public double EstimateWinProbability(Game game, ID <Readable_GamePlayer> playerId)
{
Readable_GamePlayer player = game.Get_ReadableSnapshot(playerId);
// first check for obvious things like whether one player has already lost
if (game.GetWinner() != null)
{
if (game.GetWinner() == player)
{
return(1);
}
else
{
return(0);
}
}
if (game.GetLosers().Count == game.NumPlayers)
{
return(0);
//return 1.0 / game.NumPlayers;
}
// Now compute a heuristic based on how much stuff each player has
double totalScore = 0;
double playerScore = 0;
double activePlayer = 1;
foreach (Readable_GamePlayer candidate in game.Players)
{
// Exchange rates:
// n power and n toughness is worth n mana
// losing 25% of your life is worth 2 mana
// 1 crystal per turn is worth 2 mana now.
// n cards in hand is worth n mana (the cards often generate n mana worth of value (plus the mana spent to play them) even though they often cost 2*n to draw them)
// Being the active player is worth 0.5 cards and 0.5 mana/turn, but the active player has received 1 additional card and 1 additional mana, so these must each be subtracted instead
// This results in this score (equivalent amount of mana this turn):
// mana+manaPerTurn*2++((power+toughness)/2)+(log(life)/log(4/3))+(activePlayer?)*-1.5+handSize
/*
* double score = candidate.Get_CurrentResources().ToNumber() * activePlayer / 2 + candidate.Get_ResourcesPerTurn().ToNumber() - activePlayer * 2 +
* (candidate.Get_Total_MonsterDamage(game) + candidate.Get_Total_MonsterHealth(game)) / 2 + Math.Log(candidate.GetHealth()) / Math.Log(4.0 / 3.0);
*/
double score = candidate.Get_CurrentResources().ToNumber() * activePlayer + candidate.Get_ResourcesPerTurn().ToNumber() * 2
+ (candidate.Get_Total_MonsterDamage(game) + candidate.Get_Total_MonsterHealth(game)) / 2 + Math.Log(candidate.GetHealth()) / Math.Log(4.0 / 3.0) + activePlayer * -1.5
+ candidate.Get_ReadableHand().Count;
if (score < 1) // can't have 0 or less probability of winning unless you've actually lost already
{
score = 1;
}
totalScore += score;
if (candidate == player)
{
playerScore = score;
}
activePlayer *= 0;
}
return(playerScore / totalScore);
}