// TODO: check volatilitymodel https://github.com/QuantConnect/Lean/blob/master/Common/Securities/RelativeStandardDeviationVolatilityModel.cs
public override void Initialize()
{
SetStartDate(2016, 1, 1);
SetEndDate(2016, 4, 1);
SetCash(3000);
SetBrokerageMessageHandler(new CustomBrokerageMessageHandler(this));
var allInputs = new List <double[]>();
var allOutputs = new List <int>();
var allWeights = new List <double>();
foreach (var symbol in Symbols)
{
AddForex(symbol, _dataResolution, Market.Oanda, false, 1m);
Securities[symbol].TransactionModel = new OandaTransactionModel();
//Securities[symbol].SlippageModel = new ConstantSlippageModel(0m);
SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.OandaBrokerage);
/************ TRAINING ************/
var trainingResolution = Resolution.Minute;
/*var slowT = HMA(symbol, 28, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
* var slowSlopeT = new InstantTrend(symbol, 5).Of(slowT);
* var returnT = LOGR(symbol, 3, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
* var returnSlopeT = LSMA(symbol, 5, trainingResolution).Of(returnT);*/
var consolidatorT = new QuoteBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15));
var stochT = new Stochastic(symbol, 14, 3, 3);
var stochTMA = new HullMovingAverage(symbol, 3).Of(stochT);
var emaT = new ExponentialMovingAverage(symbol, 40);
RegisterIndicator(symbol, stochT, consolidatorT);
RegisterIndicator(symbol, emaT, consolidatorT);
SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, consolidatorT);
var historyT = History <QuoteBar>(symbol, TimeSpan.FromDays(500), trainingResolution);
var quoteBars = new List <QuoteBar>();
var stochs = new List <double>();
var rollingStochs = new RollingWindow <double>(1000);
var stochsMA = new List <double>();
var emas = new List <double>();
var stochCount = new List <double>();
var stochAverage = new List <double>();
//consolidatorT.DataConsolidated += (sender, args) => quoteBars.Add(args);
stochTMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
{
if (!stochTMA.IsReady || !emaT.IsReady)
{
return;
}
quoteBars.Add((QuoteBar)consolidatorT.Consolidated);
stochs.Add((double)stochT.Current.Value);
rollingStochs.Add((double)args.Value);
stochsMA.Add((double)args.Value);
emas.Add((double)emaT.Current.Value);
var filtered = rollingStochs.TakeWhile((s) => args.Value > 50 ? s > 50 : args.Value < 50 ? s < 50 : false);
stochCount.Add(filtered.Count());
try
{
stochAverage.Add(filtered.Average());
}
catch (Exception ex)
{
stochAverage.Add(0);
}
};
foreach (var bar in historyT)
{
consolidatorT.Update(bar);
}
Console.WriteLine("{0} {1} {2} {3} {4}", quoteBars.Count, stochs.Count, stochCount.Count, stochAverage.Count, emas.Count);
var inputs = new List <double[]>();
var outputs = new List <int>();
var weights = new List <double>();
for (var i = 1; i < quoteBars.Count; i++)
{
var longTarget = quoteBars[i].Close + (30m / 10000m);
var longStop = quoteBars[i].Close - (10m / 10000m);
var shortTarget = quoteBars[i].Close - (30m / 10000m);
var shortStop = quoteBars[i].Close + (10m / 10000m);
var longSetup = stochs[i] >= 35 && stochsMA[i] > stochsMA[i - 1] && (double)quoteBars[i].Close > emas[i];
var shortSetup = stochs[i] <= 65 && stochs[i] > 0 && stochsMA[i] < stochsMA[i - 1] && (double)quoteBars[i].Close < emas[i];
if (!longSetup && !shortSetup)
{
continue;
}
for (var j = i + 1; j < quoteBars.Count; j++)
{
var current = quoteBars[j];
if (current.High >= longTarget && current.Low > longStop && longSetup)
{
inputs.Add(new double[] { stochAverage[i], stochCount[i], (double)quoteBars[i].Close / emas[i] });
outputs.Add(1);
var profit = current.High - quoteBars[i].Close;
/*for (var k = j + 1; k < quoteBars.Count; k++)
* {
*
* }*/
weights.Add((double)(1m - (50m / 10000m) / profit));
//i = j;
break;
}
else if (current.Low <= shortTarget && current.High < shortStop && shortSetup)
{
inputs.Add(new double[] { stochAverage[i], stochCount[i], (double)quoteBars[i].Close / emas[i] });
outputs.Add(0);
var profit = quoteBars[i].Close - current.Low;
/*for (var k = j + 1; k < quoteBars.Count; k++)
* {
*
* }*/
weights.Add((double)(1m - (50m / 10000m) / profit));
//i = j;
break;
}
else if ((current.Low <= longStop && longSetup) || (current.High >= shortStop && shortSetup))
{
//inputs.Add(new double[] { stochAverage[i] / stochs[i], stochCount[i], stochAverage[i] });
//outputs.Add(2);
//i = j;
break;
}
/*else if (j - i > 4 * 8)
* {
* inputs.Add(new double[] { stochs[i], stochCount[i], stochAverage[i] });
* outputs.Add(0);
* //i = j;
* break;
* }*/
}
}
allInputs.AddRange(inputs);
allOutputs.AddRange(outputs);
allWeights.AddRange(weights);
for (var i = 0; i < inputs.Count; i++)
{
//Console.WriteLine("Input: " + inputs[i][0] + " " + inputs[i][1] + " " + inputs[i][2] + " Output: " + outputs[i]);
}
var none = outputs.Where((o) => o == 2).Count();
var sell = outputs.Where((o) => o == 0).Count();
var buy = outputs.Where((o) => o == 1).Count();
Console.WriteLine("Total: {0} None: {1} Short: {2} Long: {3}", outputs.Count, none, sell, buy);
/************ HMA ************/
/*var slow = HMA(symbol, 28, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
* var slowSlope = new InstantTrend(symbol, 5).Of(slow);
* var logReturns = LOGR(symbol, 3, trainingResolution, Field.Close);
* var returnSlope = LSMA(symbol, 5, trainingResolution).Of(logReturns);*/
var consolidator = new QuoteBarConsolidator(TimeSpan.FromMinutes(15));
var stoch = new Stochastic(symbol, 14, 3, 3);
var stochMA = new HullMovingAverage(symbol, 2).Of(stoch);
var ema = new ExponentialMovingAverage(symbol, 40);
var rolling = new RollingWindow <double>(1000);
RegisterIndicator(symbol, stoch, consolidator);
RegisterIndicator(symbol, ema, consolidator);
SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, consolidator);
_stoch[symbol] = stoch;
_ema[symbol] = ema;
stochMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
{
rolling.Add((double)args.Value);
if (Securities[symbol].Price > 0)
{
//Plot("Plotter", "Price", Securities["EURUSD"].Price);
Plot("Indicator", "STO", rolling[0]);
}
};
var std = ATR(symbol, 100, MovingAverageType.DoubleExponential, _dataResolution);
var history = History <QuoteBar>(symbol, TimeSpan.FromDays(20), trainingResolution);
foreach (var bar in history)
{
//slow.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close);
//logReturns.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close);
std.Update(bar);
consolidator.Update(bar);
}
var signal = new SVMSignal(consolidator, stoch, stochMA, rolling, ema, Portfolio[symbol], this);
signal.TrainSVM(inputs, outputs, weights);
//signal.TrainNN(inputs, outputs, weights);
Securities[symbol].VolatilityModel = new AverageTrueRangeVolatilityModel(std);
_tradingAssets.Add(symbol,
new TradingAsset(Securities[symbol],
new OneShotTrigger(signal),
new ProfitTargetSignalExit(null, _targetProfitLoss),
_maximumTradeRisk,
_maximumTradeSize,
this
));
}
foreach (var symbol in Symbols)
{
//_tradingAssets[symbol].Retrain(allInputs, allOutputs, allWeights);
}
//AddData<DailyFx>("DFX", Resolution.Second, TimeZones.Utc);
Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday),
TimeRules.At(7, 0, TimeZones.London), () =>
{
var tradeableDay = TradingCalendar.GetTradingDay().BusinessDay;
if (tradeableDay)
{
foreach (var s in Symbols)
{
_tradingAssets[s].IsTradable = true;
}
}
});
Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday),
TimeRules.At(18, 0, TimeZones.London), () =>
{
foreach (var s in Symbols)
{
_tradingAssets[s].IsTradable = false;
}
});
Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Friday),
TimeRules.BeforeMarketClose(Symbols.First(), 60), () =>
{
foreach (var s in Symbols)
{
_tradingAssets[s].Liquidate();
}
});
Chart plotter = new Chart("Plotter");
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Price", SeriesType.Line, 0));
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("EMA", SeriesType.Line, 0));
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Buy", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Green, ScatterMarkerSymbol.Triangle));
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Sell", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Red, ScatterMarkerSymbol.TriangleDown));
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Stopped", SeriesType.Scatter, "", Color.Yellow, ScatterMarkerSymbol.Diamond));
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Prediction", SeriesType.Bar, 1));
plotter.AddSeries(new Series("Probability", SeriesType.Bar, 2));
AddChart(plotter);
Chart indicator = new Chart("Indicator");
indicator.AddSeries(new Series("STO", SeriesType.Line, 0));
AddChart(indicator);
Chart prediction = new Chart("Prediction");
prediction.AddSeries(new Series("Pred", SeriesType.Bar, 0));
AddChart(prediction);
Chart probability = new Chart("Probability");
probability.AddSeries(new Series("Prob", SeriesType.Bar, 0));
AddChart(probability);
}
public SVMSignal(QuoteBarConsolidator consolidator, Stochastic stoch, HullMovingAverage stochMA, RollingWindow <double> rolling, ExponentialMovingAverage ema, SecurityHolding securityHolding, SVMStrategy qcAlgorithm)
{
_consolidator = consolidator;
_stoch = stoch;
_StochMA = stochMA;
_rolling = rolling;
_ema = ema;
_securityHolding = securityHolding;
_qcAlgorithm = qcAlgorithm;
stochMA.Updated += (sender, args) =>
{
try
{
var filtered = _rolling.TakeWhile((s) => args.Value > 50 ? s > 50 : args.Value < 50 ? s < 50 : false);
var currentQuote = (QuoteBar)_consolidator.Consolidated;
//Console.WriteLine("{0}, {1}, {2}", filtered.Count(), _rolling.Count(), _stoch.Current.Value);
var inputs = new double[] { filtered.Average(), filtered.Count(), (double)(currentQuote.Close / _ema.Current.Value) };
_inputs.Add(inputs);
inputs = Accord.Statistics.Tools.ZScores(_inputs.ToArray()).Last();
_inputs.RemoveAt(_inputs.Count - 1);
if (_pcaTransform)
{
inputs = _pca.Transform(inputs);
}
var prediction = _svm.Decide(inputs);
var probability = _svm.Probability(inputs);
var logLikelihood = _svm.LogLikelihood(inputs);
_qcAlgorithm.PlotSignal((QuoteBar)_consolidator.Consolidated, prediction == 0 ? -1 : prediction, logLikelihood);
/*var dbnPredictions = _dbn.Compute(inputs);
* var shortPrediction = dbnPredictions.First();
* var longPrediction = dbnPredictions.Last();*/
if (_securityHolding.Invested && Signal == SignalType.Long && prediction == 0)
{
//Console.WriteLine("Long Exit Time: {0} Prediction: {1} Probability: {2}", args.EndTime, prediction, probability);
}
else if (_securityHolding.Invested && Signal == SignalType.Short && prediction == 1)
{
//Console.WriteLine("Short Exit Time: {0} Prediction: {1} Probability: {2}", args.EndTime, prediction, probability);
}
if (prediction != 2)
{
//Console.WriteLine("Time: {0} Prediction: {1} Probability: {2}, Log Likelihood: {3} Score: {4}", args.EndTime, prediction, probability, logLikelihood);
}
// EURUSD 0.9999
var probabilityFilter = logLikelihood >= 9;//probability >= 0.999999;// && _previousPredictions.IsReady && _previousPredictions.All((p) => p == prediction);
var aboveEma = currentQuote.Close > _ema.Current.Value;
var belowEma = currentQuote.Close < _ema.Current.Value;
var longExit = Signal == SignalType.Long && belowEma; //prediction == 0;
var shortExit = Signal == SignalType.Short && aboveEma; //prediction == 1;
if (!_securityHolding.Invested && probabilityFilter && prediction == 1 && _rolling[0] > rolling[1] && aboveEma)
{
Signal = Signal != SignalType.PendingLong ? SignalType.PendingLong : SignalType.Long;
if (_debug)
{
Console.WriteLine("Long Signal: {0} Probability: {1} Log Likelihood: {2}", Signal, probability, logLikelihood);
Console.WriteLine("Long STO: {0} STO MA: {1} Count: {2}", _stoch.Current.Value, args.Value, filtered.Count());
Console.WriteLine("Long Time: {0} Price: {1}", _consolidator.Consolidated.Time, _consolidator.Consolidated.Value);
}
}
else if (!_securityHolding.Invested && probabilityFilter && prediction == 0 && _rolling[0] < rolling[1] && belowEma)
{
Signal = Signal != SignalType.PendingShort ? SignalType.PendingShort : SignalType.Short;
if (_debug)
{
Console.WriteLine("Short Signal: {0} Probability: {1} Log Likelihood: {2}", Signal, probability, logLikelihood);
Console.WriteLine("Short STO: {0} STO MA: {1} Count: {2}", _stoch.Current.Value, args.Value, filtered.Count());
Console.WriteLine("Short Time: {0} Price: {1}", _consolidator.Consolidated.Time, _consolidator.Consolidated.Value);
}
}
else if ((_securityHolding.Invested && longExit) || (_securityHolding.Invested && shortExit))
{
if (_debug)
{
Console.WriteLine("Exit Signal: {0} Probability: {1} Log Likelihood: {2}", Signal, probability, logLikelihood);
Console.WriteLine("Exit STO: {0} STO MA: {1} Count: {2}", _stoch.Current.Value, args.Value, filtered.Count());
Console.WriteLine("Exit Time: {0} Price: {1}", _consolidator.Consolidated.Time, _consolidator.Consolidated.Value);
}
Signal = SignalType.Exit;
}
else if (!_securityHolding.Invested && (Signal == SignalType.PendingLong || Signal == SignalType.PendingShort))
{
Signal = SignalType.NoSignal;
}
else
{
//Signal = SignalType.NoSignal;
}
}
catch (Exception ex)
{
Console.WriteLine(ex.Message);
Signal = SignalType.NoSignal;
}
};
}