private static (decimal Swing, string Party) GenerateSwing(DateTime forecastDate, DateTime electionDay)
{
string party = new Random().Next() % 2 == 0 ? "Republican" : "Democratic";
decimal swing = Guassian.Next(0, ((decimal)(electionDay - forecastDate).Days / 90) + 1);
return(swing, party);
}
private static (decimal Result, decimal Weight) GetGuassian(Poll poll, string candidateName, DateTime date)
{
PollResult result = poll.Results.FirstOrDefault(c => c.Candidate == candidateName);
if (result != null)
{
decimal mean = result.Percent;
decimal stdDev = ((decimal)(date - poll.Date).Days / 60) + 1;
decimal pct = Guassian.Next(mean, stdDev);
int denominator = (date - poll.Date).Days;
if (denominator == 0)
{
denominator = 1;
}
var weight = (decimal)System.Math.Sqrt(1.0 / denominator);
return(pct * weight, weight);
}
return(0.0M, 0.0M);
}