public ActionResult BatchResults(int cat = 50)
{
Logging.Debug("Entered BatchResults");
var model = new ChartViewModel();
model.ChartData = "";
try
{
var tasks = repository.ToList();
Logging.Debug("Tasks length:{0}", tasks.Count());
var values = new List<Forecast>();
foreach (var task in tasks)
{
Logging.Debug("Start task {0}", task);
var forecast = task.Forecasts.FirstOrDefault();
Logging.Debug("Forecast result error: {0}", forecast.Error);
if (forecast.Error.HasValue && !double.IsNaN(forecast.Error.Value))
{
values.Add(forecast);
}
}
Logging.Debug("Foreach finished");
var errors = values.Select(x => x.Error.Value);
var minError = errors.Min();
if (double.IsNaN(minError)) minError = 0;
var maxError = errors.Max();
var gap = (maxError - minError) / cat;
Logging.Debug("Start bucketing");
var buckets = new int[cat];
foreach (var value in values)
{
var bucket = gap > 0 ? (int)Math.Floor((value.Error.Value - minError) / gap) : 0;
if (bucket == cat) bucket--;
buckets[bucket]++;
}
var result = new List<dynamic>();
int i = 0;
double lowerBound = 0;
double upperBound = 0;
Logging.Debug("starting foreach");
foreach (var q in buckets)
{
Logging.Debug("Bucket {0}", q);
i++;
dynamic value = new ExpandoObject();
upperBound = minError + i * gap;
value.Error = String.Format("{0} - {1}", (lowerBound / 100).ToString("00.0000"), (upperBound / 100).ToString("00.0000"));
lowerBound = upperBound;
value.Quantity = q;
result.Add(value);
}
Logging.Debug("Finished bucketing");
model.ChartData = JsonConvert.SerializeObject(result);
return View(model);
}
catch (Exception e)
{
return Content(e.Message);
}
}
private ChartViewModel GetTrustIndexChart(string id, out List<Tuple<DateTime, int>> winnerModels)
{
winnerModels = new List<Tuple<DateTime, int>>();
var model = new ChartViewModel();
model.ChartName = "Trust Index model";
try
{
var forecasts = repository.FirstOrDefault(x => x.MeasurementId == id).Forecasts;
var startForecastingDate =
forecasts.Select(x => x.Results.FirstOrDefault(r => r.PredictedValue != null).TimeStamp).Max();
//дата, начиная с которой будем использовать метод trust index
var lastDate = forecasts[0].Results.LastOrDefault().TimeStamp;
var startTestDate = testStartDateProvider.GetTimestampOfTestStart(lastDate);
startForecastingDate = startForecastingDate.AddHours(12).Date; //округляем до ближайшего дня
var values = new List<ForecastResult>();
values.AddRange(forecasts[0].Results.TakeWhile(x => x.TimeStamp < startForecastingDate).Select(x =>
{
x.PredictedValue = null;
return x;
}));
var forecastResults = forecasts.Select(x => x.Results.SkipWhile(y => y.TimeStamp < startForecastingDate).ToList()).ToList();
var trustIndexDict = new Dictionary<int, int>();
for (int i = 0; i < forecastResults.Count(); i++)
{
trustIndexDict.Add(i, 0);
}
var currentDay = startForecastingDate.AddDays(1);
var errorSum = 0.0;
var counter = 0;
while (currentDay.Date <= lastDate.AddDays(1))
{
var innerCurrentDay = currentDay;
var nextDay = forecastResults.Select(x => x.TakeWhile(r => r.TimeStamp < innerCurrentDay).ToList()).ToList();
forecastResults = forecastResults.Select(x => x.SkipWhile(r => r.TimeStamp < innerCurrentDay).ToList()).ToList();
var errors = nextDay.Select(x => CalculateMAPE(x)).ToList();
var minError = errors.Min();
var winningModelIndex = errors.FindIndex(x => x == minError);
trustIndexDict[winningModelIndex]++;
var mostTrustedModelIndex = trustIndexDict.FirstOrDefault(x => x.Value == trustIndexDict.Max(y => y.Value)).Key;
winnerModels.Add(new Tuple<DateTime, int>(innerCurrentDay.AddDays(-1), mostTrustedModelIndex));
values.AddRange(nextDay[mostTrustedModelIndex]);
if (currentDay >= startTestDate)
{
counter++;
errorSum += minError;
}
currentDay = currentDay.AddDays(1);
}
model.ChartData = JsonConvert.SerializeObject(GetValuesForChart(values));
model.Error = CalculateMAPE(values.SkipWhile(x => x.TimeStamp < startTestDate));
return model;
}
catch (Exception)
{
throw;
}
}
private ChartViewModel GetWinnerModelsChart(List<Tuple<DateTime, int>> winnerModels)
{
var model = new ChartViewModel();
model.ChartName = "Winner models chart";
var values = new List<dynamic>();
foreach (var winner in winnerModels)
{
dynamic value = new ExpandoObject();
value.TimeStamp = winner.Item1;
value.ValueReal = winner.Item2;
values.Add(value);
}
model.ChartData = JsonConvert.SerializeObject(values);
return model;
}
private ChartViewModel GetChart(Forecast forecast)
{
var model = new ChartViewModel();
model.ChartName = forecast.ForecastModelId;
var results = forecast.Results;
var values = GetValuesForChart(results);
model.ChartData = JsonConvert.SerializeObject(values);
var lastDate = forecast.Results.LastOrDefault().TimeStamp;
//lastDate = lastDate.AddHours(12).Date; //округляем до ближайшего дня
model.Error = CalculateMAPE(forecast.Results.SkipWhile(x => x.TimeStamp < testStartDateProvider.GetTimestampOfTestStart(lastDate)));
return model;
}
