public override double Evaluate(DateTime forecastDate, bool lookAhead, double estimationScaleFactor)
{
CreateSeriesList();
ReadFromHydromet(forecastDate);
MonthlyEstimation.EstimateFutureWithAverage(list, forecastDate, estimationScaleFactor);
return(WeightedSum());
}
/// <summary>
/// computes the value for this term, estimating if necessary
/// </summary>
/// <param name="forecastDate">Date of forecast</param>
/// <param name="lookAhead">set to true for historical 'perfect' forecast</param>
/// <returns></returns>
public override double Evaluate(DateTime forecastDate, bool lookAhead, double estimationScaleFactor)
{
CreateSeriesList();
ReadFromHydromet(forecastDate);
MonthlyEstimation.EstimateMissingByGroup(list, forecastDate);
if (!lookAhead)
{
MonthlyEstimation.EstimateFutureWithAverage(list, forecastDate, estimationScaleFactor);
}
this.xData = list;
////WriteSeriesDataToConsole(list);
double rval = WeightedSum();
Console.WriteLine("Total = " + rval);
return(rval);
}
/// <summary>
/// Computes Snow forecast term
/// </summary>
/// <param name="forecastDate"></param>
/// <param name="lookAhead"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public override double Evaluate(DateTime forecastDate, bool lookAhead, double estimationScaleFactor)
{
Logger.WriteLine("Computing Snow Term ");
if (MonthNames.Count != 1)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Snow Term should have a single month, not a range");
}
//lower elevations peak around March 1, and higher around April 1.
int m = GetMonthFromString(this.MonthNames[0]);
DateTime snowPeak = new DateTime(forecastDate.Year, m, 1);
if (forecastDate >= snowPeak || lookAhead)
{// use observed mpoll data (no estimation needed)
CreateSeriesList();
list.Read(snowPeak, snowPeak.EndOfMonth());
MonthlyEstimation.EstimateMissingByGroup(list, forecastDate);
return(WeightedSum());
}
else
{ // estimate snow at the peak
// a) snow at forecast date
// b) avg snow at forecast date
// c) avg snow at peak date
// d) avg accumulation = ( c - b) * estimationScaleFactor
// e) estimate = a + d
snowDetails.Add(this.ForecastTermType);// Snow
if (forecastDate.Month > 9)
{
throw new ArgumentOutOfRangeException("Error: forecast month is before january");
}
bool midMonth = forecastDate.Day != 1;
int mpollMonth = forecastDate.Month;
if (midMonth)
{
mpollMonth++; // march 16 'mid-month' value is stored in April (mpoll)
}
var a = CreateAndRead(forecastDate.Year, mpollMonth);
if (!midMonth)
{
MonthlyEstimation.EstimateMissingByGroup(a, forecastDate);
}
var b = CreateAndRead(9999, forecastDate.Month, true);// avg at forecaset date
if (midMonth)
{
var b2 = CreateAndRead(9999, mpollMonth, true);// avg at next month..
var delta = AddIgnoreDates(b2, b, true);
double numDays = DateTime.DaysInMonth(forecastDate.Year, forecastDate.Month);
double proration = (forecastDate.Day) / numDays;
for (int i = 0; i < b.Count; i++)
{
Reclamation.TimeSeries.Math.Multiply(delta[i], proration);
}
b = AddIgnoreDates(b, delta);
}
var c = CreateAndRead(9999, snowPeak.Month, true);
var d = AddIgnoreDates(c, b, true);
if (estimationScaleFactor != 1.0)
{
Scale(d, estimationScaleFactor);
}
list = AddIgnoreDates(a, d);
string msg = " ".PadRight(25) + " wt. " + forecastDate.ToString("MMM d").PadRight(5)
+ " Normal"
+ " AVG ACC "
+ snowPeak.ToString("MMM d").PadRight(6);
Logger.WriteLine(msg);
snowDetails.Add(msg);
for (int i = 0; i < siteNames.Count; i++)
{
msg = siteNames[i].PadRight(25)
+ siteWeights[i].ToString("F2").PadLeft(6) + " "
+ Format(a[i][0])
+ Format(b[i][0])
+ Format(d[i][0]) //pt.Value.ToString("F2").PadLeft(6)
+ list[i][0].Value.ToString("F2").PadLeft(6) + "E";
snowDetails.Add(msg);
Logger.WriteLine(msg);
}
double rval = 0;
try
{
rval = WeightedSum();
}
catch (Exception error)
{
msg = "Error in Snow Term, computing weighted sum. Possible missing data?";
Logger.WriteLine(msg);
throw new Exception(msg, error);
}
return(rval);
}
}