public RtDecayParam CopyToDecayParam(RtDecayParam param)
{
param.EasyRt1 = rt1;
param.EasyRt2 = rt2;
param.DaysToOne = dayIdx;
param.DecayFactor = ft1;
param.DecayFactorNext = ft2;
return(param);
}
public RtDecayParam MakeRtDecayParam(bool bSystem, int idx = -1)
{
var param = new RtDecayParam {
//UseOnForecast = UseOnForecast,
PostDecayFactorRt2 = getPostDecayFactorRt2(bSystem),
Fourstep = DetailSettings && FourstepEnabled,
StartDate = getParamStartDate(idx, bSystem)._parseDateTime(),
StartDateFourstep = getParamStartDateFourstepStr(idx)._parseDateTime(),
DaysToOne = getParamDaysToOne(idx, bSystem),
DecayFactor = getParamDecayFactor(idx, bSystem),
DaysToNext = getParamDaysToNext(idx, bSystem),
RtMax = getParamMaxRt(idx),
RtMin = getParamMinRt(idx),
EasyRt1 = getParamEasyRt1(idx, bSystem),
EasyRt2 = getParamEasyRt2(idx, bSystem),
DecayFactorNext = getParamDecayFactorNext(idx, bSystem),
DaysToRt1 = getParamDaysToRt1(idx),
Rt1 = getParamRt1(idx),
DaysToRt2 = getParamDaysToRt2(idx),
Rt2 = getParamRt2(idx),
DaysToRt3 = getParamDaysToRt3(idx),
Rt3 = getParamRt3(idx),
DaysToRt4 = getParamDaysToRt4(idx),
Rt4 = getParamRt4(idx),
DaysToRt5 = getParamDaysToRt5(idx),
Rt5 = getParamRt5(idx),
DaysToRt6 = getParamDaysToRt6(idx),
Rt6 = getParamRt6(idx),
};
if ((param.DaysToRt1 + param.DaysToRt2 + param.DaysToRt3 + param.DaysToRt4 + param.DaysToRt5 + param.DaysToRt6) == 0)
{
param.DaysToRt1 = 10;
}
return(param);
}
/// <summary>各種推計値の計算</summary>
/// <param name="infData"></param>
/// <param name="rtDecayParam">not null で、書き換えられてもよいデータである必要がある</param>
/// <param name="skipDays">実データの初めから表示開始日までの日数</param>
/// <param name="numFullDays">全表示候補日の数(1年間とか)</param>
/// <param name="extensionDays"></param>
/// <param name="predStartDt"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public UserPredictData predictValuesEx(InfectData infData, RtDecayParam rtDecayParam, int skipDays, int numFullDays, int extensionDays, DateTime?predStartDt)
{
//logger.Trace("ENTER");
var firstRealDate = infData.Dates.First();
DateTime realEndDate = predStartDt?.AddDays(-1) ?? DateTime.MaxValue;
DateTime infEndDate = infData.Dates.Last();
if (realEndDate > infEndDate)
{
realEndDate = infEndDate;
}
int realDays = (realEndDate - firstRealDate).Days + 1;
int totalDays = skipDays + numFullDays;
if (rtDecayParam.StartDate > realEndDate)
{
rtDecayParam.StartDate = realEndDate;
}
if (rtDecayParam.StartDateFourstep > realEndDate)
{
rtDecayParam.StartDateFourstep = realEndDate;
}
//logger.Debug($"rtDecayParam.StartDate={rtDecayParam.StartDate.ToLongDateString()}, " +
// $"StartDateFourstep={rtDecayParam.StartDateFourstep.ToLongDateString()}, " +
// $"EffectiveStartDate={rtDecayParam.EffectiveStartDate.ToLongDateString()}");
const int ExtraDaysForAverage = Constants.EXTRA_DAYS_FOR_AVERAGE;
// 逆算移動平均
double[] revAverage = new double[totalDays + ExtraDaysForAverage];
// 予想実効再生産数
double[] fullPredRt = new double[totalDays + ExtraDaysForAverage];
int predStartIdx = (rtDecayParam.EffectiveStartDate - firstRealDate).Days;
if (predStartIdx < 0 || predStartIdx >= infData.Average.Length)
{
logger.Warn($"PredStartIdx({predStartIdx}) is out of range. "
+ $"rtDecayParam.EffectiveStartDate({rtDecayParam.EffectiveStartDate}) may not be valid. "
+ $"Use realEndDate={realEndDate} instead");
predStartIdx = (realEndDate - firstRealDate).Days;
}
Array.Copy(infData.Average, revAverage, predStartIdx);
int predRtLen = rtDecayParam.CalcAndCopyPredictRt(infData.Rt, predStartIdx, fullPredRt, realDays, extensionDays + ExtraDaysForAverage);
for (int i = 0; i < predRtLen; ++i)
{
int idx = predStartIdx + i;
var rt = fullPredRt[idx];
if (idx >= 7 && idx < revAverage.Length && rt > 0)
{
revAverage[idx] = Math.Pow(rt, 7.0 / 5.0) * revAverage[idx - 7];
}
}
predRtLen -= ExtraDaysForAverage;
double[] revAveAverage = new double[totalDays + ExtraDaysForAverage]; // 逆算移動平均の平均
for (int i = 3; i < predRtLen; ++i)
{
int idx = predStartIdx + i;
int margin = i._highLimit(ExtraDaysForAverage - 1);
int beg = idx - margin;
int end = idx + margin + 1;
if (beg >= 0 && end <= revAverage.Length)
{
revAveAverage[idx] = revAverage[beg..end].Sum() / (margin * 2 + 1);
/// <summary>
/// 各種推計値の計算
/// </summary>
/// <param name="rtDecayParam">書き換えられてもよいデータである必要がある</param>
/// <param name="skipDays">実データの初めから表示開始日までの日数</param>
/// <param name="numFullDays">全表示候補日の数(1年間とか)</param>
/// <param name="predStartDt">予測開始日</param>
/// <returns>(PredictInfectData, 表示開始から予測終了までの日数)</returns>
public static UserPredictData PredictValuesEx(InfectData infData, RtDecayParam rtDecayParam, int skipDays, int numFullDays, int extensionDays, DateTime?predStartDt = null)
{
return(new UserPredictData().predictValuesEx(infData, rtDecayParam, skipDays, numFullDays, extensionDays, predStartDt));
}
