public void Run(Clock clock, IImpactSeaLevelRiseState state, IDimensions dimensions)
{
var s = state;
var t = clock.Current;
if (clock.IsFirstTimestep)
{
foreach (var r1 in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
foreach (var r2 in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
double immsumm = 0;
foreach (var i in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
immsumm += s.migrate[i, r1];
}
s.imigrate[r1, r2] = s.migrate[r2, r1] / immsumm;
}
var t0 = clock.StartTime;
s.landloss[t0, r1] = 0.0;
s.cumlandloss[t0, r1] = 0.0;
s.cumwetlandloss[t0, r1] = 0.0;
s.wetlandgrowth[t0, r1] = 0.0;
}
}
else
{
// slr in m/year
double ds = s.sea[t] - s.sea[t - 1];
foreach (var r in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
double ypc = s.income[t, r] / s.population[t, r] * 1000.0;
double ypcprev = s.income[t - 1, r] / s.population[t - 1, r] * 1000.0;
double ypcgrowth = ypc / ypcprev - 1.0;
if (t == Timestep.FromYear(1951))
ypcgrowth = 0;
// Needs to be in $bn per km^2
// Income is in billion, area is in km^2
double incomedens = s.income[t, r] / s.area[t, r];
double incomedensprev = s.income[t - 1, r] / s.area[t - 1, r];
double incomedensgrowth = incomedens / incomedensprev - 1.0;
// In population/km^2
// population is in million, area is in km^2
double popdens = s.population[t, r] / s.area[t, r] * 1000000.0;
double popdensprev = s.population[t - 1, r] / s.area[t - 1, r] * 1000000.0;
double popdensgrowth = popdens / popdensprev - 1.0;
// Unit of dryval is $bn/km^2
s.dryval[t, r] = s.dvbm * Math.Pow(incomedens / s.incdens, s.dvydl);
// Unit of wetval is $bn/km^2
s.wetval[t, r] = s.wvbm *
Math.Pow(ypc / s.slrwvypc0, s.wvel) *
Math.Pow(popdens / s.slrwvpopdens0, s.wvpdl) *
Math.Pow((s.wetland90[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r]) / s.wetland90[r], s.wvsl);
double potCumLandloss = Math.Min(s.maxlandloss[r], s.cumlandloss[t - 1, r] + s.dlbm[r] * Math.Pow(s.sea[t], s.drylandlossparam[r]));
double potLandloss = potCumLandloss - s.cumlandloss[t - 1, r];
// If sea levels fall, no protection is build
if (ds < 0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// If the discount rate < -100% people will not build protection
else if ((1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) < 0.0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// Dryland value is worthless
else if (((1.0 + s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth) < 0.0))
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// Is protecting the coast infinitly expensive?
else if ((1.0 / (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth)) >= 1)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// Is dryland infinitly valuable?
else if (((1.0 + s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth) / (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth)) >= 1.0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 1;
}
// Is wetland infinitly valuable?
else if (((1.0 + s.wvel * ypcgrowth + s.wvpdl * popdensgrowth + s.wvsl * s.wetlandgrowth[t - 1, r]) / (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth)) >= 1.0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
else
{
// NPV of protecting the whole coast
// pc is in $bn/m
s.npprotcost[t, r] = s.pc[r] * ds * (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) / (s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth);
// NPV of wetland
if ((1.0 + s.wvel * ypcgrowth + s.wvpdl * popdensgrowth + s.wvsl * s.wetlandgrowth[t - 1, r]) < 0.0)
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
else
s.npwetcost[t, r] = s.wmbm[r] * ds * s.wetval[t, r] * (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) / (s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth - s.wvel * ypcgrowth - s.wvpdl * popdensgrowth - s.wvsl * s.wetlandgrowth[t - 1, r]);
// NPV of dryland
if ((1.0 + s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth) < 0.0)
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
else
s.npdrycost[t, r] = potLandloss * s.dryval[t, r] * (1 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) / (s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth - s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth);
// Calculate protection level
s.protlev[t, r] = Math.Max(0.0, 1.0 - 0.5 * (s.npprotcost[t, r] + s.npwetcost[t, r]) / s.npdrycost[t, r]);
if (s.protlev[t, r] > 1)
throw new Exception("protlevel >1 should not happen");
}
// Calculate actual wetland loss and cost
s.wetlandloss[t, r] = Math.Min(
s.wlbm[r] * ds + s.protlev[t, r] * s.wmbm[r] * ds,
s.wetmax[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r]);
s.cumwetlandloss[t, r] = s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r] + s.wetlandloss[t, r];
// Calculate wetland growth
s.wetlandgrowth[t, r] = (s.wetland90[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t, r]) / (s.wetland90[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r]) - 1.0;
s.wetcost[t, r] = s.wetval[t, r] * s.wetlandloss[t, r];
s.landloss[t, r] = (1.0 - s.protlev[t, r]) * potLandloss;
s.cumlandloss[t, r] = s.cumlandloss[t - 1, r] + s.landloss[t, r];
s.drycost[t, r] = s.dryval[t, r] * s.landloss[t, r];
s.protcost[t, r] = s.protlev[t, r] * s.pc[r] * ds;
if (s.landloss[t, r] < 0)
s.leave[t, r] = 0;
else
s.leave[t, r] = s.coastpd[r] * popdens * s.landloss[t, r];
s.leavecost[t, r] = s.emcst * ypc * s.leave[t, r] / 1000000000;
}
foreach (var destination in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
double enter = 0.0;
foreach (var source in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
enter += s.leave[t, source] * s.imigrate[source, destination];
}
s.enter[t, destination] = enter;
}
foreach (var r in dimensions.GetValues<Region>())
{
double ypc = s.income[t, r] / s.population[t, r] * 1000.0;
s.entercost[t, r] = s.immcst * ypc * s.enter[t, r] / 1000000000;
}
}
}
public void Run(Clock clock, IImpactSeaLevelRiseState state, IDimensions dimensions)
{
var s = state;
var t = clock.Current;
if (clock.IsFirstTimestep)
{
foreach (var r1 in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
foreach (var r2 in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
double immsumm = 0;
foreach (var i in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
immsumm += s.migrate[i, r1];
}
s.imigrate[r1, r2] = s.migrate[r2, r1] / immsumm;
}
var t0 = clock.StartTime;
s.landloss[t0, r1] = 0.0;
s.cumlandloss[t0, r1] = 0.0;
s.cumwetlandloss[t0, r1] = 0.0;
s.wetlandgrowth[t0, r1] = 0.0;
}
}
else
{
// slr in m/year
double ds = s.sea[t] - s.sea[t - 1];
foreach (var r in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
double ypc = s.income[t, r] / s.population[t, r] * 1000.0;
double ypcprev = s.income[t - 1, r] / s.population[t - 1, r] * 1000.0;
double ypcgrowth = ypc / ypcprev - 1.0;
if (t == Timestep.FromYear(1951))
{
ypcgrowth = 0;
}
// Needs to be in $bn per km^2
// Income is in billion, area is in km^2
double incomedens = s.income[t, r] / s.area[t, r];
double incomedensprev = s.income[t - 1, r] / s.area[t - 1, r];
double incomedensgrowth = incomedens / incomedensprev - 1.0;
// In population/km^2
// population is in million, area is in km^2
double popdens = s.population[t, r] / s.area[t, r] * 1000000.0;
double popdensprev = s.population[t - 1, r] / s.area[t - 1, r] * 1000000.0;
double popdensgrowth = popdens / popdensprev - 1.0;
// Unit of dryval is $bn/km^2
s.dryval[t, r] = s.dvbm * Math.Pow(incomedens / s.incdens, s.dvydl);
// Unit of wetval is $bn/km^2
s.wetval[t, r] = s.wvbm *
Math.Pow(ypc / s.slrwvypc0, s.wvel) *
Math.Pow(popdens / s.slrwvpopdens0, s.wvpdl) *
Math.Pow((s.wetland90[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r]) / s.wetland90[r], s.wvsl);
double potCumLandloss = Math.Min(s.maxlandloss[r], s.dlbm[r] * Math.Pow(s.sea[t], s.drylandlossparam[r]));
double potLandloss = potCumLandloss - s.cumlandloss[t - 1, r];
// If sea levels fall, no protection is build
if (ds < 0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// If the discount rate < -100% people will not build protection
else if ((1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) < 0.0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// Dryland value is worthless
else if (((1.0 + s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth) < 0.0))
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// Is protecting the coast infinitly expensive?
else if ((1.0 / (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth)) >= 1)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
// Is dryland infinitly valuable?
else if (((1.0 + s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth) / (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth)) >= 1.0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 1;
}
// Is wetland infinitly valuable?
else if (((1.0 + s.wvel * ypcgrowth + s.wvpdl * popdensgrowth + s.wvsl * s.wetlandgrowth[t - 1, r]) / (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth)) >= 1.0)
{
s.npprotcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
s.protlev[t, r] = 0;
}
else
{
// NPV of protecting the whole coast
// pc is in $bn/m
s.npprotcost[t, r] = s.pc[r] * ds * (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) / (s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth);
// NPV of wetland
if ((1.0 + s.wvel * ypcgrowth + s.wvpdl * popdensgrowth + s.wvsl * s.wetlandgrowth[t - 1, r]) < 0.0)
{
s.npwetcost[t, r] = 0;
}
else
{
s.npwetcost[t, r] = s.wmbm[r] * ds * s.wetval[t, r] * (1.0 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) / (s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth - s.wvel * ypcgrowth - s.wvpdl * popdensgrowth - s.wvsl * s.wetlandgrowth[t - 1, r]);
}
// NPV of dryland
if ((1.0 + s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth) < 0.0)
{
s.npdrycost[t, r] = 0;
}
else
{
s.npdrycost[t, r] = potLandloss * s.dryval[t, r] * (1 + s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth) / (s.slrprtp[r] + ypcgrowth - s.dvydl * incomedensgrowth);
}
// Calculate protection level
s.protlev[t, r] = Math.Max(0.0, 1.0 - 0.5 * (s.npprotcost[t, r] + s.npwetcost[t, r]) / s.npdrycost[t, r]);
if (s.protlev[t, r] > 1)
{
throw new Exception("protlevel >1 should not happen");
}
}
// Calculate actual wetland loss and cost
s.wetlandloss[t, r] = Math.Min(
s.wlbm[r] * ds + s.protlev[t, r] * s.wmbm[r] * ds,
s.wetmax[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r]);
s.cumwetlandloss[t, r] = s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r] + s.wetlandloss[t, r];
// Calculate wetland growth
s.wetlandgrowth[t, r] = (s.wetland90[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t, r]) / (s.wetland90[r] - s.cumwetlandloss[t - 1, r]) - 1.0;
s.wetcost[t, r] = s.wetval[t, r] * s.wetlandloss[t, r];
s.landloss[t, r] = (1.0 - s.protlev[t, r]) * potLandloss;
s.cumlandloss[t, r] = s.cumlandloss[t - 1, r] + s.landloss[t, r];
s.drycost[t, r] = s.dryval[t, r] * s.landloss[t, r];
s.protcost[t, r] = s.protlev[t, r] * s.pc[r] * ds;
if (s.landloss[t, r] < 0)
{
s.leave[t, r] = 0;
}
else
{
s.leave[t, r] = s.coastpd[r] * popdens * s.landloss[t, r];
}
s.leavecost[t, r] = s.emcst * ypc * s.leave[t, r] / 1000000000;
}
foreach (var destination in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
double enter = 0.0;
foreach (var source in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
enter += s.leave[t, source] * s.imigrate[source, destination];
}
s.enter[t, destination] = enter;
}
foreach (var r in dimensions.GetValues <Region>())
{
double ypc = s.income[t, r] / s.population[t, r] * 1000.0;
s.entercost[t, r] = s.immcst * ypc * s.enter[t, r] / 1000000000;
}
}
}
