public static int GameProjection(NFLGame g, string playerTeamCode, string playerCategory, string playerRole)
{
var projection = 0;
if (playerRole != Constants.K_ROLE_STARTER) return projection;
// is a starter
switch (playerCategory)
{
case Constants.K_QUARTERBACK_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeTdp : g.ProjectedAwayTdp;
break;
case Constants.K_RUNNINGBACK_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeTdr : g.ProjectedAwayTdr;
break;
case Constants.K_RECEIVER_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome(playerTeamCode) ? g.ProjectedHomeTdp/2 : g.ProjectedAwayTdp/2;
break;
case Constants.K_KICKER_CAT:
projection = g.IsHome( playerTeamCode ) ? g.ProjectedHomeFg : g.ProjectedAwayFg;
break;
}
#if DEBUG
Utility.Announce(string.Format("Game {0} projection for {1} {2} {3} is {4}",
g.GameKey(), playerTeamCode, playerCategory, playerRole, projection ) );
#endif
return projection;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if (game.HomeNflTeam == null) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
if (game.AwayNflTeam == null) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam(game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.HomeTeam);
game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating = Masters.Sm.GetGordan(game.Season, game.Season + game.AwayTeam);
var weekIndex = Int32.Parse(game.Week) - 1;
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[weekIndex].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap(homeLetter, awayLetter);
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
//
// I give 3/4 strength to the letter power rating because it is adjusted every week and
// better takes into account a team's current form. The number power ratings though more
// objective, are totally dependant on Scores, which at times can be deceptive.
var homeNumberAvgRating = ( game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[ 0 ] +
game.HomeNflTeam.NumberRating[ weekIndex ] ) / 2.0M;
var awayNumberAvgRating = ( game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[ 0 ] +
game.AwayNflTeam.NumberRating[ weekIndex ] ) / 2.0M;
// home advantage
homeNumberAvgRating += 2.5M;
var numberRating = ( homeNumberAvgRating - awayNumberAvgRating );
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = RoundToNearestHalfPoint((0.75M * ratingGap) + (0.25M * numberRating));
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap / 2));
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32((ratingGap * -1) / 2);
return new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore);
}
public void TestSingleGameProjection()
{
var game = new NFLGame( "2015:01-A" );
var ppg = new PlayerProjectionGenerator(null);
ppg.Execute( game );
Assert.IsTrue( ppg != null );
}
public decimal BackTest()
{
// for each instance that has a line
#if DEBUG
DataSet ds = _tflWs.GetGames( 2005, 13 );
#else
DataSet ds = _tflWs.GetAllGames();
#endif
DataTable dt = ds.Tables["sched"];
foreach (DataRow dr in dt.Rows)
{
NFLGame game = new NFLGame(dr);
NFLBet bet = IsBettable( game );
if ( bet == null )
{}
else
{
switch ( bet.Result() )
{
case "Win":
M_wins++;
break;
case "Loss":
Losses++;
break;
case "Push":
Pushes++;
break;
}
}
}
return Utility.Clip( M_wins, Losses, Pushes );
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
const int avgScore = 21;
var homeRating = RatingsService.GetNibbleRatingFor( game.HomeNflTeam, predictionDate );
var awayRating = RatingsService.GetNibbleRatingFor( game.AwayNflTeam, predictionDate );
var homeOff = homeRating.Offence;
var homeDef = homeRating.Defence;
var awayOff = awayRating.Offence;
var awayDef = awayRating.Defence;
var homeScore = avgScore + ((homeOff + awayDef) / 2) + 3; // 3pts home field advantage
var awayScore = avgScore + ((awayOff + homeDef) / 2);
homeScore = Utility.PickAScore(homeScore);
awayScore = Utility.PickAScore(awayScore);
if (homeScore == awayScore) homeScore++; // no ties
var res = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore );
//TODO: Nibble predictor does not predict Tdp or Tdr
if (AuditTrail)
{
AuditPrediction(game, awayDef, awayOff, homeOff, res, homeDef);
if ( StorePrediction )
StorePredictedResult( game, res );
}
return res;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame( NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate )
{
if ( persistor == null ) StorePrediction = false;
var homePower = game.HomeNflTeam.GetPowerRating( game.Week );
var awayPower = game.AwayNflTeam.GetPowerRating( game.Week );
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "PredictGame: Home Power {0} v Away Power {1}",
// homePower, awayPower ) );
// Add 2.5 to the Home teams power rating
homePower += 2.5M;
// Compare Power Rating to get the line
var line = homePower - awayPower;
// Estrapolate the score from the line using 21 point average
var homeScore = 21.0M;
var awayScore = 21.0M ;
if ( line > 0 )
homeScore += line;
if ( line < 0 )
awayScore -= line;
var intHomeScore = Int32.Parse( Math.Round( homeScore, 0 ).ToString() ) ;
var intAwayScore = Int32.Parse( Math.Round( awayScore, 0 ).ToString() );
var res = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, intHomeScore, game.AwayTeam, intAwayScore );
if ( StorePrediction )
StorePredictedResult( game, res );
//Utility.Announce( string.Format( "PredictGame: Result predicted - {0}", res.LogResult() ) );
return res;
}
public NFLBet IsBettable( NFLGame game )
{
NFLBet bet = null;
string revengeTeam = "";
string revengeGame = "";
TimeSpan aYear = new TimeSpan( 365, 0, 0, 0 );
DataSet ds = tflWS.GetGamesBetween( game.HomeTeam, game.AwayTeam, DateTime.Now.Subtract( aYear ) );
DataTable dt = ds.Tables["SCHED"];
dt.DefaultView.Sort = "GAMEDATE ASC";
foreach (DataRow dr in dt.Rows)
{
if ( dr.RowState != DataRowState.Deleted )
{
NFLGame aGame = new NFLGame( dr );
revengeTeam = ( aGame.HomeWin() ) ? aGame.AwayTeam : aGame.HomeTeam;
revengeGame = aGame.ScoreOut( revengeTeam ) + " " + aGame.GameCodeOut();
}
}
if ( revengeTeam.Length > 0 )
bet = new NFLBet( revengeTeam, game, Name + " - " + revengeGame, ConfidenceLevel() );
return bet;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
var res = game.Played() ? new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, game.HomeScore, game.AwayTeam, game.AwayScore )
: new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, 21, game.AwayTeam, 17 );
return res;
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
if ( game.HomeNflTeam == null ) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season + game.HomeTeam );
if ( game.AwayNflTeam == null ) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season + game.AwayTeam );
var homeLetter = game.HomeNflTeam.LetterRating[ 0 ].Trim();
var awayLetter = game.AwayNflTeam.LetterRating[ 0 ].Trim();
// home team
var ratingGap = DanGordan.RatingGap( homeLetter, awayLetter );
// home teams get 2.5 points home field advantage
ratingGap += 2.5M;
// if the rating gap is positive its a home win
game.GordanLine = ratingGap;
var decimalEquivalent = DanGordan.CalculateSpreadsAsDecimals( ratingGap );
if ( ratingGap > 0 )
{
// home win
game.HomeDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to home
game.AwayDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to away
}
else
{
// away win
game.AwayDecEquivalent = decimalEquivalent; // .5 pt win = .507 to away
game.HomeDecEquivalent = 1.0M - decimalEquivalent; // .493 to home
}
var homeScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32( ( ratingGap/2 ) );
var awayScore = 21 + Convert.ToInt32( ( ratingGap*-1 )/2 );
return new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore );
}
public decimal BackTest()
{
// for each instance that has a line
#if DEBUG
DataSet ds = tflWS.GetGames( 2005, 13 );
#else
DataSet ds = tflWS.GetAllGames();
#endif
DataTable dt = ds.Tables["sched"];
foreach (DataRow dr in dt.Rows)
{
NFLGame game = new NFLGame(dr);
if ( HomeDog( game ) )
{
switch ( game.ResultvsSpread( game.HomeTeam ) )
{
case "Win":
M_wins++;
break;
case "Loss":
Losses++;
break;
case "Push":
Pushes++;
break;
}
}
}
return Utility.Clip( M_wins, Losses, Pushes );
}
public Prediction Get( string method, string season, string week, string gameCode )
{
var prediction = new Prediction();
var ds = Utility.TflWs.GetPrediction(method, season, week, gameCode);
if (ds.Tables[ 0 ].Rows.Count != 1) return prediction;
var game = new NFLGame( string.Format( "{0}:{1}-{2}", season, week, gameCode ) );
prediction.Method = method;
prediction.Season = season;
prediction.Week = week;
prediction.GameCode = gameCode;
prediction.HomeScore = IntValue( ds, "HomeScore" );
prediction.AwayScore = IntValue( ds, "AwayScore" );
// also do a result
var result = new NFLResult( home: game.HomeTeam, homePts: prediction.HomeScore,
away: game.AwayTeam, awayPts: prediction.AwayScore )
{
HomeTDp = IntValue( ds, "htdp" ), HomeTDr = IntValue( ds, "htdr" ),
HomeTDd = IntValue( ds, "htdd" ), HomeTDs = IntValue( ds, "htds" ),
AwayTDp = IntValue( ds, "atdp" ), AwayTDr = IntValue( ds, "atdr" ),
AwayTDd = IntValue( ds, "atdd" ), AwayTDs = IntValue( ds, "atds" ),
HomeYDp = IntValue( ds, "hydp" ), AwayYDp = IntValue( ds, "aydp" ),
HomeYDr = IntValue( ds, "hydr" ), AwayYDr = IntValue( ds, "aydr" ),
AwayFg = IntValue( ds, "afg" ), HomeFg = IntValue( ds, "hfg" )
};
prediction.NflResult = result;
return prediction;
}
public void TestUpdateGameActuals()
{
var g = new NFLGame( "2016:09-A" );
g.RefreshTotals();
var g2 = new NFLGame( "2016:09-A" );
Assert.IsTrue( g2.Spread == g.Spread );
}
public void TestMatchUpReportSeasonOpener2014()
{
var g = new NFLGame("2014:01-A");
var mur = new MatchupReport(g);
mur.Render(writeProjection: false);
Assert.IsTrue(File.Exists(mur.FileOut), string.Format("Cannot find {0}", mur.FileOut));
}
public void TestPlayerGameProjection()
{
var g = new NFLGame("2014:01-N"); // IC@DB
g.LoadPrediction();
var p = PlayerProjection.GameProjection( g, "DB", Constants.K_QUARTERBACK_CAT, Constants.K_ROLE_STARTER );
Assert.IsTrue(p.Equals(2));
}
public void Execute( NFLGame game )
{
if ( pipeline == null ) InitialiseThePipeLine();
var msg = new PlayerGameProjectionMessage {Game = game, PlayerCache = PlayerCache};
msg.Game.PlayerGameMetrics = new List<PlayerGameMetrics>();
if (pipeline != null) pipeline.Execute( msg );
}
public NflPerformance( string seasonIn, string weekIn, decimal epIn )
{
// constructor
Season = Int32.Parse( seasonIn );
Week = Int32.Parse( weekIn );
ExperiencePoints = epIn;
Game = new NFLGame( seasonIn, weekIn );
}
public void AddGame(NFLGame g)
{
if (! _gameHt.ContainsKey(g.GameKey()))
{
_gameHt.Add(g.GameKey(), g);
IsDirty = true;
}
}
public void TestRenderOfGameProjection()
{
var game = new NFLGame("2016:01-I"); // CH @ HT
var cut = new GameProjection( game );
cut.Render();
Assert.IsTrue( File.Exists( cut.FileName() ),
string.Format( "Cannot find {0}", cut.FileName() ) );
}
public void TestPlayerProjectionPrediction()
{
var g = new NFLGame( "2013:01-A" ); // YYYY:0W-X
var prediction = g.GetPrediction( "unit" );
Assert.IsNotNull( prediction );
Assert.AreEqual( 0, prediction.AwayTDr, "Away TDr should be 0" );
Assert.AreEqual( 1, prediction.AwayTDp, "Away TDp should be 1" );
Assert.AreEqual( 1, prediction.AwayFg, "Away FG should be 1" );
}
public void TestDefensiveScoringCalculator()
{
var week = new NFLWeek( seasonIn: "2016", weekIn: "13" );
var team = new NflTeam( "KC" );
var game = new NFLGame( gameKey: "2016:13-B" ); // KC @ AF
var sut = new DefensiveScoringCalculator( week, offset:0 );
sut.Calculate( team: team, game: game );
Assert.AreEqual( expected: 11.0M, actual: team.FantasyPoints );
}
public NFLBet( string teamCodeIn, NFLGame gameIn, string reason, Confidence confidenceIn )
{
TeamToBetOn = teamCodeIn;
game = gameIn;
reasonList = new ArrayList();
confidence = confidenceIn;
vigorish = 0.1D; // the amount that is raked off the winnings
AddReason( reason );
}
public void TestGameSummary()
{
var game = new NFLGame("2014:01-A");
var sut = new GameSummary(game);
sut.Render();
var fileOut = sut.FileName();
Assert.IsTrue(File.Exists(fileOut), string.Format("Cannot find {0}", fileOut));
}
public void TestYahooProjectedPointsFrTomBrady2013Week01()
{
var p = new NFLPlayer( "BRADTO01" );
var g = new NFLGame( "2013:01-B" );
g.LoadPrediction();
var c = new YahooCalculator();
var msg = c.Calculate( p, g );
var expected = 18; // 2 TDp and 250 YDp
Assert.AreEqual( expected, msg.Player.Points );
}
public void TestYahooProjectedPointsForSammyWatkinsWeek16()
{
var p = new NFLPlayer( "WATKSA01" );
var g = new NFLGame( "2014:16-M" );
g.LoadPrediction();
var c = new YahooCalculator();
var msg = c.Calculate( p, g );
var expected = 13; // 1 TDp and 75 YDc
Assert.AreEqual( expected, msg.Player.Points );
}
public void TestYahooProjectedPointsForPeytonManning2014Week01()
{
var p = new NFLPlayer( "NEWTCA01" );
var g = new NFLGame( "2015:08-N" );
g.LoadPrediction();
var c = new YahooCalculator();
var msg = c.Calculate( p, g );
var expected = 6; // 0 TDp and 150 YDp
Assert.AreEqual( expected, msg.Player.Points );
}
public void TestYahooProjectedPointsForLataviusMurray2016Week01()
{
var p = new NFLPlayer( "MURRLA01" );
var g = new NFLGame( "2016:01-F" );
g.LoadPrediction();
var c = new YahooCalculator();
var msg = c.Calculate( p, g );
var expected = 18; // 125(1)
Assert.AreEqual( expected, msg.Player.Points );
}
public void TestJayCutler()
{
var g = new NFLGame( "2016:01-I" );
var msg = new PlayerGameProjectionMessage();
msg.Player = new NFLPlayer( "CUTLJA01" );
msg.Game = g;
msg.Prediction = g.GetPrediction( "unit" );
var cut = new PullMetricsFromPrediction( msg );
Assert.IsNotNull( msg.Game.PlayerGameMetrics.Count > 12 );
msg.Dao = new DbfPlayerGameMetricsDao();
var saveStep = new SavePlayerGameMetrics( msg );
}
public NFLBet IsBettable( NFLGame game )
{
NFLBet bet = null;
if ( game.Dog() == game.HomeTeam )
{
// Have they lost yet
bet = new NFLBet( game.Dog(), game, Name + " - " + game.Spread, ConfidenceLevel() );
}
return bet;
}
public void TestPlayerRecordingMetrics()
{
var season = "2014";
var week = "01";
var gamecode = "M";
var game = new NFLGame( string.Format("{0}:{1}-{2}", season, week, gamecode) );
var sut = new RecordOfActualMetricsReport(season, week);
var player = new NFLPlayer("KAEPCO01");
player.TallyScores(season, Int32.Parse(week) );
player.TallyStats(season, Int32.Parse(week) );
Console.WriteLine(player.CurrentGameMetrics);
var result = sut.RecordMetrics(player, game);
Assert.IsTrue( result.Substring( 0, 4 ) != "Fail");
}
public NFLResult PredictGame(NFLGame game, IStorePredictions persistor, DateTime predictionDate)
{
NFLResult res;
//RosterLib.Utility.Announce( string.Format( "WizPredictor.PredictGame: Wk{2} {0}@{1}",
// game.AwayTeam, game.HomeTeam, game.Week ) );
if ( game.Played() )
res = new NFLResult( game.HomeTeam, game.HomeScore, game.AwayTeam, game.AwayScore );
else
{
if ( game.HomeNflTeam == null ) game.HomeNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season, game.HomeTeam );
if ( game.AwayNflTeam == null ) game.AwayNflTeam = Masters.Tm.GetTeam( game.Season, game.AwayTeam );
var homeMatrix = game.HomeNflTeam.GetMatrix();
var awayMatrix = game.AwayNflTeam.GetMatrix();
// Homescore = Tdp*7 + Tdr*7 + 3
var homePointsPassing = Tdp( homeMatrix.PoPoints - awayMatrix.PdPoints );
var homePointsRunning = Tdr( homeMatrix.RoPoints - awayMatrix.RdPoints );
var homeScore = homePointsPassing + homePointsRunning + 3;
// Awayscore = Tdp*7 + Tdr*7
var awayPointsPassing = Tdp( awayMatrix.PoPoints - homeMatrix.PdPoints );
var awayPointsRunning = Tdr( awayMatrix.RoPoints - homeMatrix.RdPoints );
var awayScore = awayPointsPassing + awayPointsRunning;
if ( homeScore == awayScore ) homeScore++; // no ties
res = new NFLResult(game.HomeTeam, homeScore, game.AwayTeam, awayScore)
{
AwayTDp = (awayPointsPassing/7),
HomeTDp = (homePointsPassing/7),
AwayTDr = (awayPointsRunning/7),
HomeTDr = (homePointsRunning/7)
};
if ( AuditTrail )
{
Utility.Announce( string.Format( "Wiz Prediction Wk{4} {0}@{1} {2}-{3} ",
game.AwayTeam, game.HomeTeam, res.AwayScore, res.HomeScore, game.Week ) );
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " hTDr({0}) hTDp({1}) aTDr({2}) aTDp({3})",
res.HomeTDr, res.HomeTDp, res.AwayTDr, res.AwayTDp ));
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " hPOpts({0:#.#}) hROpts({1:#.#}) aRDpts({2:#.#}) aPDpts({3:#.#})",
homeMatrix.PoPoints, homeMatrix.RoPoints, awayMatrix.RdPoints, awayMatrix.PdPoints ));
Utility.Announce( string.Format( " aPOpts({0:#.#}) aROpts({1:#.#}) hRDpts({2:#.#}) hPDpts({3:#.#})",
awayMatrix.PoPoints, awayMatrix.RoPoints, homeMatrix.RdPoints, homeMatrix.PdPoints ));
}
}
return res;
}
