public void RunAnalyzing()
{
var allSeasons = leagueRepo.GetAllLeagueSeasons(leagueRepo.GetLaLiga());
foreach (var season in allSeasons)
{
var standingTable = systemRepo.GetStandingTable(season);
if (!standingTable.AnalysisDone)
{
AnalyzeLeagueSeason(season, standingTable);
}
else
{
Console.WriteLine($"Season: {season.LeagueSeasonId} [{season.StartYear}-{season.StartYear + 1}] have been already analyzed. Skip.");
}
}
}
public static void CheckRoundStats(PredictionData data, Game game)
{
var leagueRepo = new LeagueDataRepository();
var analysisRepo = new AnalysisDataRepository();
var allSeasons = leagueRepo.GetAllLeagueSeasons(leagueRepo.GetLaLiga()).OrderByDescending(s => s.StartYear).ToList();
int currentSeasonId = allSeasons.First().LeagueSeasonId;
var currentSeasonRounds = leagueRepo.GetCurrentSeasonRounds(currentSeasonId);
currentSeasonRounds = currentSeasonRounds.Where(r => r.RoundNumber <= game.SeasonRound.RoundNumber && CheckRound(r))
.OrderByDescending(r => r.RoundNumber).Take(5).ToList();
var currentSeasonRoundsStats = analysisRepo.GetAverageRoundStats(currentSeasonId);
var previousSeasonRoundsStats = allSeasons.Count > 1 ? analysisRepo.GetAverageRoundStats(allSeasons[1].LeagueSeasonId) : null;
var previous2SeasonRoundsStats = allSeasons.Count > 2 ? analysisRepo.GetAverageRoundStats(allSeasons[2].LeagueSeasonId) : null;
//average
var averageHomeWins = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.HomeWinsCount_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.HomeWinsCount_Average) / 2;
var averagDraws = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.DrawsCount_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.DrawsCount_Average) / 2;
var averageAwayWins = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.AwayWinsCount_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.AwayWinsCount_Average) / 2;
var averageBttsYes = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_Yes_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_Yes_Average) / 2;
var averageBttsNo = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_No_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_No_Average) / 2;
var averageTotalOver = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.GamesOver2_5_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.GamesOver2_5_Average) / 2;
var averagTotalUnder = (previous2SeasonRoundsStats.GamesUnder2_5_Average + previousSeasonRoundsStats.GamesUnder2_5_Average) / 2;
//get maximal diff compared current season with last seasons
var currentDiffHomeWins = averageHomeWins - currentSeasonRoundsStats.HomeWinsCount_Average;
var currentDiffDraws = averagDraws - currentSeasonRoundsStats.DrawsCount_Average;
var currentDiffAwayWins = averageAwayWins - currentSeasonRoundsStats.AwayWinsCount_Average;
var currentDiffBttsYes = averageBttsYes - currentSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_Yes_Average;
var currentDiffBttsNo = averageBttsNo - currentSeasonRoundsStats.BTTS_No_Average;
var currentDiffTotalOver = averageTotalOver - currentSeasonRoundsStats.GamesOver2_5_Average;
var currentDiffTotalUnder = averagTotalUnder - currentSeasonRoundsStats.GamesUnder2_5_Average;
var maxDiff = currentDiffHomeWins;
if (currentDiffDraws > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffDraws;
}
if (currentDiffAwayWins > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffAwayWins;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffHomeWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffDraws)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffAwayWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsYes;
if (currentDiffBttsNo > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsNo;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsYes)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalOver;
if (currentDiffTotalUnder > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalUnder;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalOver)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= RoundStatsCoef;
}
//get maximal diff compared last 5 rounds with last seasons
currentDiffHomeWins = 0;
currentDiffDraws = 0;
currentDiffAwayWins = 0;
currentDiffBttsYes = 0;
currentDiffBttsNo = 0;
currentDiffTotalOver = 0;
currentDiffTotalUnder = 0;
int i = 1;
foreach (var round in currentSeasonRounds)
{
currentDiffHomeWins += (averageHomeWins - round.HomeWinsCount) / i;
currentDiffDraws += (averagDraws - round.DrawsCount) / i;
currentDiffAwayWins += (averageAwayWins - round.AwayWinsCount) / i;
currentDiffBttsYes += (averageBttsYes - round.BTTS_Yes) / i;
currentDiffBttsNo += (averageBttsNo - round.BTTS_No) / i;
currentDiffTotalOver += (averageTotalOver - round.GamesOver2_5) / i;
currentDiffTotalUnder += (averagTotalUnder - round.GamesUnder2_5) / i;
i++;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffHomeWins;
if (currentDiffDraws > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffDraws;
}
if (currentDiffAwayWins > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffAwayWins;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffHomeWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.HomeWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffDraws)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.DrawProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffAwayWins)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.AwayWinProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsYes;
if (currentDiffBttsNo > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffBttsNo;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsYes)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsYesProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffBttsNo)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.BttsNoProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalOver;
if (currentDiffTotalUnder > maxDiff)
{
maxDiff = currentDiffTotalUnder;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalOver)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalOverProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
if (maxDiff == currentDiffTotalUnder)
{
data.CalculatedProbabilities.TotalUnderProbability *= RoundStatsCoefLastRounds;
}
}
private void SaveFootballDataModelToDb(FootballDataModel match, ref int processedGames)
{
bool onlyCreated;
var leagueSeason = leagueDataRepo.CreateAndSaveLeagueSeason(_startYear, leagueDataRepo.GetLaLiga());
var homeTeam = leagueDataRepo.GetFootballTeam(match.HomeTeam, leagueSeason, "FootballData");
var awayTeam = leagueDataRepo.GetFootballTeam(match.AwayTeam, leagueSeason, "FootballData");
Game matchDb = null;
try
{
matchDb = leagueDataRepo.GetGame(homeTeam, awayTeam, match.MatchDate, leagueSeason, out onlyCreated);
}
catch (Exception ex)
{
return;
}
if (onlyCreated || matchDb.Result == 0) //update game record
{
//Console.WriteLine("Game record only created - will be processed");
matchDb.AwayTeamGoals = match.FullTimeAwayTeamGoals;
matchDb.HomeTeamGoals = match.FullTimeHomeTeamGoals;
if (matchDb.HomeTeamGoals > matchDb.AwayTeamGoals)
{
matchDb.Result = GameResult.HomeWin;
}
else if (matchDb.HomeTeamGoals < matchDb.AwayTeamGoals)
{
matchDb.Result = GameResult.AwayWin;
}
else
{
matchDb.Result = GameResult.Draw;
}
leagueDataRepo.UpdateGameRecord(matchDb);
processedGames++;
}
var matchStats = leagueDataRepo.GetGameStats(matchDb.GameId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game stats
{
matchStats.Game = matchDb;
matchStats.HalfTimeHomeGoals = match.HalfTimeHomeTeamGoals;
matchStats.HalfTimeAwayGoals = match.HalfTimeAwayTeamGoals;
if (matchStats.HalfTimeHomeGoals > matchStats.HalfTimeAwayGoals)
{
matchStats.HalfTimeResult = GameResult.HomeWin;
}
else if (matchStats.HalfTimeHomeGoals < matchStats.HalfTimeAwayGoals)
{
matchStats.HalfTimeResult = GameResult.AwayWin;
}
else
{
matchStats.HalfTimeResult = GameResult.Draw;
}
matchStats.HomeTeamShots = match.HomeTeamShots;
matchStats.AwayTeamShots = match.AwayTeamShots;
matchStats.HomeTeamTargetShots = match.HomeTeamShotsOnTarget;
matchStats.AwayTeamTargetShots = match.AwayTeamShotsOnTarget;
matchStats.HomeTeamFouls = match.HomeTeamFouls;
matchStats.AwayTeamFouls = match.AwayTeamFouls;
matchStats.HomeTeamCorners = match.HomeTeamCorners;
matchStats.AwayTeamCorners = match.AwayTeamCorners;
matchStats.HomeTeamYCards = match.HomeTeamYellowCards;
matchStats.AwayTeamYCards = match.AwayTeamYellowCards;
matchStats.HomeTeamRedCards = match.HomeTeamRedCards;
matchStats.AwayTeamRedCards = match.AwayTeamRedCards;
matchStats.HomeTeamOffsides = match.HomeTeamOffsides;
matchStats.AwayTeamOffsides = match.AwayTeamOffsides;
leagueDataRepo.UpdateGameStats(matchStats);
}
var bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Bet365");
var bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.B365_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.B365_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.B365_AwayWin;
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Over = match.B365_TotalMore2_5;
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Under = match.B365_TotalLess2_5;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Blue Square");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.BS_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.BS_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.BS_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Bet&Win");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.BW_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.BW_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.BW_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Gamebookers");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.GB_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.GB_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.GB_AwayWin;
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Over = match.GB_TotalMore2_5;
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Under = match.GB_TotalLess2_5;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Interwetten");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.IW_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.IW_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.IW_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Pinnacle");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.Pinnacle_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.Pinnacle_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.Pinnacle_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Sporting Odds");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.SO_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.SO_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.SO_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Sportingbet");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.SB_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.SB_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.SB_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Stan James");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.SJ_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.SJ_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.SJ_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Stanleybet");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.Stanleybet_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.Stanleybet_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.Stanleybet_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("VC");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.VC_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.VC_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.VC_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("William Hill");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.HomeWinCoef = match.WH_HomeWin;
bookmakerOdd.DrawCoef = match.WH_Draw;
bookmakerOdd.AwayWinCoef = match.WH_AwayWin;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Total average odds");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Over = match.Average_TotalMore2_5;
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Under = match.Average_TotalLess2_5;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
bookmaker = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmaker("Total maximal odds");
bookmakerOdd = bookmakerRepo.GetBookmakerOdds(matchDb.GameId, bookmaker.BookmakerId, out onlyCreated);
if (onlyCreated) //update game record
{
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Over = match.Max_TotalMore2_5;
bookmakerOdd.Total2_5Under = match.Max_TotalLess2_5;
bookmakerRepo.UpdateBookmakerOdds(bookmakerOdd);
}
}