public PlayerPredictions PlayerSimulator(GamePredictions game, Players player)
{
List <PlayerStats> fullStats = _getStatMethods.GetFullSeasonStatsWithPlayer(player);
List <FullSeason> fullSeason = _getStatMethods.GetFullSeasonList(player.Team);
PlayerPredictions stats = new PlayerPredictions();
return(stats);
}
public int GetLatestGameNoGamePredictions()
{
GamePredictions game = this._dbContext.GamePredictions.OrderByDescending(x => x.ID).FirstOrDefault();
if (game == null)
{
return(106);
}
return(game.GameNo);
}
public GamePredictions GameCalculator(GameModel Stats, GameModel HomeAverages, GameModel AwayAverages, GameModel HomeDeviation, GameModel AwayDeviation)
{
double paceofplay = PaceofPlayCalculator(Stats);
double home2PP = (Stats.HomeFGM - Stats.Home3PM) / (Stats.HomeFGA - Stats.Home3PA);
double away2PP = (Stats.AwayFGM - Stats.Away3PM) / (Stats.AwayFGA - Stats.Away3PA);
double home3PP = Stats.Home3PM / Stats.Home3PA;
double away3PP = Stats.Away3PM / Stats.Away3PA;
double homeFTP = Stats.HomeFTM / Stats.HomeFTA;
double awayFTP = Stats.AwayFTM / Stats.AwayFTA;
int Home3PA = DeviationApllication(Stats.Home3PA, HomeDeviation.Home3PA, HomeAverages.Home3PA);
int HomeTurnovers = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeTurnovers, HomeDeviation.HomeTurnovers, HomeAverages.HomeTurnovers);
int HomeOffensiveRebounds = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeOffensiveRebounds, HomeDeviation.HomeOffensiveRebounds, HomeAverages.HomeOffensiveRebounds);
int HomeFTA = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeFTA, HomeDeviation.HomeFTA, HomeAverages.HomeFTA);
int Home2PA = Convert.ToInt16(Math.Round(paceofplay / 2 - HomeFTA / 2.5 - HomeTurnovers * 0.7 - Home3PA + HomeOffensiveRebounds));
int Home2PM = DeviationApllication(Home2PA * home2PP, HomeDeviation.HomeFGM - HomeDeviation.Home3PM, HomeAverages.HomeFGM - HomeAverages.Home3PM);
int Away3PA = DeviationApllication(Stats.Away3PA, AwayDeviation.Away3PA, AwayAverages.Away3PA);
int AwayTurnovers = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwayTurnovers, AwayDeviation.AwayTurnovers, AwayAverages.AwayTurnovers);
int AwayOffensiveRebounds = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwayOffensiveRebounds, AwayDeviation.AwayOffensiveRebounds, AwayAverages.AwayOffensiveRebounds);
int AwayFTA = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwayFTA, AwayDeviation.AwayFTA, AwayAverages.AwayFTA);
int Away2PA = Convert.ToInt16(Math.Round(paceofplay / 2 - AwayFTA / 2.5 - AwayTurnovers * 0.7 - Away3PA + AwayOffensiveRebounds));
int Away2PM = DeviationApllication(Away2PA * away2PP, AwayDeviation.AwayFGM - AwayDeviation.Away3PM, AwayAverages.AwayFGM - AwayAverages.Away3PM);
GamePredictions game = new GamePredictions
{
HomeFGA = Home3PA + Home2PA,
Home3PA = Home3PA,
Home3PM = DeviationApllication(Home3PA * home3PP, HomeDeviation.Home3PA, HomeAverages.Home3PM),
HomeFTA = HomeFTA,
HomeFTM = DeviationApllication(HomeFTA * homeFTP, HomeDeviation.HomeFTM, HomeAverages.HomeFTM),
HomeAssists = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeAssists, HomeDeviation.HomeAssists, HomeAverages.HomeAssists),
HomeTurnovers = HomeTurnovers,
HomeOffensiveRebounds = HomeOffensiveRebounds,
HomeDefensiveRebounds = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeDefensiveRebounds, HomeDeviation.HomeDefensiveRebounds, HomeAverages.HomeDefensiveRebounds),
HomeBlocks = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeBlocks, HomeDeviation.HomeBlocks, HomeAverages.HomeBlocks),
HomeSteals = DeviationApllication(Stats.HomeSteals, HomeDeviation.HomeSteals, HomeAverages.HomeSteals),
AwayFGA = Away3PA + Away2PA,
Away3PA = Away3PA,
Away3PM = DeviationApllication(Away3PA * away3PP, AwayDeviation.Away3PA, AwayAverages.Away3PM),
AwayFTA = AwayFTA,
AwayFTM = DeviationApllication(AwayFTA * awayFTP, AwayDeviation.AwayFTM, AwayAverages.AwayFTM),
AwayAssists = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwayAssists, AwayDeviation.AwayAssists, AwayAverages.AwayAssists),
AwayTurnovers = AwayTurnovers,
AwayOffensiveRebounds = AwayOffensiveRebounds,
AwayDefensiveRebounds = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwayDefensiveRebounds, AwayDeviation.AwayDefensiveRebounds, AwayAverages.AwayDefensiveRebounds),
AwayBlocks = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwayBlocks, AwayDeviation.AwayBlocks, AwayAverages.AwayBlocks),
AwaySteals = DeviationApllication(Stats.AwaySteals, AwayDeviation.AwaySteals, AwayAverages.AwaySteals)
};
game.HomeFGM = game.Home3PM + Home2PM;
game.HomePoints = game.Home3PM * 3 + Home2PM * 2 + game.HomeFTM;
game.AwayFGM = game.Away3PM + Away2PM;
game.AwayPoints = game.Away3PM * 3 + Away2PM * 2 + game.AwayFTM;
return(game);
}
public void CoefficientOptimizerGame(int No)
{
int firstgames = 0;
int othergames = 0;
double Coefficient1, Coefficient2, Coefficient3, Coefficient4, Coefficient5, Coefficient6, Coefficient7;
CoEfficientOptimizer optimizer = new CoEfficientOptimizer();
Coefficient1 = Math.Floor((double)(No / 729));
Coefficient2 = Math.Floor((No - Coefficient1 * 729) / 81);
Coefficient3 = Math.Floor((No - Coefficient1 * 729 - Coefficient2 * 81) / 9);
Coefficient4 = Math.Floor(No - Coefficient1 * 729 - Coefficient2 * 81 - Coefficient3 * 9);
Coefficient1++;
Coefficient2++;
Coefficient3++;
Coefficient4++;
double total = Coefficient1 + Coefficient2 + Coefficient3 + Coefficient4;
Coefficient1 = total / Coefficient1;
Coefficient2 = total / Coefficient2;
Coefficient3 = total / Coefficient3;
Coefficient4 = total / Coefficient4;
Coefficient5 = Math.Floor((double)((No % 729) / 81));
Coefficient6 = Math.Floor((No % 729 - Coefficient5 * 81) / 9);
Coefficient7 = Math.Floor(No % 729 - Coefficient5 * 81 - Coefficient6 * 9);
Coefficient5++;
Coefficient6++;
Coefficient7++;
total = Coefficient5 + Coefficient6 + Coefficient7;
Coefficient5 = total / Coefficient5;
Coefficient6 = total / Coefficient6;
Coefficient7 = total / Coefficient7;
optimizer.Coefficient1 = Coefficient1;
optimizer.Coefficient2 = Coefficient2;
optimizer.Coefficient3 = Coefficient3;
optimizer.Coefficient4 = Coefficient4;
optimizer.Coefficient5 = Coefficient5;
optimizer.Coefficient6 = Coefficient6;
optimizer.Coefficient7 = Coefficient7;
for (int i = 750; i < 971; i++)
{
if (i == 707)
{
continue;
}
Team homeTeam = _getStatMethods.GetHomeTeam1920(i);
Team awayTeam = _getStatMethods.GetAwayTeam1920(i);
GamePredictions prediction = _simulator.FullMatchSimulator1920(homeTeam, awayTeam, i, Coefficient1, Coefficient2, Coefficient3, Coefficient4, Coefficient5, Coefficient6, Coefficient7);
FullSeason19_20 game = _getStatMethods.GetFullSeason1920(i);
if (prediction.FirstGame)
{
firstgames++;
optimizer.FirstHomePoints += Math.Abs(game.HomePoints - prediction.HomePoints) / game.HomePoints * 100;
optimizer.FirstHome3PA += Math.Abs(game.Home3PA - prediction.Home3PA) / game.Home3PA * 100;
optimizer.FirstHome3PM += Math.Abs(game.Home3PM - prediction.Home3PM) / game.Home3PM * 100;
optimizer.FirstHomeFGA += Math.Abs(game.HomeFGA - prediction.HomeFGA) / game.HomeFGA * 100;
optimizer.FirstHomeFGM += Math.Abs(game.HomeFGM - prediction.HomeFGM) / game.HomeFGM * 100;
optimizer.FirstHomeFTA += Math.Abs(game.HomeFTA - prediction.HomeFTA) / game.HomeFTA * 100;
optimizer.FirstHomeFTM += Math.Abs(game.HomeFTM - prediction.HomeFTM) / game.HomeFTM * 100;
optimizer.FirstAwayPoints += Math.Abs(game.AwayPoints - prediction.AwayPoints) / game.AwayPoints * 100;
optimizer.FirstAway3PA += Math.Abs(game.Away3PA - prediction.Away3PA) / game.Away3PA * 100;
optimizer.FirstAway3PM += Math.Abs(game.Away3PM - prediction.Away3PM) / game.Away3PM * 100;
optimizer.FirstAwayFGA += Math.Abs(game.AwayFGA - prediction.AwayFGA) / game.AwayFGA * 100;
optimizer.FirstAwayFGM += Math.Abs(game.AwayFGM - prediction.AwayFGM) / game.AwayFGM * 100;
optimizer.FirstAwayFTA += Math.Abs(game.AwayFTA - prediction.AwayFTA) / game.AwayFTA * 100;
optimizer.FirstAwayFTM += Math.Abs(game.AwayFTM - prediction.AwayFTM) / game.AwayFTM * 100;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomePoints += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomePoints);
optimizer.FirstTotalHome3PA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Home3PA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHome3PM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Home3PM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFGA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFGA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFGM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFGM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFTA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFTA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFTM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFTM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayPoints += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayPoints);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAway3PA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Away3PA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAway3PM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Away3PM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFGA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFGA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFGM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFGM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFTA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFTA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFTM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFTM);;
}
else
{
othergames++;
optimizer.HomePoints += Math.Abs(game.HomePoints - prediction.HomePoints) / game.HomePoints * 100;
optimizer.Home3PA += Math.Abs(game.Home3PA - prediction.Home3PA) / game.Home3PA * 100;
optimizer.Home3PM += Math.Abs(game.Home3PM - prediction.Home3PM) / game.Home3PM * 100;
optimizer.HomeFGA += Math.Abs(game.HomeFGA - prediction.HomeFGA) / game.HomeFGA * 100;
optimizer.HomeFGM += Math.Abs(game.HomeFGM - prediction.HomeFGM) / game.HomeFGM * 100;
optimizer.HomeFTA += Math.Abs(game.HomeFTA - prediction.HomeFTA) / game.HomeFTA * 100;
optimizer.HomeFTM += Math.Abs(game.HomeFTM - prediction.HomeFTM) / game.HomeFTM * 100;
optimizer.AwayPoints += Math.Abs(game.AwayPoints - prediction.AwayPoints) / game.AwayPoints * 100;
optimizer.Away3PA += Math.Abs(game.Away3PA - prediction.Away3PA) / game.Away3PA * 100;
optimizer.Away3PM += Math.Abs(game.Away3PM - prediction.Away3PM) / game.Away3PM * 100;
optimizer.AwayFGA += Math.Abs(game.AwayFGA - prediction.AwayFGA) / game.AwayFGA * 100;
optimizer.AwayFGM += Math.Abs(game.AwayFGM - prediction.AwayFGM) / game.AwayFGM * 100;
optimizer.AwayFTA += Math.Abs(game.AwayFTA - prediction.AwayFTA) / game.AwayFTA * 100;
optimizer.AwayFTM += Math.Abs(game.AwayFTM - prediction.AwayFTM) / game.AwayFTM * 100;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomePoints += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomePoints);
optimizer.FirstTotalHome3PA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Home3PA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHome3PM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Home3PM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFGA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFGA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFGM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFGM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFTA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFTA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalHomeFTM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.HomeFTM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayPoints += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayPoints);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAway3PA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Away3PA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAway3PM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.Away3PM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFGA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFGA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFGM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFGM);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFTA += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFTA);;
optimizer.FirstTotalAwayFTM += Convert.ToInt16(prediction.AwayFTM);;
}
}
optimizer.FirstHomePoints /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstHome3PA /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstHome3PM /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstHomeFGA /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstHomeFGM /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstHomeFTA /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstHomeFTM /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAwayPoints /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAway3PA /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAway3PM /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAwayFGA /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAwayFGM /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAwayFTA /= firstgames;
optimizer.FirstAwayFTM /= firstgames;
optimizer.HomePoints /= othergames;
optimizer.Home3PA /= othergames;
optimizer.Home3PM /= othergames;
optimizer.HomeFGA /= othergames;
optimizer.HomeFGM /= othergames;
optimizer.HomeFTA /= othergames;
optimizer.HomeFTM /= othergames;
optimizer.AwayPoints /= othergames;
optimizer.Away3PA /= othergames;
optimizer.Away3PM /= othergames;
optimizer.AwayFGA /= othergames;
optimizer.AwayFGM /= othergames;
optimizer.AwayFTA /= othergames;
optimizer.AwayFTM /= othergames;
this._dbContext.CoEfficientOptimizer.Add(optimizer);
this._unitOfWork.Commit();
}
public GamePredictions FullMatchSimulator1920(Team HomeTeam, Team AwayTeam, int GameNo, double Coefficient1, double Coefficient2, double Coefficient3, double Coefficient4, double Coefficient5, double Coefficient6, double Coefficient7)
{
//FullSeason Lists
List <FullSeason19_20> homeFullSeason = _getStatMethods.GetFullSeason1920TillGameNo(HomeTeam, GameNo);
List <FullSeason19_20> awayFullSeason = _getStatMethods.GetFullSeason1920TillGameNo(AwayTeam, GameNo);
//Standard Deviations
GameModel TotalDeviation = new GameModel();
GameModel HomeDeviation = _statCalculator.DeviationCalculator(homeFullSeason, HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(TotalDeviation, HomeDeviation);
GameModel AwayDeviation = _statCalculator.DeviationCalculator(awayFullSeason, AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelSwitch(AwayDeviation);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(TotalDeviation, AwayDeviation);
//Season Averages with Coefficients
var firstGame = true;
GameModel HomeGames = new GameModel();
GameModel AwayGames = new GameModel();
List <Team> homePlayedAgainst = new List <Team>();
foreach (var game in homeFullSeason)
{
if (HomeTeam == game.HomeTeam && !homePlayedAgainst.Contains(game.AwayTeam))
{
homePlayedAgainst.Add(game.AwayTeam);
}
else if (HomeTeam == game.AwayTeam && !homePlayedAgainst.Contains(game.HomeTeam))
{
homePlayedAgainst.Add(game.HomeTeam);
}
}
List <Team> awayPlayedAgainst = new List <Team>();
foreach (var game in awayFullSeason)
{
if (AwayTeam == game.HomeTeam && !awayPlayedAgainst.Contains(game.AwayTeam))
{
awayPlayedAgainst.Add(game.AwayTeam);
}
else if (AwayTeam == game.AwayTeam && !awayPlayedAgainst.Contains(game.HomeTeam))
{
awayPlayedAgainst.Add(game.HomeTeam);
}
}
List <Team> commonTeams = new List <Team>();
foreach (var team1 in homePlayedAgainst)
{
foreach (var team2 in awayPlayedAgainst)
{
if (team1 == team2)
{
commonTeams.Add(team1);
}
}
}
List <FullSeason19_20> homePlayedCommon = new List <FullSeason19_20>();
List <FullSeason19_20> awayPlayedCommon = new List <FullSeason19_20>();
foreach (var team in commonTeams)
{
homePlayedCommon.Add(homeFullSeason.FirstOrDefault(x => x.HomeTeam == team || x.AwayTeam == team));
awayPlayedCommon.Add(awayFullSeason.FirstOrDefault(x => x.HomeTeam == team || x.AwayTeam == team));
}
if (homeFullSeason.FirstOrDefault(x => (x.HomeTeam == HomeTeam && x.AwayTeam == AwayTeam) ||
(x.HomeTeam == AwayTeam && x.AwayTeam == HomeTeam)) != null)
{
firstGame = false;
GameModel homelast5games = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homeFullSeason.Take(5).ToList(), HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(homelast5games, Coefficient1);
GameModel homeathomegames = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homeFullSeason.Where(x => x.HomeTeam == HomeTeam).ToList(), HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(homeathomegames, Coefficient2);
GameModel homeCommon = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homePlayedCommon, HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(homeCommon, Coefficient3);
GameModel awaylast5games = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayFullSeason.Take(5).ToList(), AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(awaylast5games, Coefficient1);
GameModel awayatawaygames = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayFullSeason.Where(x => x.AwayTeam == AwayTeam).ToList(), AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(awayatawaygames, Coefficient2);
GameModel awayCommon = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayPlayedCommon, AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(awayCommon, Coefficient3);
GameModel seasonmatchups = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homeFullSeason.Where(x => (x.HomeTeam == HomeTeam && x.AwayTeam == AwayTeam) || (x.HomeTeam == AwayTeam && x.AwayTeam == HomeTeam)).ToList(), HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(seasonmatchups, Coefficient4);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, homelast5games);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, homeathomegames);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, homeCommon);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, seasonmatchups);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(AwayGames, awaylast5games);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(AwayGames, awayatawaygames);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(AwayGames, awayCommon);
_statCalculator.GameModelAdditionSwitch(AwayGames, seasonmatchups);
_statCalculator.GameModelSwitch(AwayGames);
}
else
{
GameModel homelast5games = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homeFullSeason.Take(5).ToList(), HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(homelast5games, Coefficient5);
GameModel homeCommon = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homePlayedCommon, HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(homeCommon, Coefficient6);
GameModel homeathomegames = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homeFullSeason.Where(x => x.HomeTeam == HomeTeam).ToList(), HomeTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(homeathomegames, Coefficient7);
GameModel awaylast5games = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayFullSeason.Take(5).ToList(), AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(awaylast5games, Coefficient5);
GameModel awayCommon = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayPlayedCommon, AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(awayCommon, Coefficient6);
GameModel awayatawaygames = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayFullSeason.Where(x => x.AwayTeam == AwayTeam).ToList(), AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(awayatawaygames, Coefficient7);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, homelast5games);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, homeathomegames);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, homeCommon);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(AwayGames, awaylast5games);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(AwayGames, awayatawaygames);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(AwayGames, awayCommon);
_statCalculator.GameModelSwitch(AwayGames);
}
_statCalculator.GameModelMultiplication(HomeGames, AwayDeviation);
_statCalculator.GameModelMultiplication(AwayGames, HomeDeviation);
_statCalculator.GameModelAddition(HomeGames, AwayGames);
_statCalculator.GameModelDivision(HomeGames, TotalDeviation);
GameModel homeSeasonAverages = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(homeFullSeason, HomeTeam);
GameModel awaySeasonAverages = _statCalculator.AverageCalculator(awayFullSeason, AwayTeam);
_statCalculator.GameModelSwitch(awaySeasonAverages);
GamePredictions Game = GameCalculator(HomeGames, homeSeasonAverages, awaySeasonAverages, HomeDeviation, AwayDeviation);
Game.HomeTeam = HomeTeam;
Game.AwayTeam = AwayTeam;
Game.GameNo = GameNo;
Game.FirstGame = firstGame;
return(Game);
}
