public NFLResult PredictGame( NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate )
{
if ( persistor == null ) StorePrediction = false;
var homePower = game.HomeNflTeam.GetPowerRating( game.Week );
var awayPower = game.AwayNflTeam.GetPowerRating( game.Week );
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "PredictGame: Home Power {0} v Away Power {1}",
// homePower, awayPower ) );
// Add 2.5 to the Home teams power rating
homePower += 2.5M;
// Compare Power Rating to get the line
var line = homePower - awayPower;
// Estrapolate the score from the line using 21 point average
var homeScore = 21.0M;
var awayScore = 21.0M ;
if ( line > 0 )
homeScore += line;
if ( line < 0 )
awayScore -= line;
var intHomeScore = Int32.Parse( Math.Round( homeScore, 0 ).ToString() ) ;
var intAwayScore = Int32.Parse( Math.Round( awayScore, 0 ).ToString() );
var res = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, intHomeScore, game.AwayTeam, intAwayScore );
if ( StorePrediction )
StorePredictedResult( game, res );
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "PredictGame: Result predicted - {0}", res.LogResult() ) );
return res;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
const int avgScore = 21;
var homeRating = RatingsService.GetNibbleRatingFor( game.HomeNflTeam, predictionDate );
var awayRating = RatingsService.GetNibbleRatingFor( game.AwayNflTeam, predictionDate );
var homeOff = homeRating.Offence;
var homeDef = homeRating.Defence;
var awayOff = awayRating.Offence;
var awayDef = awayRating.Defence;
var homeScore = avgScore + ((homeOff + awayDef) / 2) + 3; // 3pts home field advantage
var awayScore = avgScore + ((awayOff + homeDef) / 2);
homeScore = Utility.PickAScore(homeScore);
awayScore = Utility.PickAScore(awayScore);
if (homeScore == awayScore) homeScore++; // no ties
var res = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore );
//TODO: Nibble predictor does not predict Tdp or Tdr
if (AuditTrail)
{
AuditPrediction(game, awayDef, awayOff, homeOff, res, homeDef);
if ( StorePrediction )
StorePredictedResult( game, res );
}
return res;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
var weekIndex = Int32.Parse(game.Week) - 1;
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap(homeLetter, awayLetter);
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
//
// I give 3/4 strength to the letter power rating because it is adjusted every week and
// better takes into account a team's current form. The number power ratings though more
// objective, are totally dependant on Scores, which at times can be deceptive.
var homeNumberAvgRating = ( game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[ 0 ] +
game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[ weekIndex ] ) / 2.0M;
var awayNumberAvgRating = ( game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[ 0 ] +
game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[ weekIndex ] ) / 2.0M;
// home advantage
homeNumberAvgRating += 2.5M;
var numberRating = ( homeNumberAvgRating - awayNumberAvgRating );
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = RoundToNearestHalfPoint((0.75M * ratingGap) + (0.25M * numberRating));
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap / 2));
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap * -1) / 2);
return new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore);
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
var res = game.Played() ? new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, game.HomeScore, game.AwayTeam, game.AwayScore)
: new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, 21, game.AwayTeam, 17);
return(res);
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
var res = game.Played() ? new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, game.HomeScore, game.AwayTeam, game.AwayScore )
: new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, 21, game.AwayTeam, 17 );
return res;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if ( game.HomeNflTeam == null ) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season + game.HomeTeam );
if ( game.AwayNflTeam == null ) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season + game.AwayTeam );
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[ 0 ].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[ 0 ].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap( homeLetter, awayLetter );
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = ratingGap;
var decimalEquivalent = DanGordan.CalculateSpreadsAsDecimals( ratingGap );
if ( ratingGap > 0 )
{
// home win
game.HomeDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to home
game.AwayDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to away
}
else
{
// away win
game.AwayDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to away
game.HomeDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to home
}
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32( ( ratingGap/2 ) );
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32( ( ratingGap*-1 )/2 );
return new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore );
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
var result = new NFLResult {
AwayTeam = game.AwayTeam, HomeTeam = game.HomeTeam
};
var homeTeam = game.HomeNflTeam;
var awayTeam = game.AwayNflTeam;
var nHomeOff = Utility.OffRating(homeTeam, predictionDate);
var nAwayOff = Utility.OffRating(awayTeam, predictionDate);
var nHomeDef = Utility.DefRating(homeTeam, predictionDate);
var nAwayDef = Utility.DefRating(awayTeam, predictionDate);
result.HomeScore = (nHomeOff + nAwayDef) - 20;
result.AwayScore = (nAwayOff + nHomeDef) - 20;
persistor.StorePrediction("Miller", game, result);
if (AuditTrail)
{
Utility.Announce(string.Format("{0}-{1}:{2}", game.GameCodeOut(), game.GameCode, result.LogResult()));
}
return(result);
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
NFLResult res;
//RosterLib.Utility.Announce( string.Format( "WizPredictor.PredictGame: Wk{2} {0}@{1}",
// game.AwayTeam, game.HomeTeam, game.Week ) );
if (game.Played())
{
res = new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, game.HomeScore, game.AwayTeam, game.AwayScore);
}
else
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null)
{
game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season, game.HomeTeam);
}
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null)
{
game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season, game.AwayTeam);
}
var homeMatrix = game.HomeNflTeam.GetMatrix();
var awayMatrix = game.AwayNflTeam.GetMatrix();
// Homescore = Tdp*7 + Tdr*7 + 3
var homePointsPassing = Tdp(homeMatrix.PoPoints - awayMatrix.PdPoints);
var homePointsRunning = Tdr(homeMatrix.RoPoints - awayMatrix.RdPoints);
var homeScore = homePointsPassing + homePointsRunning + 3;
// Awayscore = Tdp*7 + Tdr*7
var awayPointsPassing = Tdp(awayMatrix.PoPoints - homeMatrix.PdPoints);
var awayPointsRunning = Tdr(awayMatrix.RoPoints - homeMatrix.RdPoints);
var awayScore = awayPointsPassing + awayPointsRunning;
if (homeScore == awayScore)
{
homeScore++; // no ties
}
res = new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore)
{
AwayTDp = (awayPointsPassing / 7),
HomeTDp = (homePointsPassing / 7),
AwayTDr = (awayPointsRunning / 7),
HomeTDr = (homePointsRunning / 7)
};
if (AuditTrail)
{
Utility.Announce(string.Format("Wiz Prediction Wk{4} {0}@{1} {2}-{3} ",
game.AwayTeam, game.HomeTeam, res.AwayScore, res.HomeScore, game.Week));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" hTDr({0}) hTDp({1}) aTDr({2}) aTDp({3})",
res.HomeTDr, res.HomeTDp, res.AwayTDr, res.AwayTDp));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" hPOpts({0:#.#}) hROpts({1:#.#}) aRDpts({2:#.#}) aPDpts({3:#.#})",
homeMatrix.PoPoints, homeMatrix.RoPoints, awayMatrix.RdPoints, awayMatrix.PdPoints));
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" aPOpts({0:#.#}) aROpts({1:#.#}) hRDpts({2:#.#}) hPDpts({3:#.#})",
awayMatrix.PoPoints, awayMatrix.RoPoints, homeMatrix.RdPoints, homeMatrix.PdPoints));
}
}
return(res);
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
NFLResult res;
//RosterLib.Utility.Announce( string.Format( "WizPredictor.PredictGame: Wk{2} {0}@{1}",
// game.AwayTeam, game.HomeTeam, game.Week ) );
if ( game.Played() )
res = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, game.HomeScore, game.AwayTeam, game.AwayScore );
else
{
if ( game.HomeNflTeam == null ) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season, game.HomeTeam );
if ( game.AwayNflTeam == null ) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season, game.AwayTeam );
var homeMatrix = game.HomeNflTeam.GetMatrix();
var awayMatrix = game.AwayNflTeam.GetMatrix();
// Homescore = Tdp*7 + Tdr*7 + 3
var homePointsPassing = Tdp( homeMatrix.PoPoints - awayMatrix.PdPoints );
var homePointsRunning = Tdr( homeMatrix.RoPoints - awayMatrix.RdPoints );
var homeScore = homePointsPassing + homePointsRunning + 3;
// Awayscore = Tdp*7 + Tdr*7
var awayPointsPassing = Tdp( awayMatrix.PoPoints - homeMatrix.PdPoints );
var awayPointsRunning = Tdr( awayMatrix.RoPoints - homeMatrix.RdPoints );
var awayScore = awayPointsPassing + awayPointsRunning;
if ( homeScore == awayScore ) homeScore++; // no ties
res = new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore)
{
AwayTDp = (awayPointsPassing/7),
HomeTDp = (homePointsPassing/7),
AwayTDr = (awayPointsRunning/7),
HomeTDr = (homePointsRunning/7)
};
if ( AuditTrail )
{
Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Wiz Prediction Wk{4} {0}@{1} {2}-{3} ",
game.AwayTeam, game.HomeTeam, res.AwayScore, res.HomeScore, game.Week ) );
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " hTDr({0}) hTDp({1}) aTDr({2}) aTDp({3})",
res.HomeTDr, res.HomeTDp, res.AwayTDr, res.AwayTDp ));
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " hPOpts({0:#.#}) hROpts({1:#.#}) aRDpts({2:#.#}) aPDpts({3:#.#})",
homeMatrix.PoPoints, homeMatrix.RoPoints, awayMatrix.RdPoints, awayMatrix.PdPoints ));
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " aPOpts({0:#.#}) aROpts({1:#.#}) hRDpts({2:#.#}) hPDpts({3:#.#})",
awayMatrix.PoPoints, awayMatrix.RoPoints, homeMatrix.RdPoints, homeMatrix.PdPoints ));
}
}
return res;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (persistor == null)
{
StorePrediction = false;
}
var homePower = game.HomeNflTeam.GetPowerRating(game.Week);
var awayPower = game.AwayNflTeam.GetPowerRating(game.Week);
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "PredictGame: Home Power {0} v Away Power {1}",
// homePower, awayPower ) );
// Add 2.5 to the Home teams power rating
homePower += 2.5M;
// Compare Power Rating to get the line
var line = homePower - awayPower;
// Estrapolate the score from the line using 21 point average
var homeScore = 21.0M;
var awayScore = 21.0M;
if (line > 0)
{
homeScore += line;
}
if (line < 0)
{
awayScore -= line;
}
var intHomeScore = Int32.Parse(Math.Round(homeScore, 0).ToString());
var intAwayScore = Int32.Parse(Math.Round(awayScore, 0).ToString());
var res = new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, intHomeScore, game.AwayTeam, intAwayScore);
if (StorePrediction)
{
StorePredictedResult(game, res);
}
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "PredictGame: Result predicted - {0}", res.LogResult() ) );
return(res);
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null)
{
game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
}
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null)
{
game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
}
game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
var weekIndex = Int32.Parse(game.Week) - 1;
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap(homeLetter, awayLetter);
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
//
// I give 3/4 strength to the letter power rating because it is adjusted every week and
// better takes into account a team's current form. The number power ratings though more
// objective, are totally dependant on Scores, which at times can be deceptive.
var homeNumberAvgRating = (game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[0] +
game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[weekIndex]) / 2.0M;
var awayNumberAvgRating = (game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[0] +
game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[weekIndex]) / 2.0M;
// home advantage
homeNumberAvgRating += 2.5M;
var numberRating = (homeNumberAvgRating - awayNumberAvgRating);
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = RoundToNearestHalfPoint((0.75M * ratingGap) + (0.25M * numberRating));
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap / 2));
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap * -1) / 2);
return(new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore));
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null)
{
game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
}
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null)
{
game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
}
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[0].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[0].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap(homeLetter, awayLetter);
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = ratingGap;
var decimalEquivalent = DanGordan.CalculateSpreadsAsDecimals(ratingGap);
if (ratingGap > 0)
{
// home win
game.HomeDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to home
game.AwayDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to away
}
else
{
// away win
game.AwayDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to away
game.HomeDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to home
}
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap / 2));
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap * -1) / 2);
return(new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore));
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
var result = new NFLResult {AwayTeam = game.AwayTeam, HomeTeam = game.HomeTeam};
var homeTeam = game.HomeNflTeam;
var awayTeam = game.AwayNflTeam;
var nHomeOff = Utility.OffRating(homeTeam, predictionDate);
var nAwayOff = Utility.OffRating(awayTeam, predictionDate);
var nHomeDef = Utility.DefRating(homeTeam, predictionDate);
var nAwayDef = Utility.DefRating(awayTeam, predictionDate);
result.HomeScore = (nHomeOff + nAwayDef) - 20;
result.AwayScore = (nAwayOff + nHomeDef) - 20;
persistor.StorePrediction("Miller", game, result);
if (AuditTrail)
Utility.Announce(string.Format("{0}-{1}:{2}", game.GameCodeOut(), game.GameCode, result.LogResult()));
return result;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
const int avgScore = 21;
var homeRating = RatingsService.GetNibbleRatingFor(game.HomeNflTeam, predictionDate);
var awayRating = RatingsService.GetNibbleRatingFor(game.AwayNflTeam, predictionDate);
var homeOff = homeRating.Offence;
var homeDef = homeRating.Defence;
var awayOff = awayRating.Offence;
var awayDef = awayRating.Defence;
var homeScore = avgScore + ((homeOff + awayDef) / 2) + 3; // 3pts home field advantage
var awayScore = avgScore + ((awayOff + homeDef) / 2);
homeScore = Utility.PickAScore(homeScore);
awayScore = Utility.PickAScore(awayScore);
if (homeScore == awayScore)
{
homeScore++; // no ties
}
var res = new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore);
//TODO: Nibble predictor does not predict Tdp or Tdr
if (AuditTrail)
{
AuditPrediction(game, awayDef, awayOff, homeOff, res, homeDef);
if (StorePrediction)
{
StorePredictedResult(game, res);
}
}
return(res);
}
public SpreadPredictionGenerator(string season, IStorePredictions predictionStorer)
{
Season = new NflSeason(season);
_predictionStorer = predictionStorer;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(
NFLGame game,
IStorePredictions persistor,
DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (TakeActuals && game.Played())
{
return(game.Result);
}
const int homeRating = 0;
const int awayRating = 0;
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null)
{
game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(
game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
}
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null)
{
game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(
game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
}
var homeMetrics = CalculateGameMetrics(
isHome: true,
game: game,
focusDate: predictionDate);
var awayMetrics = CalculateGameMetrics(
isHome: false,
game: game,
focusDate: predictionDate);
var homeScore = homeMetrics.Score;
var awayScore = awayMetrics.Score;
if (homeScore == awayScore)
{
homeScore++; // no ties
}
game.Result = new NFLResult(
game.HomeTeam,
homeScore,
game.AwayTeam,
awayScore)
{
HomeTDp = _homeTDp,
HomeTDr = _homeTDr,
HomeFg = _homeFg,
HomeTDd = _homeTDd,
HomeTDs = _homeTDs,
HomeYDp = homeMetrics.YDp,
HomeYDr = homeMetrics.YDr,
AwayTDr = _awayTDr,
AwayTDp = _awayTDp,
AwayTDs = awayMetrics.TDs,
AwayTDd = awayMetrics.TDd,
AwayYDp = awayMetrics.YDp,
AwayYDr = awayMetrics.YDr,
AwayFg = _awayFg
};
if (AuditTrail)
{
AuditIt(game, game.Result, homeRating, awayRating);
}
if (StorePrediction)
{
StorePredictedResult(
game,
game.Result);
}
// pulled this out to its own job "GameProjectionReportsJob"
//if ( WriteProjection )
// game.WriteProjection();
return(game.Result);
}
public SpreadTips(IStorePredictions storer)
{
Storer = storer;
}
public SpreadTips( IStorePredictions storer )
{
Storer = storer;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame( NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate )
{
if ( TakeActuals )
if ( game.Played() )
return game.Result;
const int homeRating = 0;
const int awayRating = 0;
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season + game.HomeTeam );
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season + game.AwayTeam );
var homeMetrics = CalculateGameMetrics( true, game, predictionDate );
var awayMetrics = CalculateGameMetrics( false, game, predictionDate );
var homeScore = homeMetrics.Score;
var awayScore = awayMetrics.Score;
if (homeScore == awayScore) homeScore++; // no ties
game.Result = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore )
{
HomeTDp = _homeTDp,
HomeTDr = _homeTDr,
HomeFg = _homeFg,
HomeTDd = _homeTDd,
HomeTDs = _homeTDs,
HomeYDp = homeMetrics.YDp,
HomeYDr = homeMetrics.YDr,
AwayTDr = _awayTDr,
AwayTDp = _awayTDp,
AwayTDs = awayMetrics.TDs,
AwayTDd = awayMetrics.TDd,
AwayYDp = awayMetrics.YDp,
AwayYDr = awayMetrics.YDr,
AwayFg = _awayFg
};
if ( AuditTrail )
AuditIt( game, game.Result, homeRating, awayRating );
if ( StorePrediction )
StorePredictedResult( game, game.Result );
// pulled this out to its own job "GameProjectionReportsJob"
//if ( WriteProjection )
// game.WriteProjection();
return game.Result;
}
