public static FlowSimulationStatisticOutput CreateOutput(List <double> simulationTimes)
{
FlowSimulationStatisticOutput output = new FlowSimulationStatisticOutput();
var dp = new DurationPercentiles(simulationTimes);
var min = (int)Math.Floor(dp.Durations.First());
var max = (int)Math.Ceiling(dp.DurationAtPercentile(0.9995)); // limit the histogram to 99.95% of times, to hide extremes and shorten the tail
var buckets = (max - min);
Histogram hist = new Histogram(simulationTimes, buckets, min, max);
output.HistogramValues = new double[hist.BucketCount];
output.HistogramLabels = new double[hist.BucketCount];
double simulationsCount = simulationTimes.Count;
for (int i = 0; i < hist.BucketCount; i++)
{
var bucket = hist[i];
output.HistogramValues[i] = (bucket.Count / simulationsCount) * 100; // % of times the simulation ended at this time
output.HistogramLabels[i] = bucket.LowerBound;
}
output.Percentile50 = dp.DurationAtPercentile(0.50);
output.Percentile70 = dp.DurationAtPercentile(0.70);
output.Percentile85 = dp.DurationAtPercentile(0.85);
output.Percentile95 = dp.DurationAtPercentile(0.95);
output.Percentile99 = dp.DurationAtPercentile(0.99);
return(output);
}
private static void WriteSimulationTimeHistogram(FlowSimulationStatisticOutput output)
{
Console.WriteLine("Simulation Time");
for (int i = 0; i < output.HistogramValues.Length; i++)
{
Console.WriteLine($"{output.HistogramLabels[i]:F1} : {output.HistogramValues[i]}");
}
Console.WriteLine($"Percentile 50% : {output.Percentile50:F2}");
Console.WriteLine($"Percentile 70% : {output.Percentile70:F2}");
Console.WriteLine($"Percentile 85% : {output.Percentile85:F2}");
Console.WriteLine($"Percentile 95% : {output.Percentile95:F2}");
Console.WriteLine($"Percentile 99% : {output.Percentile99:F2}");
}
public static FlowSimulationStatisticOutput RunSimulationStatistic(double newStoryRate, double[] storyCycleTimes, int simulationRuns, int expectedCompletedStoriesMin, int expectedCompletedStoriesMax)
{
List <double> simulationTimes = new List <double>();
List <double> avgWorkInProgress = new List <double>();
DiscreteUniform completedStoriesDistribution = new DiscreteUniform(expectedCompletedStoriesMin, expectedCompletedStoriesMax);
for (int i = 0; i < simulationRuns; i++)
{
var simulation = new FlowSimulation(newStoryRate, storyCycleTimes, completedStoriesDistribution.Sample());
simulation.Run();
simulationTimes.Add(simulation.SimulationTime);
avgWorkInProgress.Add(simulation.AverageWorkInProgress);
}
FlowSimulationStatisticOutput output = FlowSimulationStatisticOutput.CreateOutput(simulationTimes);
return(output);
}
