//constructor
public Simulation(int n, Trial t)
{
trialResult = t;
trialNumber = n;
}
//function: run sim
private void RunSim(List <simpleInd> p, int m, int t, double amr)
{
List <Trial> trialList = new List <Trial>();
//counters used at end of sim to display crude results
int biggerPops = 0;
int extinctPops = 0;
int smallerPops = 0;
int neutralPops = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < t; i++) //Trial loop: run for the number of trials
{
Trial trial = new Trial(); //new trial has started, add monthly results to this
List <simpleInd> trialPop = new List <simpleInd>(p); //population to change within trial
lblRunning.Text = "Conducting trial " + i.ToString() + " of " + t;
lblRunning.Invalidate();
lblRunning.Update();
//Risk related variables
int riskLength = VitalRates.RISKPERIOD; //counter for AMRs, assumes month 0 of sim was NOT a takeover month so set counter above threshold
bool amrPeriod = false; //start of sim, default is no risk
for (int j = 0; j < m; j++) //Month loop: run until you reach the # months
{
//Step 1: age everyone up a month and add a month to necessary counters
AgeUp(trialPop); //add a month to everyone's age
trial.MonthOfTrial = j + 1; //this is the month within the trial
//Step 2: Give birth
GiveBirth(trialPop); //turn pregnancies that are long enough into babies
//Step 3: Decide if takeover occurred and if you're still under risk period
bool takeover = calc.CoinFlip(amr); //weighted coin flip for a new takeover
if (takeover) //takeover has occurred
{
riskLength = 0; //reset the risk period length to 0
amrPeriod = true; //you are in a risk period
}
else
{
riskLength++; //no new takeover but youre in a risk period already, so add a month to risk counter
}
if (riskLength >= VitalRates.RISKPERIOD)
{
amrPeriod = false; //if your risk period counter hits the threshold, turn off the risk variable
}
Month newMonth = new Month(trialPop.Count(), amrPeriod, takeover); //create a month to keep track of variables
//Step 4: generate survival rates for each age class based on amrPeriod
double adRate = calc.SampleBeta(vr.ReturnSurvMean(2, amrPeriod), vr.ReturnSurvSd(2, amrPeriod));
double juvRate = calc.SampleBeta(vr.ReturnSurvMean(1, amrPeriod), vr.ReturnSurvSd(1, amrPeriod));
double infRate = calc.SampleBeta(vr.ReturnSurvMean(0, amrPeriod), vr.ReturnSurvSd(0, amrPeriod));
double rate;
//Step 5: flip the weighted coin of death for each ind in your pop
for (int k = trialPop.Count - 1; k >= 0; k--) //loop through pop, can't use foreach because you subtract inds if they die
{
if (trialPop[k].AgeClass == 2)
{
rate = adRate;
}
else if (trialPop[k].AgeClass == 1)
{
rate = juvRate;
}
else
{
rate = infRate;
}
bool surv = calc.CoinFlip(rate);
//TEST MESSAGE
//MessageBox.Show("For ind " + trialPop[k].IndID + " age class " + trialPop[k].AgeClass +
// ", survival probability = " + rate + ". Survived? " + surv);
int?babyToKill = null;
if (surv == false) //individual died
{
//if ind is adult female with dependent infant remove baby too
if (trialPop[k].DepInf & trialPop[k].DepInfFem)
{
babyToKill = trialPop[k].DepInfID;
} //getting baby ID from a dead mom
//if ind is a dependent infant clear record from mom
foreach (simpleInd mom in trialPop)
{
if (mom.IndID == trialPop[k].MomID)
{
mom.DepInf = false; //no longer has dependent infant
mom.DepInfID = 0; //remove infant ID from mom
mom.DepInfFem = false; //i dont think this matters
mom.LastInfSurv = false; //puts mom on the accelerated IBI path
} //mom alterations
} //search population for the mom in question
trialPop.RemoveAt(k); //remove ind from population
if (babyToKill.HasValue)
{
trialPop.RemoveAll(x => x.IndID == babyToKill); //lambda expression "remove all instances in trialPop where the Individ X has ID that the DepInfID"
newMonth.Deaths++;
}
newMonth.Deaths++;
} //death loop
}
//Step 6: flip the death coin for infant males (only to release blocks from moms)
foreach (simpleInd maleMoms in trialPop)
{
if (maleMoms.DepInf & maleMoms.DepInfFem == false)
{
bool surv = calc.CoinFlip(infRate);
if (!surv) //baby died, clear blocks from mom
{
maleMoms.DepInf = false;
maleMoms.LastInfSurv = false;
maleMoms.DepInfID = 0;
}
}
}
//Step 7: surviving females have a chance to conceive.
for (int l = trialPop.Count - 1; l >= 0; l--)
{
if (!trialPop[l].Preg) //monthly conception attempt for individs not pregnant. juve and infant likelihood is 0
{
trialPop[l].Preg = calc.CoinFlip(vr.ReturnReprodMean(trialPop[l])); //weighted coin flip for baby or no
}
}
newMonth.PopEnd = trialPop.Count();
RefreshPopulation(trialPop, lstCurrentPop, txtCurrentPop);
//TEST MESSAGE
//MessageBox.Show("End of month. AMR? " + amrPeriod);
trial.MonthResults = newMonth;
}//End of single month
trialList.Add(trial);
}//End of all trials
//pull summary statistics from simulation
foreach (Trial trial in trialList)
{
if (trial.MonthResults.PopEnd == 0)
{
extinctPops++;
}
else if (trial.MonthResults.PopEnd > trial.MonthResults.PopStart + VitalRates.NEUTRALGROWTH)
{
biggerPops++;
}
else if (trial.MonthResults.PopEnd < trial.MonthResults.PopStart - VitalRates.NEUTRALGROWTH)
{
smallerPops++;
}
else
{
neutralPops++;
}
}
MessageBox.Show("In total you conducted " + trialList.Count() + " trials of a starting population of " + p.Count() + ". The population increased in " + biggerPops + " trials, stayed the same in "
+ neutralPops + ", decreased in " + smallerPops + ", and went extinct in " + extinctPops);
lblRunning.Text = "";
lblRunning.Invalidate();
lblRunning.Update();
}//Full function
