
if (m.RebalanceEvery > 0 && r % m.RebalanceEvery == 0)
{
eq = total * m.StartEq / 100.0;
bo = total * m.StartBo / 100.0;
bi = total - eq - bo;
}
// Remember priors
for (int y = 1; y < prior.Length; y++)
{
prior[y - 1] = prior[y];
}
prior[prior.Length - 1] = total;
}
public static List<SingleRunResult> RunDoublePortfolioExperiment(
Model m,
double share2,
Distro distroEq1, Distro distroBo1, Distro distroBi1,
Distro distroEq2, Distro distroBo2, Distro distroBi2)
{
int rebalanceEvery = m.RebalanceEvery;
double initWD = Globals.Singleton().StartSum * NormativeStepWD(m);
double initWD1 = initWD * (1.0 - share2);
double initWD2 = initWD * (share2);
double curWD1 = initWD1;
double curWD2 = initWD2;
double[] prior1 = new double[3 * (int)Utils.StepsInYear];
double[] prior2 = new double[3 * (int)Utils.StepsInYear];
List<SingleRunResult> results = new List<SingleRunResult>();
for (int r = 0; r < Globals.Singleton().Repeats; r++)
{
double eq1 = (1.0 - share2) * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * m.StartEq / 100;
double bo1 = (1.0 - share2) * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * m.StartBo / 100;
double bi1 = (1.0 - share2) * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * (100 - m.StartEq - m.StartBo) / 100;
if (eq1 < 0 || bo1 < 0 || bi1 < 0)
throw new Exception("Bad parameters");
double eq2 = share2 * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * m.StartEq / 100;
double bo2 = share2 * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * m.StartBo / 100;
double bi2 = share2 * Globals.Singleton().StartSum * (100 - m.StartEq - m.StartBo) / 100;
if (eq2 < 0 || bo2 < 0 || bi2 < 0)
throw new Exception("Bad parameters");
//List<double> withdrawals = new List<double>();
List<double> withdrawals1 = new List<double>();
List<double> withdrawals2 = new List<double>();
double curWd1 = initWD1;
double curWd2 = initWD2;
for (int c = 0; c < Globals.Singleton().Cycles; c++)
{
RunSingleStep(c, r, m, initWD1,
ref eq1, ref bo1, ref bi1,
distroEq1, distroBo1, distroBi1,
ref prior1, ref curWD1, ref withdrawals1);
RunSingleStep(c, r, m, initWD2,
ref eq2, ref bo2, ref bi2,
distroEq2, distroBo2, distroBi2,
ref prior2, ref curWD2, ref withdrawals2);
//TODO: here comes portfolio parts re balancing
}
results.Add(
new SingleRunResult(
m.CountryName, m,
eq1 + bo1 + bi1 + eq2 + bo2 + bi2,
withdrawals1.ToArray(),
withdrawals2.ToArray()));
}
return results;
}
public static double NormativeStepWD(Model m)
{
return m.YearlyWithdrawal / 100.0 / Utils.StepsInYear;
}
public static List<SingleRunResult> RunSinglePortfolioExperiment(
Model m,
Distro distroEq, Distro distroBo, Distro distroBi)
{
int rebalanceEvery = m.RebalanceEvery;
double initWD = Globals.Singleton().StartSum * NormativeStepWD(m);
double[] prior = new double[3 * (int)Utils.StepsInYear];
List<SingleRunResult> singleRunResults = new List<SingleRunResult>();
for (int r = 0; r < Globals.Singleton().Repeats; r++)
{
double eq = Globals.Singleton().StartSum * m.StartEq / 100;
double bo = Globals.Singleton().StartSum * m.StartBo / 100;
double bi = Globals.Singleton().StartSum * (100 - m.StartEq - m.StartBo) / 100;
if (eq < 0 || bo < 0 || bi < 0)
throw new Exception("Bad parameters");
List<double> withdrawals = new List<double>();
double curWd = initWD;
for (int c = 0; c < Globals.Singleton().Cycles; c++)
{
// Market play
RunSingleStep(c, r, m, initWD,
ref eq, ref bo, ref bi,
distroEq, distroBo, distroBi,
ref prior, ref curWd, ref withdrawals);
}
singleRunResults.Add(new SingleRunResult("", m, eq + bo + bi, withdrawals.ToArray()));
}
return singleRunResults;
}