static void Main(string[] args)
{
const int DAYS_TO_CHECK = 90;
//DateTime day_to_check = Convert.ToDateTime("5/25/2015");
SwolepointsRanker ranks = new SwolepointsRanker(DateTime.Today.AddDays(-DAYS_TO_CHECK - 1));
//Swolepoints ranks = new Swolepoints(DateTime.Today.AddDays(-150), DateTime.Today.AddDays(-7));
Dictionary<string, HLTVTeam> ranked_teams;
ranked_teams = ranks.GenerateTrueSkill(DateTime.Today.AddDays(-DAYS_TO_CHECK - 1), DateTime.Today.AddDays(1));
List<HLTVTeam> teams = new List<HLTVTeam>();
foreach (HLTVTeam t in ranked_teams.Values)
teams.Add(t);
//ranked_teams.RemoveAll(o => o.rating.StandardDeviation > 2.8);
//ranked_teams.Sort((a, b) => b.elo.CompareTo(a.elo));
//teams.Sort((a, b) => a.name.CompareTo(b.name));
teams.Sort((a, b) => b.rating.ConservativeRating.CompareTo(a.rating.ConservativeRating));
//ranked_teams.Sort((a, b) => b.rating.ConservativeRating.CompareTo(a.rating.ConservativeRating));
using (StreamWriter w = new StreamWriter("./teams.json"))
{
w.WriteLine("Using knowlege of games from " + DateTime.Today.AddDays(1).Date.ToShortDateString() + " at the latest");
foreach (HLTVTeam t in teams)
{
w.WriteLine(t.name + ": " + Math.Round(t.rating.ConservativeRating * 50) + " (dev: " + t.rating.StandardDeviation + ")");
}
}
ranks.GenerateWinLossChart();
}
private void update_rankings(DateTime start, DateTime end)
{
teams.Clear();
SwolepointsRanker ranker = new SwolepointsRanker(start);
teams = ranker.GenerateTrueSkill(start, end);
}
private SimResults SimulateAllParsedMatches(DateTime sim_start, DateTime sim_end,
double start_bank, string path, bool limit_max, double max_pct, bool make_file)
{
SimResults results = new SimResults();
Dictionary<DateTime, List<Match>> date_map = new Dictionary<DateTime, List<Match>>();
double daily_bankroll = 0.0f;
results.start_amt = start_bank;
results.end_amt = start_bank;
results.max_gain = -1.0f;
results.max_loss = -1.0f;
results.lowest_bankroll = start_bank;
results.peak_bankroll = start_bank;
results.wins = 0;
results.losses = 0;
foreach (Match m in all_time_matches)
{
if (!date_map.ContainsKey(m.match_time.Date))
date_map.Add(m.match_time.Date, new List<Match>());
date_map[m.match_time.Date].Add(m);
}
System.IO.StreamWriter file = null;
if (make_file)
{
file = new System.IO.StreamWriter(path, false);
file.WriteLine(
"MatchID" + "\t"
+ "Date" + "\t"
+ "Winner" + "\t"
+ "WnrSwlPts" + "\t"
+ "WOdds" + "\t"
+ "Loser" + "\t"
+ "LsrSwlPts" + "\t"
+ "LOdds" + "\t"
+ "Pre-BR" + "\t"
+ "BetAmt" + "\t"
+ "NetChg" + "\t"
+ "%Chg" + "\t"
+ "Post-BR");
file.WriteLine(
"0000" + "\t" // match id
+ "00/00/0000" + "\t" // date
+ "" + "\t" // winner
+ "0000" + "\t" // winner swolepoints
+ "0.00" + "\t" // winner odds
+ "" + "\t" // loser
+ "0000" + "\t" // loser swolepoints
+ "0.00" + "\t" // loser odds
+ results.start_amt + "\t" // pre-br
+ "0.00" + "\t" // bet amt
+ "0.00" + "\t" // netchg
+ "0.00%" + "\t" // %chg
+ results.end_amt
); // post-br
}
int skip_games = 0;
DateTime old_date = DateTime.MinValue;
DateTime cur_date = DateTime.MinValue;
SwolepointsRanker ranker = new SwolepointsRanker(sim_start.AddDays(-RANK_DAYS_BACK));
Dictionary<string, HLTVTeam> rank_teams = null;
foreach (DateTime day in date_map.Keys)
{
if (day < sim_start || day > sim_end.AddMinutes(1440)) continue;
//daily_bankroll = Math.Truncate(results.end_amt / date_map[day].Count * 100) / 100;
daily_bankroll = Math.Truncate(results.end_amt / 10 * 100) / 100;
foreach (Match match in date_map[day])
{
if (match.winner == Winner.NoWinner) continue;
if (rank_teams != null && !fits_criteria(match, rank_teams[match.team_a.name], rank_teams[match.team_b.name]))
{
skip_games++;
continue;
}
cur_date = match.match_time.Date;
if (old_date == DateTime.MinValue || cur_date > old_date)
{
rank_teams = ranker.GenerateTrueSkill(cur_date.AddDays(-RANK_DAYS_BACK), cur_date.AddDays(-1));
old_date = cur_date;
}
if (rank_teams != null && !fits_criteria(match, rank_teams[match.team_a.name], rank_teams[match.team_b.name]))
{
skip_games++;
continue;
}
bool team_a_favored;
double smart_win_chance;
bool team_a_smart;
double win_probability = get_win_probability(
rank_teams[match.team_a.name].rating,
rank_teams[match.team_b.name].rating,
match.format,
out team_a_favored);
double rec_bet_pct;
if (team_a_favored)
rec_bet_pct = get_recommended_bet_pct(win_probability, match.team_a_odds);
else
rec_bet_pct = get_recommended_bet_pct(win_probability, match.team_b_odds);
if (team_a_favored && rec_bet_pct < 0)
{
// team A has a higher chance of winning, but less of a chance than Lounge says;
// therefore, team B is the smarter bet
smart_win_chance = (1 - win_probability);
team_a_smart = false;
rec_bet_pct = get_recommended_bet_pct(smart_win_chance, match.team_b_odds);
}
else if (team_a_favored && rec_bet_pct >= 0)
{
// team A has a higher chance of winning by an amount greater than Lounge says;
// therefore, team A is still the smarter bet
smart_win_chance = win_probability;
team_a_smart = true;
rec_bet_pct = get_recommended_bet_pct(smart_win_chance, match.team_a_odds);
}
else if (!team_a_favored && rec_bet_pct < 0)
{
// team B has a higher chance of winning, but less of a chance than Lounge says;
// therefore, team A is the smarter bet
smart_win_chance = (1 - win_probability);
team_a_smart = true;
rec_bet_pct = get_recommended_bet_pct(smart_win_chance, match.team_a_odds);
}
else
{
// team B has a higher chance of winning by an amount greater than Lounge says;
// therefore, team B is still the smarter bet
smart_win_chance = win_probability;
team_a_smart = false;
rec_bet_pct = get_recommended_bet_pct(smart_win_chance, match.team_b_odds);
}
double match_change = 0.0f;
double bet_amt = 0.0f;
if (results.end_amt > 0.03)
{
if (team_a_smart && match.winner == Winner.TeamA)
{
// team A won and we bet on it
results.wins++;
bet_amt = rec_bet_pct * daily_bankroll;
if (limit_max)
bet_amt = Math.Min(CSGL_MAX_BET, bet_amt);
bet_amt = Math.Min(bet_amt, daily_bankroll / max_pct);
bet_amt = Math.Truncate(bet_amt * 100) / 100;
match_change = Math.Truncate(bet_amt * match.team_a_odds * 100) / 100;
if (results.max_gain == -1.0f || results.max_gain < match_change)
{
results.max_gain = match_change;
results.max_gain_match = match;
}
if (make_file)
file.WriteLine(
match.match_id + "\t"
+ match.match_time.ToShortDateString() + "\t"
+ match.team_a.name + "\t"
+ Math.Round(teams[match.team_a.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50) + "\t"
+ match.team_b_pct + "\t"
+ match.team_b.name + "\t"
+ Math.Round(teams[match.team_b.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50) + "\t"
+ match.team_a_pct + "\t"
+ results.end_amt + "\t"
+ bet_amt + "\t"
+ match_change + "\t"
+ Math.Truncate((match_change / results.end_amt) * 100) / 100 + "\t"
+ (results.end_amt + match_change));
results.end_amt += match_change;
if (results.end_amt > results.peak_bankroll) results.peak_bankroll = results.end_amt;
}
else if (!team_a_smart && match.winner == Winner.TeamB)
{
// team B won and we bet on it
results.wins++;
bet_amt = rec_bet_pct * daily_bankroll;
if (limit_max)
bet_amt = Math.Min(CSGL_MAX_BET, bet_amt);
bet_amt = Math.Min(bet_amt, daily_bankroll / max_pct);
bet_amt = Math.Truncate(bet_amt * 100) / 100;
match_change = Math.Truncate(bet_amt * match.team_b_odds * 100) / 100;
if (results.max_gain == -1.0f || results.max_gain < match_change)
{
results.max_gain = match_change;
results.max_gain_match = match;
}
if (make_file)
file.WriteLine(
match.match_id + "\t"
+ match.match_time.ToShortDateString() + "\t"
+ match.team_b.name + "\t"
+ Math.Round(rank_teams[match.team_b.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50) + "\t"
+ match.team_b_pct + "\t"
+ match.team_a.name + "\t"
+ Math.Round(rank_teams[match.team_a.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50) + "\t"
+ match.team_a_pct + "\t"
+ results.end_amt + "\t"
+ bet_amt + "\t"
+ match_change + "\t"
+ Math.Truncate((match_change / results.end_amt) * 100) / 100 + "\t"
+ (results.end_amt + match_change)
);
results.end_amt += match_change;
if (results.end_amt > results.peak_bankroll) results.peak_bankroll = results.end_amt;
}
else if (team_a_smart && match.winner == Winner.TeamB || !team_a_smart && match.winner == Winner.TeamA)
{
// we lost
results.losses++;
bet_amt = rec_bet_pct * daily_bankroll;
if (limit_max)
bet_amt = Math.Min(CSGL_MAX_BET, bet_amt);
bet_amt = Math.Min(bet_amt, daily_bankroll / max_pct);
bet_amt = Math.Truncate(bet_amt * 100) / 100;
match_change = Math.Truncate(bet_amt * 100) / 100;
if (results.max_loss == -1.0f || results.max_loss < match_change)
{
results.max_loss = match_change;
results.max_loss_match = match;
}
if (make_file)
file.WriteLine(
match.match_id + "\t"
+ match.match_time.ToShortDateString() + "\t"
+ (match.rec_bet_a ? match.team_b.name : match.team_a.name) + "\t"
+ (match.rec_bet_a ?
Math.Round(rank_teams[match.team_b.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50)
: Math.Round(rank_teams[match.team_a.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50)) + "\t"
+ (match.rec_bet_a ? match.team_b_pct : match.team_a_pct) + "\t"
+ (match.rec_bet_a ? match.team_a.name : match.team_b.name) + "\t"
+ (match.rec_bet_a ?
Math.Round(rank_teams[match.team_a.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50)
: Math.Round(rank_teams[match.team_b.name].rating.ConservativeRating * 50)) + "\t"
+ (match.rec_bet_a ? match.team_a_pct : match.team_b_pct) + "\t"
+ results.end_amt + "\t"
+ bet_amt + "\t"
+ -match_change + "\t"
+ Math.Truncate((-match_change / results.end_amt) * 100) / 100 + "\t"
+ (results.end_amt - match_change)
);
results.end_amt -= match_change;
if (results.end_amt < results.lowest_bankroll) results.lowest_bankroll = results.end_amt;
}
results.end_amt = Math.Truncate(results.end_amt * 100) / 100;
}
else
break;
}
}
if (make_file)
file.Dispose();
results.net_pct_chg = results.end_amt / results.start_amt - 1;
return results;
}