public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null)
{
game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
}
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null)
{
game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
}
game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
var weekIndex = Int32.Parse(game.Week) - 1;
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap(homeLetter, awayLetter);
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
//
// I give 3/4 strength to the letter power rating because it is adjusted every week and
// better takes into account a team's current form. The number power ratings though more
// objective, are totally dependant on Scores, which at times can be deceptive.
var homeNumberAvgRating = (game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[0] +
game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[weekIndex]) / 2.0M;
var awayNumberAvgRating = (game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[0] +
game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[weekIndex]) / 2.0M;
// home advantage
homeNumberAvgRating += 2.5M;
var numberRating = (homeNumberAvgRating - awayNumberAvgRating);
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = RoundToNearestHalfPoint((0.75M * ratingGap) + (0.25M * numberRating));
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap / 2));
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap * -1) / 2);
return(new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore));
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null)
{
game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
}
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null)
{
game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
}
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[0].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[0].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap(homeLetter, awayLetter);
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = ratingGap;
var decimalEquivalent = DanGordan.CalculateSpreadsAsDecimals(ratingGap);
if (ratingGap > 0)
{
// home win
game.HomeDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to home
game.AwayDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to away
}
else
{
// away win
game.AwayDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to away
game.HomeDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to home
}
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap / 2));
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap * -1) / 2);
return(new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore));
}
