// move/class predictors are already global instances, so no need to make them members
public GamePredictor(List <scorer> scorers, int numDrawPredictors)
{
DrawSequences = new ClassSequence[numDrawPredictors];
DrawPredictors = new TranscendentDrawPredictor[numDrawPredictors];
for (int i = 0; i < numDrawPredictors; i++)
{
DrawSequences[i] = new ClassSequence();
DrawPredictors[i] = new TranscendentDrawPredictor(scorers, AllDrawPredictors);
}
ClassPredictor = new TranscendentClassPredictor(scorers, AllClassPredictors);
MovePredictor = new TranscendentMovePredictor(scorers, AllMovePredictors);
// underlying predictions
SimpleMovePredictors.ForEach(p => p.MakeNextPrediction(MoveSequence));
SimpleDrawPredictors.ForEach(p => p.MakeNextPrediction(DrawSequences[0])); // sequence 0/1 identical initially
AllClassPredictors.ForEach(p => p.MakeNextPrediction(ClassSequence));
// metapredictions
MovePredictor.MakePredictions();
ClassPredictor.MakePredictions();
foreach (TranscendentDrawPredictor p in DrawPredictors)
{
p.MakePredictions();
}
}
public char GetNextMove()
{
PredictedMoveAction movePrediction = MovePredictor.GetNextPrediction();
PredictedClassAction classPrediction = ClassPredictor.GetNextPrediction();
bool classPredictorWins = classPrediction.YourClass != NORMAL &&
classPrediction.Score > 2 * Math.Max(0.5, movePrediction.Score);
bool expectingD = (classPredictorWins ? classPrediction.YourClass : movePrediction.YourMove) == D;
bool expectingW = (classPredictorWins ? classPrediction.YourClass : movePrediction.YourMove) == W;
int numDraws = DynamiteController.ScoreKeeper.PointsForRound;
if (numDraws >= 2 && numDraws < 2 + DrawSequences.Length)
{
SimpleDrawPredictors.ForEach(p => p.MakeNextPrediction(DrawSequences[numDraws - 2]));
DrawPredictors[numDraws - 2].MakePredictions();
PredictedClassAction drawPrediction = DrawPredictors[numDraws - 2].GetNextPrediction();
if (drawPrediction.Score > 1.5 && drawPrediction.YourClass == D) // TODO: Parameter 1.5 to optimise
{
return(W);
}
else if (drawPrediction.YourClass == NORMAL) // TODO: Should probably still look at score before deciding to do this (e.g. at least > 0)
{
return(D);
}
else // TODO: Should fall back to move predictor rather than random? e.g. just fall through instead?
{
return(RandomRPS());
}
}
if (numDraws == 1)
{
double drawsRemaining = DynamiteController.EstimateDrawsRemaining();
double dynamitesRemaining = DynamiteController.EstimateDynamitesRemaining();
double p = dynamitesRemaining / drawsRemaining;
if (Rand.NextDouble() < p && !expectingW)
{
return(D);
}
}
// TODO: Again, fall back to other predictors?
if (numDraws >= 2)
{
return(expectingD ? W : (expectingW ? RandomRPS() : D));
}
return(classPredictorWins ? (classPrediction.YourClass == D ? W : RandomRPS()) : movePrediction.Play);
}
