public void Calculate( string season, string week )
{
if ( week.Equals( "01" ) )
{
SetupSeason( season );
Dump2Xml();
return;
}
var hp = new HillinPredictor();
var theSeason = new NflSeason( season );
foreach ( var team in theSeason.TeamList )
{
// get teams game for the week
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " Doing {0}", team.TeamCode ) );
var upcomingWeek = new NFLWeek( season, week );
var previousWeek = upcomingWeek.PreviousWeek( upcomingWeek, loadgames:false, regularSeasonGamesOnly:true );
var prevWeek = string.Format( "{0:0#}", previousWeek.WeekNo );
var oldPowerRating = team.GetPowerRating( prevWeek );
if ( oldPowerRating == 0 )
{
return;
}
var newRating = new HillenPowerRating
{
Season = season,
TeamCode = team.TeamCode,
Week = week,
Quantity = oldPowerRating
};
var game = Utility.GetGameFor( season, prevWeek, team.TeamCode );
if ( game.GameDate != new DateTime( 1, 1, 1 ) )
{
var predictedResult = hp.PredictGame( game, null, game.GameDate );
var predictedMarginForTeam = predictedResult.MarginForTeam( team.TeamCode );
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Predicted Margin for {0} is {1}", TeamCode, predictedMarginForTeam ) );
var actualMarginForTeam = game.Result.MarginForTeam( team.TeamCode );
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( " Result of {2} means Actual Margin for {0} is {1}",
var newPowerRating = AdjustedPower( oldPowerRating, predictedMarginForTeam, actualMarginForTeam );
newRating.Quantity = newPowerRating;
}
PutRating( newRating );
}
Dump2Xml();
}
public void Calculate(string season, string week)
{
if (week.Equals("01"))
{
SetupSeason(season);
Dump2Xml();
return;
}
var hp = new HillinPredictor();
var theSeason = new NflSeason(season);
foreach (var team in theSeason.TeamList)
{
// get teams game for the week
Utility.Announce(string.Format(" Doing {0}", team.TeamCode));
var upcomingWeek = new NFLWeek(season, week);
var previousWeek = upcomingWeek.PreviousWeek(upcomingWeek, loadgames: false, regularSeasonGamesOnly: true);
var prevWeek = string.Format("{0:0#}", previousWeek.WeekNo);
var oldPowerRating = team.GetPowerRating(prevWeek);
if (oldPowerRating == 0)
{
return;
}
var newRating = new HillenPowerRating
{
Season = season,
TeamCode = team.TeamCode,
Week = week,
Quantity = oldPowerRating
};
var game = Utility.GetGameFor(season, prevWeek, team.TeamCode);
if (game.GameDate != new DateTime(1, 1, 1))
{
var predictedResult = hp.PredictGame(game, null, game.GameDate);
var predictedMarginForTeam = predictedResult.MarginForTeam(team.TeamCode);
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Predicted Margin for {0} is {1}", TeamCode, predictedMarginForTeam ) );
var actualMarginForTeam = game.Result.MarginForTeam(team.TeamCode);
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( " Result of {2} means Actual Margin for {0} is {1}",
var newPowerRating = AdjustedPower(oldPowerRating, predictedMarginForTeam, actualMarginForTeam);
newRating.Quantity = newPowerRating;
}
PutRating(newRating);
}
Dump2Xml();
}
private decimal AdjustForResult(decimal teamsPowerRating, decimal opponentsPowerRating,
NFLGame game, string teamCode)
{
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Adjusting initial rating of {0} for {2} based on the game {1}",
// teamsPowerRating, game.GameCodeOut(), TeamCode ) );
// calculate difference to prediction
var predictor = new HillinPredictor();
var predictedResult = predictor.PredictGame(game, null, game.GameDate);
var predictedMarginForTeam = predictedResult.MarginForTeam(TeamCode);
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Predicted Margin for {0} is {1}", TeamCode, predictedMarginForTeam ) );
var actualMarginForTeam = game.Result.MarginForTeam(TeamCode);
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( " Result of {2} means Actual Margin for {0} is {1}",
// TeamCode, actualMarginForTeam, game.Result.LogResult() ) );
var difference = actualMarginForTeam - predictedMarginForTeam;
var absDiff = Math.Abs(difference);
// look up modifier
var modifier = 0.0M;
if (absDiff > 14.5M)
modifier = 3.0M;
else if (absDiff > 9.5M)
modifier = 2.0M;
else if (absDiff > 4.5M)
modifier = 1.0M;
if (difference < 0)
{
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Modifier for {0} is {1}",
// TeamCode, -modifier ) );
return teamsPowerRating -= modifier;
}
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Modifier for {0} is {1}",
// TeamCode, modifier ) );
return teamsPowerRating += modifier;
}